The role of non‐pharmaceutical interventions on influenza circulation during the COVID‐19 pandemic in nine tropical Asian countries Article Swipe
William W. Davis
,
Joshua A. Mott
,
Sonja J. Olsen
·
YOU?
·
· 2022
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12953
YOU?
·
· 2022
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12953
Background Low global influenza circulation was reported during the coronavirus‐19 pandemic. We explored relationships between non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and influenza in tropical Asian countries. Methods Using World Health Organization (WHO) surveillance data from 2015 to 2019 and the WHO shiny app, we constructed expected seasonal influenza epidemic curves from March 2020 to June 2021 and compared the timing, and average percent positivity with observed data. We used multivariate regression to test associations between ordinal NPI data (from the Oxford Stringency Index) 4 weeks before the expected 2020/21 epidemics and present adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) or relative proportion ratio (RPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Data from nine countries predicted 18 seasonal epidemics; seven were observed. Five started 6–24 weeks later, and all were 4–21 weeks shorter than expected. Five epidemics had lower maximum peak values (percent positivity), and all but one had lower average percent positivity than expected. All countries implemented NPIs. Each increased level of school closure reduced risk of an epidemic by 43% (IRR = 0.57, CI: 0.34, 0.95). Each increased level of canceling public events reduced the average percent positivity across the season by 44% (RPR = 0.56, CI: 0.39, 0.82) and each increased level in restricting internal movements reduced it by 41% (RPR = 0.59, CI: 0.36, 0.96). Other NPIs were not associated with changes. Conclusions Among nine countries, the 2020/21 seasonal epidemics were delayed, shorter, and less intense than expected. Although layered NPIs were difficult to tease apart, school closings, canceling public events, and restricting internal movements before influenza circulation seemed to reduce transmission.
Related Topics
Concepts
Demography
Pandemic
Psychological intervention
Confidence interval
Rate ratio
Medicine
Seasonal influenza
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Incidence (geometry)
Geography
Internal medicine
Mathematics
Infectious disease (medical specialty)
Geometry
Sociology
Psychiatry
Disease
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12953
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 35
- References
- 26
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4206148837
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4206148837Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12953Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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The role of non‐pharmaceutical interventions on influenza circulation during the COVID‐19 pandemic in nine tropical Asian countriesWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2022Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2022-01-08Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
William W. Davis, Joshua A. Mott, Sonja J. OlsenList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12953Publisher landing page
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12953Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Demography, Pandemic, Psychological intervention, Confidence interval, Rate ratio, Medicine, Seasonal influenza, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Incidence (geometry), Geography, Internal medicine, Mathematics, Infectious disease (medical specialty), Geometry, Sociology, Psychiatry, DiseaseTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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35Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 6, 2024: 9, 2023: 11, 2022: 9Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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26Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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