The Hidden Universe of Operationalizing Natural Experiments: Navigating Extreme Weather Article Swipe
Franziska Quoß
,
Lukas Rudolph
·
YOU?
·
· 2022
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/m5rz8
YOU?
·
· 2022
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/m5rz8
Natural or quasi-experimental research designs are based on exogenous variation oftentimes requiring operationalization before use in statistical tests: for this, researchers regularly lack clear theoretical guidance and are required to make threshold decisions. We show for three types of shocks -- extreme weather, immigration exposure, and commodity price changes -- that this leads to a vast menu of equally plausible measurements, which are used unsystematically in ensuing literatures. This hidden universe of operationalizations has consequences: drawing on geo-coded survey and weather panel data for Switzerland, we show that different measurements of extreme weather exposure exhibit vast statistical and geographic variation. Importantly, researchers can support arbitrary conclusions when using singular operationalizations while, in our case, the whole set indicates robust null effects. These results highlight that measurement decisions induce vast researcher degrees of freedom rarely made transparent. We consequently discuss how current practice could improve, concluding with a template and recommendations.
Related Topics
Concepts
Set (abstract data type)
Cluster analysis
Extreme weather
Null (SQL)
Core (optical fiber)
False positive paradox
Econometrics
Null hypothesis
Quality (philosophy)
Computer science
Natural (archaeology)
Data science
Mathematics
Data mining
Geography
Machine learning
Climate change
Epistemology
Biology
Programming language
Philosophy
Ecology
Telecommunications
Archaeology
Metadata
- Type
- preprint
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/m5rz8
- https://osf.io/m5rz8/download
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 2
- References
- 94
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4285729781
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4285729781Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
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https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/m5rz8Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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The Hidden Universe of Operationalizing Natural Experiments: Navigating Extreme WeatherWork title
- Type
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preprintOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2022Year of publication
- Publication date
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2022-07-18Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Franziska Quoß, Lukas RudolphList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/m5rz8Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://osf.io/m5rz8/downloadDirect link to full text PDF
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://osf.io/m5rz8/downloadDirect OA link when available
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Set (abstract data type), Cluster analysis, Extreme weather, Null (SQL), Core (optical fiber), False positive paradox, Econometrics, Null hypothesis, Quality (philosophy), Computer science, Natural (archaeology), Data science, Mathematics, Data mining, Geography, Machine learning, Climate change, Epistemology, Biology, Programming language, Philosophy, Ecology, Telecommunications, ArchaeologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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2Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 1, 2022: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
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94Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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