The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model Article Swipe
Stephen J. Cole
,
Enrique Martínez‐García
·
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2
This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility.We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting survey data on interest rate expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimate of Federal Reserve credibility in terms of forward guidance announcements is relatively high, which indicates muted forward guidance effectiveness relative to the fully credible case.Hence, anticipation effects are attenuated and, accordingly, output and inflation do not respond as favorably to forward guidance announcements.(2) The so-called "forward guidance puzzle" is shown to arise, at least in part, from the unrealistically large responses of macroeconomic variables to forward guidance statements in structural models that do not incorporate imperfect credibility and heterogeneous expectations.(3) Imperfect monetary authority credibility provides a plausible explanation to the evidence of forecasting error predictability based on forecasting disagreement found in the SPF data.Thus, accounting for imperfect credibility is important to model the formation of expectations in the economy and to understand the transmission mechanism of forward guidance announcements.
Related Topics
Concepts
Credibility
Imperfect
New Keynesian economics
Economics
Predictability
Forward guidance
Inflation (cosmology)
Anticipation (artificial intelligence)
Monetary policy
Econometrics
Central bank
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Inflation targeting
Macroeconomics
Computer science
Statistics
Physics
Linguistics
Artificial intelligence
Mathematics
Credit channel
Political science
Philosophy
Law
Theoretical physics
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2
- https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 2
- References
- 78
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4285485125
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
-
https://openalex.org/W4285485125Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian ModelWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2021Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2021-03-01Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Stephen J. Cole, Enrique Martínez‐GarcíaList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
-
https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
-
Credibility, Imperfect, New Keynesian economics, Economics, Predictability, Forward guidance, Inflation (cosmology), Anticipation (artificial intelligence), Monetary policy, Econometrics, Central bank, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Inflation targeting, Macroeconomics, Computer science, Statistics, Physics, Linguistics, Artificial intelligence, Mathematics, Credit channel, Political science, Philosophy, Law, Theoretical physicsTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
2Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
-
2022: 1, 2021: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
-
78Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
Full payload
| id | https://openalex.org/W4285485125 |
|---|---|
| doi | https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| ids.doi | https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| ids.openalex | https://openalex.org/W4285485125 |
| fwci | 0.88154694 |
| type | article |
| title | The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model |
| biblio.issue | 375 |
| biblio.volume | 2019 |
| biblio.last_page | |
| biblio.first_page | |
| topics[0].id | https://openalex.org/T10007 |
| topics[0].field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/20 |
| topics[0].field.display_name | Economics, Econometrics and Finance |
| topics[0].score | 0.9997000098228455 |
| topics[0].domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/2 |
| topics[0].domain.display_name | Social Sciences |
| topics[0].subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/2000 |
| topics[0].subfield.display_name | General Economics, Econometrics and Finance |
| topics[0].display_name | Monetary Policy and Economic Impact |
| topics[1].id | https://openalex.org/T14094 |
| topics[1].field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/20 |
| topics[1].field.display_name | Economics, Econometrics and Finance |
| topics[1].score | 0.9965000152587891 |
| topics[1].domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/2 |
| topics[1].domain.display_name | Social Sciences |
| topics[1].subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/2002 |
| topics[1].subfield.display_name | Economics and Econometrics |
| topics[1].display_name | Italy: Economic History and Contemporary Issues |
| topics[2].id | https://openalex.org/T11742 |
| topics[2].field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/20 |
| topics[2].field.display_name | Economics, Econometrics and Finance |
| topics[2].score | 0.9833999872207642 |
| topics[2].domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/2 |
| topics[2].domain.display_name | Social Sciences |
