Uncertainty in Drought Identification Due to Data Choices, and the Value of Triangulation Article Swipe
Mwenda Borona
,
Friedrich Busch
,
Tobias Krueger
,
Philippe Rufin
·
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0137.v1
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0137.v1
Droughts are complex and gradually evolving conditions of extreme water deficits which can compromise livelihoods and ecological integrity, especially in fragile arid and semi-arid regions that depend on rainfed farming, such as Kitui West in south-eastern Kenya. Against the background of low ground-station density, 10 gridded rainfall products and four gridded temperature products were used to generate an ensemble of 40 calculations of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to assess uncertainties in the onset, duration and magnitude of past droughts. These uncertainties were driven more by variations between the rainfall products than variations between the temperature products. Remaining ambiguities in drought occurrence could be resolved by complementing the quantitative analysis with ground-based information from key informants engaged in disaster relief, effectively formulating an ensemble approach to SPEI-based drought identification to aid decision making. The reported trend towards drier conditions in Eastern Africa was confirmed for Kitui West by the majority of data products, whereas the rainfall effect on the increasingly dry conditions was more subtle than annual and seasonal declines and greater annual variation, which warrants further investigation. Nevertheless, the effects of increasing droughts are already felt on the ground and warrant decisive action.
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Metadata
- Type
- preprint
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0137.v1
- https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202111.0137/v1/download
- OA Status
- green
- Cited By
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- References
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https://openalex.org/W3213484113Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
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https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0137.v1Digital Object Identifier
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Uncertainty in Drought Identification Due to Data Choices, and the Value of TriangulationWork title
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preprintOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
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2021Year of publication
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2021-11-08Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Mwenda Borona, Friedrich Busch, Tobias Krueger, Philippe RufinList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202111.0137.v1Publisher landing page
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https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202111.0137/v1/downloadDirect link to full text PDF
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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greenOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202111.0137/v1/downloadDirect OA link when available
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Arid, Livelihood, Environmental science, Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, Identification (biology), Climatology, Agriculture, Geography, Meteorology, Ecology, Archaeology, Biology, GeologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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5Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2022: 4, 2021: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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| referenced_works | https://openalex.org/W1219612341, https://openalex.org/W2104157175, https://openalex.org/W2409717638, https://openalex.org/W2492189390, https://openalex.org/W2126322845, https://openalex.org/W1963726388, https://openalex.org/W1967064886, https://openalex.org/W2885334474, https://openalex.org/W2944939347, https://openalex.org/W2299732800, https://openalex.org/W1973158492, https://openalex.org/W1519662490, https://openalex.org/W2608303895, https://openalex.org/W3042564790, https://openalex.org/W3213484113, https://openalex.org/W3038051485, https://openalex.org/W2890843468, https://openalex.org/W2268461985, https://openalex.org/W4296928277, https://openalex.org/W2938707398, https://openalex.org/W1970669626, https://openalex.org/W2077968790, https://openalex.org/W3001118842, https://openalex.org/W3097020026, https://openalex.org/W2946730770, https://openalex.org/W2790238809, https://openalex.org/W2760156223, https://openalex.org/W2937854818, https://openalex.org/W2320068620, https://openalex.org/W2965472383, https://openalex.org/W2749760810, https://openalex.org/W1479862749, https://openalex.org/W3083386979, https://openalex.org/W1989120577, https://openalex.org/W2906814358, https://openalex.org/W3025949386, https://openalex.org/W2954049996, https://openalex.org/W2611772571, https://openalex.org/W6894463552, https://openalex.org/W2795581443, https://openalex.org/W2928735514, https://openalex.org/W2617886432, https://openalex.org/W2785895673, https://openalex.org/W3003949789, https://openalex.org/W3006954550, https://openalex.org/W2082819436, https://openalex.org/W2131035796, https://openalex.org/W2056804090, https://openalex.org/W1530440617, https://openalex.org/W2592963018, https://openalex.org/W2973053715, https://openalex.org/W2586297355, https://openalex.org/W3017274476, https://openalex.org/W2605487835, https://openalex.org/W2543820470, https://openalex.org/W1975693754, https://openalex.org/W47375727, https://openalex.org/W1952361440, https://openalex.org/W2170280355 |
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