Richard Betts
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Evaluation of national Greenhouse Gas Removal potential under a changing climate using a process-based land surface model Open
Global warming and climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) will have multiple impacts on forest ecosystems. As the UK’s currently planned contribution to global efforts to mitigating these impacts, the Climate Change Act ha…
View article: Improving historical trends in the INFERNO fire model using the Human Development Index
Improving historical trends in the INFERNO fire model using the Human Development Index Open
Earth System Models (ESM), have struggled to reproduce the historical decline in burnt area, with discrepancies largely attributed to the under-representation of anthropogenic fire suppression. Key factors such as agricultural expansion, l…
View article: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Open
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updat…
View article: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Open
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published here https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15327155 Smith et al., 2025a) to produce upda…
Abrupt Changes in the Subpolar North Atlantic and Their Impact on the Climate of the British Isles Open
There has been increasing interest in the possibility of abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic and their impacts on northwestern Europe. Here, we investigate such abrupt changes in a large ensemble of CMIP6 climate models. We defin…
View article: Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C
Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C Open
Limited progress with mitigation makes it almost inevitable that global warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded. This realization confronts Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with a choice either to sta…
View article: Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C minimises projected global increases in fire weather days, but adaptation to new fire regimes is still needed
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C minimises projected global increases in fire weather days, but adaptation to new fire regimes is still needed Open
Understanding future shifts in fire weather risk, including peak season, transitional and off-season, will be crucial for reshaping fire preparation and management in order to adapt to climate change. This study explores future climate-dri…
Forecasting the annual CO2 rise at Mauna Loa Open
For the last 9 years, the Met Office has issued forecasts of the annual increment in atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa, accounting for both anthropogenic emissions and the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on na…
View article: Very high fire danger in UK in 2022 at least 6 times more likely due to human-caused climate change
Very high fire danger in UK in 2022 at least 6 times more likely due to human-caused climate change Open
The UK experienced an unprecedented heatwave in 2022, with temperatures reaching 40 °C for the first time in recorded history. This extreme heat was accompanied by widespread fires across London and elsewhere in England, which destroyed ho…
Spikes in UK wildfire emissions driven by peatland fires in dry years Open
Wildfires on peatlands can nearly double global fire-driven carbon emissions, requiring centuries to re-sequester carbon (C) losses. Peatland fires require sufficiently hot, dry conditions and/or drainage for the peat to burn. Although the…
Future global water scarcity partially alleviated by vegetation responses to atmospheric CO <sub>2</sub> and climate change Open
Accurate water scarcity projections are essential for effective adaptation strategies. Most existing studies rely on hydrology models that often neglect the effects of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on the water cycle , such a…
The assessment of change in human heat stress risk in Brazil projected by the CMIP6 models Open
Climate change in Brazil is expected to increase the occurrences of heat related conditions hazardous to human health. Thresholds in the environmental conditions leading to heat stress in humans are projected to be exceeded for long period…
View article: Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity
Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity Open
Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest‐…
View article: Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy
Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy Open
We review how the international modelling community, encompassing integrated assessment models, global and regional Earth system and climate models, and impact models, has worked together over the past few decades to advance understanding …
View article: Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5 °C
Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5 °C Open
To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the Paris Agreement committed countries to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by urgently reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Paris temperature ambitions and remaining…
Future amazon basin wetland hydrology under projected climate change Open
Climate change over the Amazon basin has the potential to cause major hydrological and ecological impacts over the region’s extensive wetlands. To investigate this the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model is first…
View article: Very high fire danger in UK in 2022 at least 6 times more likely due to human-caused climate change
Very high fire danger in UK in 2022 at least 6 times more likely due to human-caused climate change Open
The UK experienced an unprecedented heatwave in 2022, with temperatures reaching 40°C for the first time in recorded history. This extreme heat was accompanied by widespread fires across London and elsewhere in England, which destroyed hou…
Reviewing climate change attribution in UK natural hazards and their impacts Open
The field of Detection and Attribution is rapidly moving beyond weather and climate, and towards incorporating hazards and their impacts on natural and human systems. Here, we review the comprehensive literature base relevant for the UK ah…
View article: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Open
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decis…
Abrupt changes in the subpolar North Atlantic and their impact on European climate Open
There has been increasing interest in the possibility of abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic and their potential impacts on the downstream regions of northwestern Europe. Here, we investigate whether this system undergoes abrupt …
View article: Comment on essd-2024-149
Comment on essd-2024-149 Open
Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-b…
View article: Comment on essd-2024-149
Comment on essd-2024-149 Open
Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-b…
View article: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Open
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decis…
View article: Comment on essd-2024-149
Comment on essd-2024-149 Open
Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-b…
View article: Regional impacts poorly constrained by climate sensitivity
Regional impacts poorly constrained by climate sensitivity Open
Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest-…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2024-453 -- Oliver Morton
Comment on egusphere-2024-453 -- Oliver Morton Open
Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system and climate models, and impact models, have worked together over the past few decades, to advance un…