| topics[2].subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/2000 |
| topics[2].subfield.display_name | General Economics, Econometrics and Finance |
| topics[2].display_name | Economic Theory and Policy |
| is_xpac | False |
| apc_list | |
| apc_paid | |
| concepts[0].id | https://openalex.org/C2780224610 |
| concepts[0].level | 2 |
| concepts[0].score | 0.899103581905365 |
| concepts[0].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1530061 |
| concepts[0].display_name | Credibility |
| concepts[1].id | https://openalex.org/C2780310539 |
| concepts[1].level | 2 |
| concepts[1].score | 0.7452033758163452 |
| concepts[1].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12547192 |
| concepts[1].display_name | Imperfect |
| concepts[2].id | https://openalex.org/C10688316 |
| concepts[2].level | 3 |
| concepts[2].score | 0.7204504609107971 |
| concepts[2].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q936174 |
| concepts[2].display_name | New Keynesian economics |
| concepts[3].id | https://openalex.org/C162324750 |
| concepts[3].level | 0 |
| concepts[3].score | 0.672189474105835 |
| concepts[3].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134 |
| concepts[3].display_name | Economics |
| concepts[4].id | https://openalex.org/C197640229 |
| concepts[4].level | 2 |
| concepts[4].score | 0.6604598760604858 |
| concepts[4].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066 |
| concepts[4].display_name | Predictability |
| concepts[5].id | https://openalex.org/C202655504 |
| concepts[5].level | 5 |
| concepts[5].score | 0.6371946334838867 |
| concepts[5].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16556980 |
| concepts[5].display_name | Forward guidance |
| concepts[6].id | https://openalex.org/C200941418 |
| concepts[6].level | 2 |
| concepts[6].score | 0.5824154019355774 |
| concepts[6].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508 |
| concepts[6].display_name | Inflation (cosmology) |
| concepts[7].id | https://openalex.org/C176777502 |
| concepts[7].level | 2 |
| concepts[7].score | 0.532677948474884 |
| concepts[7].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4774623 |
| concepts[7].display_name | Anticipation (artificial intelligence) |
| concepts[8].id | https://openalex.org/C126285488 |
| concepts[8].level | 2 |
| concepts[8].score | 0.525698184967041 |
| concepts[8].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476 |
| concepts[8].display_name | Monetary policy |
| concepts[9].id | https://openalex.org/C149782125 |
| concepts[9].level | 1 |
| concepts[9].score | 0.5183454751968384 |
| concepts[9].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039 |
| concepts[9].display_name | Econometrics |
| concepts[10].id | https://openalex.org/C2992735868 |
| concepts[10].level | 3 |
| concepts[10].score | 0.46463775634765625 |
| concepts[10].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66344 |
| concepts[10].display_name | Central bank |
| concepts[11].id | https://openalex.org/C2776892200 |
| concepts[11].level | 3 |
| concepts[11].score | 0.4308464527130127 |
| concepts[11].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7647093 |
| concepts[11].display_name | Survey of Professional Forecasters |
| concepts[12].id | https://openalex.org/C185824701 |
| concepts[12].level | 3 |
| concepts[12].score | 0.42199257016181946 |
| concepts[12].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1193759 |
| concepts[12].display_name | Inflation targeting |
| concepts[13].id | https://openalex.org/C139719470 |
| concepts[13].level | 1 |
| concepts[13].score | 0.29795506596565247 |
| concepts[13].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680 |
| concepts[13].display_name | Macroeconomics |
| concepts[14].id | https://openalex.org/C41008148 |
| concepts[14].level | 0 |
| concepts[14].score | 0.259709894657135 |
| concepts[14].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198 |
| concepts[14].display_name | Computer science |
| concepts[15].id | https://openalex.org/C105795698 |
| concepts[15].level | 1 |
| concepts[15].score | 0.06926518678665161 |
| concepts[15].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483 |
| concepts[15].display_name | Statistics |
| concepts[16].id | https://openalex.org/C121332964 |
| concepts[16].level | 0 |
| concepts[16].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[16].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413 |
| concepts[16].display_name | Physics |
| concepts[17].id | https://openalex.org/C41895202 |
| concepts[17].level | 1 |
| concepts[17].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[17].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162 |
| concepts[17].display_name | Linguistics |
| concepts[18].id | https://openalex.org/C154945302 |
| concepts[18].level | 1 |
| concepts[18].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[18].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660 |
| concepts[18].display_name | Artificial intelligence |
| concepts[19].id | https://openalex.org/C33923547 |
| concepts[19].level | 0 |
| concepts[19].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[19].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395 |
