The Tipping Point Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) Article Swipe
Ricarda Winkelmann
,
Donovan Dennis
,
Jonathan F. Donges
,
Sina Loriani
,
Boris Sakschewski
,
Johan Rockström
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17399
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17399
While tipping points in the Earth system are recognized in the public and policy debate as one of the major risks of anthropogenic climate change, our current knowledge of their dynamics involves a broad range of uncertainties, and so far there is no systematic risk assessment quantifying the likelihood as well as the impacts of exceeding tipping points in the Earth system. Here we introduce the Tipping Point Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP, www.tipmip.org), a major international initiative setting out to fill this gap in a multi-model approach: Based on ensembles of simulations with Earth system models as well as offline models combined with current observations, the experiments will serve to assess (1) the risk of crossing critical thresholds in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, tropical and boreal forests as well as high-latitude permafrost; (2) the short- and long-term (committed) impacts of crossing individual tipping points; (3) the (ir)reversibility of impacts on different timescales; and (4) the role of the forcing rate. TIPMIP also sheds light on potential model shortcomings when it comes to such highly-nonlinear dynamics in the Earth system which may significantly change projections for the 21st century and beyond. The TIPMIP outcome will serve to generate a risk map, highlighting regions in the world which are most vulnerable to tipping transitions, which will be an important basis for forward-looking policy decisions.
Related Topics
Concepts
Tipping point (physics)
Coupled model intercomparison project
Environmental science
Point (geometry)
Climate change
Climate model
Geology
Engineering
Mathematics
Oceanography
Geometry
Electrical engineering
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- preprint
- Language
- en
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- https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17399
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 1
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
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All OpenAlex metadata
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https://openalex.org/W4392649127Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17399Digital Object Identifier
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The Tipping Point Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP)Work title
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preprintOpenAlex work type
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enPrimary language
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2024Year of publication
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2024-03-11Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Boris Sakschewski, Johan RockströmList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17399Publisher landing page
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17399Direct OA link when available
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Tipping point (physics), Coupled model intercomparison project, Environmental science, Point (geometry), Climate change, Climate model, Geology, Engineering, Mathematics, Oceanography, Geometry, Electrical engineeringTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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1Total citation count in OpenAlex
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| abstract_inverted_index.Intercomparison | 68 |
| abstract_inverted_index.forward-looking | 224 |
| abstract_inverted_index.highly-nonlinear | 179 |
| abstract_inverted_index.www.tipmip.org), | 71 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(ir)reversibility | 152 |
| abstract_inverted_index.beyond. The | 195 |
| abstract_inverted_index.decisions.  | 226 |
| abstract_inverted_index.system. Here | 61 |
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| cited_by_percentile_year.min | 90 |
| corresponding_author_ids | https://openalex.org/A5031563368 |
| countries_distinct_count | 1 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 6 |
| corresponding_institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I176453806, https://openalex.org/I4210161060, https://openalex.org/I4387154167 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].id | https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].score | 0.6499999761581421 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].display_name | Climate action |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.80300067 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | True |