The Role of Exchangeability in Causal Inference Article Swipe

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Olli Saarela , David A. Stephens , Erica E. M. Moodie ·

YOU? · · 2023 · Open Access · · DOI: https://doi.org/10.1214/22-sts879

Though the notion of exchangeability has been discussed in the causal\ninference literature under various guises, it has rarely taken its original\nmeaning as a symmetry property of probability distributions. As this property\nis a standard component of Bayesian inference, we argue that in Bayesian causal\ninference it is natural to link the causal model, including the notion of\nconfounding and definition of causal contrasts of interest, to the concept of\nexchangeability. Here we propose a probabilistic between-group exchangeability\nproperty as an identifying condition for causal effects, relate it to\nalternative conditions for unconfounded inferences (commonly stated using\npotential outcomes) and define causal contrasts in the presence of\nexchangeability in terms of posterior predictive expectations for further\nexchangeable units. While our main focus is on a point treatment setting, we\nalso investigate how this reasoning carries over to longitudinal settings.\n

Related Topics

Contrast (Vision)

Causal Model

Computer Science

Statistical Inference

Mathematics

Artificial Intelligence

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Causal inference Inference Property (philosophy) Contrast (vision) Bayesian probability Predictive inference Bayesian inference Econometrics Causal model Frequentist inference Computer science Causal structure Statistical inference Mathematics Artificial intelligence Epistemology Statistics Philosophy Quantum mechanics Physics

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Type: article
Language: en
Landing Page: https://doi.org/10.1214/22-sts879
PDF: https://projecteuclid.org/journals/statistical-science/volume-38/issue-3/The-Role-of-Exchangeability-in-Causal-Inference/10.1214/22-STS879.pdf
OA Status: bronze
Cited By: 3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1214/22-sts879

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Title: The Role of Exchangeability in Causal Inference

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Language: en

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Publication year: 2023

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Publication date: 2023-02-22

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Authors: Olli Saarela, David A. Stephens, Erica E. M. Moodie

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Landing page: https://doi.org/10.1214/22-sts879

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Concepts: Causal inference, Inference, Property (philosophy), Contrast (vision), Bayesian probability, Predictive inference, Bayesian inference, Econometrics, Causal model, Frequentist inference, Computer science, Causal structure, Statistical inference, Mathematics, Artificial intelligence, Epistemology, Statistics, Philosophy, Quantum mechanics, Physics

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Cited by: 3

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