| concepts[19].display_name | Mathematics |
| concepts[20].id | https://openalex.org/C88583849 |
| concepts[20].level | 4 |
| concepts[20].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[20].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5183768 |
| concepts[20].display_name | Credit channel |
| concepts[21].id | https://openalex.org/C17744445 |
| concepts[21].level | 0 |
| concepts[21].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[21].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442 |
| concepts[21].display_name | Political science |
| concepts[22].id | https://openalex.org/C138885662 |
| concepts[22].level | 0 |
| concepts[22].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[22].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891 |
| concepts[22].display_name | Philosophy |
| concepts[23].id | https://openalex.org/C199539241 |
| concepts[23].level | 1 |
| concepts[23].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[23].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748 |
| concepts[23].display_name | Law |
| concepts[24].id | https://openalex.org/C33332235 |
| concepts[24].level | 1 |
| concepts[24].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[24].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362 |
| concepts[24].display_name | Theoretical physics |
| keywords[0].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/credibility |
| keywords[0].score | 0.899103581905365 |
| keywords[0].display_name | Credibility |
| keywords[1].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/imperfect |
| keywords[1].score | 0.7452033758163452 |
| keywords[1].display_name | Imperfect |
| keywords[2].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/new-keynesian-economics |
| keywords[2].score | 0.7204504609107971 |
| keywords[2].display_name | New Keynesian economics |
| keywords[3].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/economics |
| keywords[3].score | 0.672189474105835 |
| keywords[3].display_name | Economics |
| keywords[4].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/predictability |
| keywords[4].score | 0.6604598760604858 |
| keywords[4].display_name | Predictability |
| keywords[5].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/forward-guidance |
| keywords[5].score | 0.6371946334838867 |
| keywords[5].display_name | Forward guidance |
| keywords[6].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation |
| keywords[6].score | 0.5824154019355774 |
| keywords[6].display_name | Inflation (cosmology) |
| keywords[7].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/anticipation |
| keywords[7].score | 0.532677948474884 |
| keywords[7].display_name | Anticipation (artificial intelligence) |
| keywords[8].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/monetary-policy |
| keywords[8].score | 0.525698184967041 |
| keywords[8].display_name | Monetary policy |
| keywords[9].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics |
| keywords[9].score | 0.5183454751968384 |
| keywords[9].display_name | Econometrics |
| keywords[10].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/central-bank |
| keywords[10].score | 0.46463775634765625 |
| keywords[10].display_name | Central bank |
| keywords[11].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/survey-of-professional-forecasters |
| keywords[11].score | 0.4308464527130127 |
| keywords[11].display_name | Survey of Professional Forecasters |
| keywords[12].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-targeting |
| keywords[12].score | 0.42199257016181946 |
| keywords[12].display_name | Inflation targeting |
| keywords[13].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomics |
| keywords[13].score | 0.29795506596565247 |
| keywords[13].display_name | Macroeconomics |
| keywords[14].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science |
| keywords[14].score | 0.259709894657135 |
| keywords[14].display_name | Computer science |
| keywords[15].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics |
| keywords[15].score | 0.06926518678665161 |
| keywords[15].display_name | Statistics |
| language | en |
| locations[0].id | doi:10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| locations[0].is_oa | True |
| locations[0].source | |
| locations[0].license | |
| locations[0].pdf_url | https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| locations[0].version | publishedVersion |
| locations[0].raw_type | journal-article |
| locations[0].license_id | |
| locations[0].is_accepted | True |
| locations[0].is_published | True |
| locations[0].raw_source_name | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Papers |
| locations[0].landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| indexed_in | crossref |
| authorships[0].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5048317932 |
| authorships[0].author.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5035-8284 |
| authorships[0].author.display_name | Stephen J. Cole |
| authorships[0].countries | US |
| authorships[0].affiliations[0].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I102461120 |
