The Problem with Trade Measurement in International Relations Article Swipe
Lukas Linsi
,
Brian Burgoon
,
Daniel Mügge
·
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad020
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad020
Trade statistics are widely used in studies and policymaking focused on economic interdependence. Yet, researchers in International Relations (IR) have largely disregarded half the data available to study trade. Bilateral trade flows are usually recorded twice: by the sending economy as an export and by the receiving one as an import. These two values should match, but discrepancies between them tend to be large and pervasive. Most studies ignore this issue, which we label the “mirror problem” for short, by using only one entry. However, it is not self-evident which one is consistently most accurate. Hence, IR's reliance on error-prone trade statistics may be distorting its study of economic interdependence. This article explores this problem in three steps: first, we quantify the mirror problem in trade data. Second, we investigate the origins of the mirror problem, using statistical analyses, archival records, and interviews with statistical experts. Third, we illustrate the implications of the mirror problem through replications covering diverse topics in IR. We find that accounting for the mirror problem can variably strengthen, undermine, or overturn conclusions of such analyses. The findings underscore the severity of measurement problems in IR and suggest particular ways to address those problems.
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- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad020
- https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-pdf/67/2/sqad020/49623381/sqad020.pdf
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- Cited By
- 6
- References
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https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad020Digital Object Identifier
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The Problem with Trade Measurement in International RelationsWork title
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articleOpenAlex work type
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enPrimary language
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2023Year of publication
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2023-03-14Full publication date if available
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Lukas Linsi, Brian Burgoon, Daniel MüggeList of authors in order
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https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad020Publisher landing page
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https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-pdf/67/2/sqad020/49623381/sqad020.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
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hybridOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-pdf/67/2/sqad020/49623381/sqad020.pdfDirect OA link when available
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Statistical analysis, Economics, International trade, Psychology, Econometrics, Statistics, MathematicsTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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6Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 3, 2024: 1, 2023: 1, 2018: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| abstract_inverted_index.topics | 160 |
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| abstract_inverted_index.twice: | 36 |
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| abstract_inverted_index.address | 196 |
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| abstract_inverted_index.Abstract | 0 |
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| abstract_inverted_index.archival | 140 |
| abstract_inverted_index.covering | 158 |
| abstract_inverted_index.economic | 12, 109 |
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| abstract_inverted_index.findings | 182 |
| abstract_inverted_index.overturn | 176 |
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| abstract_inverted_index.severity | 185 |
| abstract_inverted_index.variably | 172 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Bilateral | 30 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Relations | 18 |
| abstract_inverted_index.accurate. | 95 |
| abstract_inverted_index.analyses, | 139 |
| abstract_inverted_index.analyses. | 180 |
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| cited_by_percentile_year.min | 89 |
| countries_distinct_count | 1 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 3 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].id | https://metadata.un.org/sdg/17 |
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| sustainable_development_goals[0].display_name | Partnerships for the goals |
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| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | True |