Validation and Derivation of short-term prognostic risk score in acute decompensated heart failure in China Article Swipe
YOU?
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· 2022
· Open Access
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· DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1539372/v1
Background: Few prognostic risk scores (PRSs) have been widely applied in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We therefore externally validated three published PRSs (3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF) and derived a new PRS to predict the short-term prognosis in ADHF. Methods: A total of 4550 patients from the Heb-ADHF registry in China were randomly divided into the derivation and validation cohort (3:2). Discrimination of each PRS was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Logistic regression was used to select the predictors and create the new PRS. Calibration of the new PRS was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results: The AUROCs of the 3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF score in the derivation cohort were 0.55 (95% CI 0.53-0.57), 0.54 (95% CI 0.53-0.56), and 0.56 (95% CI 0.54-0.57), respectively. After logistic regression analysis, the new PRS computed as 1 × (diastolic blood pressure < 80 mmHg) + 2 × (lymphocyte > 1.11 × 10 9 /L) + 1 × (creatinine > 80 μmol/L) + 2 × (blood urea nitrogen > 21 mg/dL) + 1 × [BNP 500 to < 1500 pg/mL (NT-proBNP 2500 to < 7500 pg/mL)] or 3 × [BNP ≥ 1500 (NT-proBNP ≥ 7500) pg/mL] + 3 × (QRS fraction of electrocardiogram < 55%) + 4 × (ACEI/ARB not used) + 1 × (rhBNP used), with a better AUROC 0.67 (95% CI 0.64-0.70) and a good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 =3.366, P =0.186). The results in validation cohort verified these findings. Conclusions: The short-term prognostic values of 3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF score in ADHF patients were all poor, while the new PRS exhibited potential predictive ability. We firstly found the QRS fraction of electrocardiogram as a novel predictor for the short-term outcomes of ADHF. Our findings might help to recognize high-risk ADHF patients.
Related Topics
- Type
- preprint
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1539372/v1
- https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1539372/latest.pdf
- OA Status
- green
- Cited By
- 1
- References
- 26
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4223535035
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4223535035Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1539372/v1Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Validation and Derivation of short-term prognostic risk score in acute decompensated heart failure in ChinaWork title
- Type
-
preprintOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2022Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2022-04-12Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Hong-Liang Zhao, Xiaoli Gao, Yinghua Liu, Senlin Li, Qi Zhang, Weichao Shan, Qun Zheng, Jiang Zhou, Yong-zheng Liu, Li Liu, Nan Guo, Tian Hong-sen, Qingmin Wei, Xi-Tian Hu, Ying-Kai Cui, Xue Geng, Qian Wang, Wei CuiList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1539372/v1Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1539372/latest.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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greenOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1539372/latest.pdfDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
-
Medicine, Acute decompensated heart failure, Logistic regression, Internal medicine, Receiver operating characteristic, Heart failure, Cardiology, Cohort, CreatinineTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
1Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2023: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
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26Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| sustainable_development_goals[0].id | https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].score | 0.6499999761581421 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].display_name | Peace, Justice and strong institutions |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.48421745 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | False |