| authorships[0].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string | Department of Economics, Marquette University, P.O. Box 1881, Milwaukee, WI 53201, |
| authorships[0].affiliations[1].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I68415526 |
| authorships[0].affiliations[1].raw_affiliation_string | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 N. Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].id | https://openalex.org/I68415526 |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].ror | https://ror.org/05ks2fq79 |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].type | other |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].lineage | https://openalex.org/I1317239608, https://openalex.org/I68415526 |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].country_code | US |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].display_name | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].id | https://openalex.org/I102461120 |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].ror | https://ror.org/04gr4te78 |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].type | education |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].lineage | https://openalex.org/I102461120 |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].country_code | US |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].display_name | Marquette University |
| authorships[0].author_position | first |
| authorships[0].raw_author_name | Stephen J. Cole |
| authorships[0].is_corresponding | True |
| authorships[0].raw_affiliation_strings | Department of Economics, Marquette University, P.O. Box 1881, Milwaukee, WI 53201,, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 N. Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, |
| authorships[1].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5059842035 |
| authorships[1].author.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5736-361X |
| authorships[1].author.display_name | Enrique Martínez‐García |
| authorships[1].countries | US |
| authorships[1].affiliations[0].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I102461120 |
| authorships[1].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string | Department of Economics, Marquette University, P.O. Box 1881, Milwaukee, WI 53201, |
| authorships[1].affiliations[1].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I68415526 |
| authorships[1].affiliations[1].raw_affiliation_string | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 N. Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].id | https://openalex.org/I68415526 |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].ror | https://ror.org/05ks2fq79 |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].type | other |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].lineage | https://openalex.org/I1317239608, https://openalex.org/I68415526 |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].country_code | US |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].display_name | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| authorships[1].institutions[1].id | https://openalex.org/I102461120 |
| authorships[1].institutions[1].ror | https://ror.org/04gr4te78 |
| authorships[1].institutions[1].type | education |
| authorships[1].institutions[1].lineage | https://openalex.org/I102461120 |
| authorships[1].institutions[1].country_code | US |
| authorships[1].institutions[1].display_name | Marquette University |
| authorships[1].author_position | last |
| authorships[1].raw_author_name | Enrique Martínez-García |
| authorships[1].is_corresponding | False |
| authorships[1].raw_affiliation_strings | Department of Economics, Marquette University, P.O. Box 1881, Milwaukee, WI 53201,, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 N. Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, |
| has_content.pdf | True |
| has_content.grobid_xml | True |
| is_paratext | False |
| open_access.is_oa | True |
| open_access.oa_url | https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| open_access.oa_status | gold |
| open_access.any_repository_has_fulltext | False |
| created_date | 2025-10-10T00:00:00 |
| display_name | The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model |
| has_fulltext | True |
| is_retracted | False |
| updated_date | 2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776 |
| primary_topic.id | https://openalex.org/T10007 |
| primary_topic.field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/20 |
| primary_topic.field.display_name | Economics, Econometrics and Finance |
| primary_topic.score | 0.9997000098228455 |
| primary_topic.domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/2 |
| primary_topic.domain.display_name | Social Sciences |
| primary_topic.subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/2000 |
| primary_topic.subfield.display_name | General Economics, Econometrics and Finance |
| primary_topic.display_name | Monetary Policy and Economic Impact |
| related_works | https://openalex.org/W1985847475, https://openalex.org/W1965901095, https://openalex.org/W1931170263, https://openalex.org/W2259112270, https://openalex.org/W2027405617, https://openalex.org/W3125821834, https://openalex.org/W3123853170, https://openalex.org/W2117171432, https://openalex.org/W2127009463, https://openalex.org/W3124557023 |
| cited_by_count | 2 |
| counts_by_year[0].year | 2022 |
| counts_by_year[0].cited_by_count | 1 |
| counts_by_year[1].year | 2021 |
| counts_by_year[1].cited_by_count | 1 |
| locations_count | 1 |
| best_oa_location.id | doi:10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| best_oa_location.is_oa | True |
| best_oa_location.source | |
| best_oa_location.license | |
| best_oa_location.pdf_url | https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| best_oa_location.version | publishedVersion |
| best_oa_location.raw_type | journal-article |
| best_oa_location.license_id | |
| best_oa_location.is_accepted | True |
| best_oa_location.is_published | True |
| best_oa_location.raw_source_name | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Papers |
| best_oa_location.landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| primary_location.id | doi:10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| primary_location.is_oa | True |
| primary_location.source | |
| primary_location.license | |
| primary_location.pdf_url | https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| primary_location.version | publishedVersion |
| primary_location.raw_type | journal-article |
| primary_location.license_id | |
| primary_location.is_accepted | True |
| primary_location.is_published | True |
| primary_location.raw_source_name | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Papers |
| primary_location.landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp375r2 |
| publication_date | 2021-03-01 |
| publication_year | 2021 |
| referenced_works | https://openalex.org/W6857177763, https://openalex.org/W3023660006, https://openalex.org/W1482746352, https://openalex.org/W2965487962, https://openalex.org/W2803655745, https://openalex.org/W2036727797, https://openalex.org/W3022043949, https://openalex.org/W3122258024, https://openalex.org/W4247765758, https://openalex.org/W2110337991, https://openalex.org/W3125749836, https://openalex.org/W3121293400, https://openalex.org/W6674590234, https://openalex.org/W3122065104, https://openalex.org/W3126121421, https://openalex.org/W2264844509, https://openalex.org/W2342947627, https://openalex.org/W3124291032, https://openalex.org/W6604060110, https://openalex.org/W2903976885, https://openalex.org/W2018747484, https://openalex.org/W2308504190, https://openalex.org/W31477686, https://openalex.org/W3123279235, https://openalex.org/W3123857506, https://openalex.org/W2222557885, https://openalex.org/W1975063543, https://openalex.org/W2103325263, https://openalex.org/W1567813360, https://openalex.org/W2169724616, https://openalex.org/W2071156101, https://openalex.org/W1600373808, https://openalex.org/W2289878974, https://openalex.org/W6628783364, https://openalex.org/W3145475335, https://openalex.org/W3141350383, https://openalex.org/W2901068146, https://openalex.org/W2026103080, https://openalex.org/W3121995973, https://openalex.org/W2792850968, https://openalex.org/W2093299437, https://openalex.org/W2119550786, https://openalex.org/W2049239819, https://openalex.org/W1543862054, https://openalex.org/W2169417293, https://openalex.org/W2083818778, https://openalex.org/W6775844639, https://openalex.org/W3121968174, https://openalex.org/W3195591675, https://openalex.org/W1540757224, https://openalex.org/W2059199803, https://openalex.org/W2945637872, https://openalex.org/W1778451492, https://openalex.org/W2135422029, https://openalex.org/W6676468133, https://openalex.org/W6759996643, https://openalex.org/W2137289547, https://openalex.org/W1588300322, https://openalex.org/W3123970111, https://openalex.org/W4234722734, https://openalex.org/W2895357789, https://openalex.org/W6687171418, https://openalex.org/W3123373223, https://openalex.org/W6690170285, https://openalex.org/W6663906397, https://openalex.org/W3125987996, https://openalex.org/W2238548246, https://openalex.org/W3016304372, https://openalex.org/W3148038068, https://openalex.org/W3123146005, https://openalex.org/W582976506, https://openalex.org/W4388266609, https://openalex.org/W99404798, https://openalex.org/W1995278743, https://openalex.org/W2140898820, https://openalex.org/W2144395073, https://openalex.org/W2096779334, https://openalex.org/W2038998530 |
| referenced_works_count | 78 |
| abstract_inverted_index.a | 135 |
| abstract_inverted_index.an | 9 |
| abstract_inverted_index.as | 87 |
| abstract_inverted_index.at | 102 |
| abstract_inverted_index.do | 84, 122 |
| abstract_inverted_index.in | 8, 54, 104, 118, 150, 166 |
| abstract_inverted_index.is | 60, 98, 158 |
| abstract_inverted_index.of | 5, 39, 50, 56, 111, 141, 164, 175 |
| abstract_inverted_index.on | 32, 146 |
| abstract_inverted_index.to | 70, 89, 100, 114, 138, 160, 170 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(1) | 47 |
| abstract_inverted_index.New | 11 |
| abstract_inverted_index.SPF | 152 |
| abstract_inverted_index.The | 48, 93 |
| abstract_inverted_index.and | 82, 127, 169 |
| abstract_inverted_index.are | 77 |
| abstract_inverted_index.for | 21, 155 |
| abstract_inverted_index.not | 85, 123 |
| abstract_inverted_index.the | 3, 22, 37, 71, 107, 139, 151, 162, 167, 172 |
| abstract_inverted_index.This | 0 |
| abstract_inverted_index.U.S. | 23 |
| abstract_inverted_index.and, | 79 |
| abstract_inverted_index.bank | 17 |
| abstract_inverted_index.data | 31 |
| abstract_inverted_index.from | 36, 106 |
| abstract_inverted_index.rate | 34 |
| abstract_inverted_index.that | 121 |
| abstract_inverted_index.with | 14, 26 |
| abstract_inverted_index.based | 145 |
| abstract_inverted_index.error | 143 |
| abstract_inverted_index.found | 149 |
| abstract_inverted_index.fully | 72 |
| abstract_inverted_index.high, | 62 |
| abstract_inverted_index.large | 109 |
| abstract_inverted_index.least | 103 |
| abstract_inverted_index.model | 13, 161 |
| abstract_inverted_index.muted | 65 |
| abstract_inverted_index.paper | 1 |
| abstract_inverted_index.part, | 105 |
| abstract_inverted_index.shown | 99 |
| abstract_inverted_index.terms | 55 |
| abstract_inverted_index.which | 63 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Survey | 38 |
| abstract_inverted_index.arise, | 101 |
| abstract_inverted_index.models | 120 |
| abstract_inverted_index.output | 81 |
| abstract_inverted_index.survey | 30 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Federal | 24, 51 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Reserve | 25, 52 |
| abstract_inverted_index.central | 16 |
| abstract_inverted_index.economy | 168 |
| abstract_inverted_index.effects | 76 |
| abstract_inverted_index.forward | 6, 57, 66, 90, 115, 176 |
| abstract_inverted_index.methods | 28 |
| abstract_inverted_index.provide | 44 |
| abstract_inverted_index.puzzle" | 97 |
| abstract_inverted_index.respond | 86 |
| abstract_inverted_index.results | 43 |
| abstract_inverted_index."forward | 95 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Bayesian | 27 |
| abstract_inverted_index.credible | 73 |
| abstract_inverted_index.estimate | 19, 49 |
| abstract_inverted_index.evidence | 140 |
| abstract_inverted_index.examines | 2 |
| abstract_inverted_index.guidance | 7, 58, 67, 91, 96, 116, 177 |
| abstract_inverted_index.interest | 33 |
| abstract_inverted_index.monetary | 131 |
| abstract_inverted_index.provides | 134 |
| abstract_inverted_index.relative | 69 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(SPF).The | 42 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Imperfect | 130 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Keynesian | 12 |
| abstract_inverted_index.authority | 132 |
| abstract_inverted_index.estimated | 10 |
| abstract_inverted_index.favorably | 88 |
| abstract_inverted_index.formation | 163 |
| abstract_inverted_index.imperfect | 15, 125, 156 |
| abstract_inverted_index.important | 45, 159 |
| abstract_inverted_index.indicates | 64 |
| abstract_inverted_index.inflation | 83 |
| abstract_inverted_index.mechanism | 174 |
| abstract_inverted_index.plausible | 136 |
| abstract_inverted_index.responses | 110 |
| abstract_inverted_index.so-called | 94 |
| abstract_inverted_index.variables | 113 |
| abstract_inverted_index.accounting | 154 |
| abstract_inverted_index.attenuated | 78 |
| abstract_inverted_index.data.Thus, | 153 |
| abstract_inverted_index.exploiting | 29 |
| abstract_inverted_index.relatively | 61 |
| abstract_inverted_index.statements | 117 |
| abstract_inverted_index.structural | 119 |
| abstract_inverted_index.takeaways: | 46 |
| abstract_inverted_index.understand | 171 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Forecasters | 41 |
| abstract_inverted_index.case.Hence, | 74 |
| abstract_inverted_index.credibility | 20, 53, 126, 133, 157 |
| abstract_inverted_index.explanation | 137 |
| abstract_inverted_index.forecasting | 142, 147 |
| abstract_inverted_index.incorporate | 124 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Professional | 40 |
| abstract_inverted_index.accordingly, | 80 |
| abstract_inverted_index.anticipation | 75 |
| abstract_inverted_index.disagreement | 148 |
| abstract_inverted_index.expectations | 35, 165 |
| abstract_inverted_index.transmission | 173 |
| abstract_inverted_index.announcements | 59 |
| abstract_inverted_index.effectiveness | 4, 68 |
| abstract_inverted_index.heterogeneous | 128 |
| abstract_inverted_index.macroeconomic | 112 |
| abstract_inverted_index.announcements. | 178 |
| abstract_inverted_index.credibility.We | 18 |
| abstract_inverted_index.predictability | 144 |
| abstract_inverted_index.unrealistically | 108 |
| abstract_inverted_index.expectations.(3) | 129 |
| abstract_inverted_index.announcements.(2) | 92 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.max | 94 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.min | 89 |
| corresponding_author_ids | https://openalex.org/A5048317932 |
| countries_distinct_count | 1 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 2 |
| corresponding_institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I102461120, https://openalex.org/I68415526 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.80754494 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | False |