Arndt Leininger
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View article: Citizen forecasting in a mixed electoral system
Citizen forecasting in a mixed electoral system Open
Existing studies show that aggregating citizens’ expectations about who will win can predict election outcomes in a majoritarian system. But can so-called citizen forecasting also successfully predict outcomes in mixed-member systems, wher…
View article: Unequal Participation Among Youth and Immigrants: An Overview
Unequal Participation Among Youth and Immigrants: An Overview Open
This thematic issue covers the political participation of youth and immigrants in contemporary democracies. The articles in this issue advance knowledge in youth studies, migration studies, and political behavior, theoretically and empiric…
View article: Unequal Turnout Among the Newly Enfranchised: The Role of Political Efficacy
Unequal Turnout Among the Newly Enfranchised: The Role of Political Efficacy Open
Unequal political participation increasingly challenges democracies. The turnout gap is particularly large among younger voters, with severe implications for future developments of democratic representation, legitimacy, and quality. This a…
View article: Coming of voting age. Evidence from a natural experiment on the effects of electoral eligibility
Coming of voting age. Evidence from a natural experiment on the effects of electoral eligibility Open
In recent years, several jurisdictions have lowered the voting age, with many more discussing it. Sceptics question whether young people are ready to vote, while supporters argue that allowing them to vote would increase their specific eng…
View article: Can individual MPs damage their party's brand? Quasi-experimental evidence from a public procurement corruption scandal
Can individual MPs damage their party's brand? Quasi-experimental evidence from a public procurement corruption scandal Open
Are parties punished electorally by voters for scandals of individual politicians among their ranks? To answer this question, we analyze the electoral repercussions of a political scandal in March 2021 in Germany: Several national MPs of t…
View article: Can individual MPs damage their party's brand? Quasi-experimental evidence from a public procurement corruption scandal
Can individual MPs damage their party's brand? Quasi-experimental evidence from a public procurement corruption scandal Open
Are parties punished electorally by voters for scandals of individual politicians among their ranks? To answer this question, we analyze the electoral repercussions of a political scandal in March 2021 in Germany: Several national MPs of t…
View article: Ideological and affective polarization in multiparty systems
Ideological and affective polarization in multiparty systems Open
Inspired by increasingly partisan politics in the US, a burgeoning literature on affective polarization applies the concept to multiparty systems. While there are many literature reviews on polarization in the US, as of yet there exists no…
View article: Replication Data for: Strategic alignment in times of crisis: Voting at the dawn of a global pandemic
Replication Data for: Strategic alignment in times of crisis: Voting at the dawn of a global pandemic Open
The files in this repository replicate the analyses in Leininger, Arndt, and Max Schaub. 2023. “Strategic Alignment in Times of Crisis: Voting at the Dawn of a Global Pandemic.” Political Behavior. In order to run the analyses, download th…
View article: Cleavage politics, polarisation and participation in Western Europe
Cleavage politics, polarisation and participation in Western Europe Open
Polarisation over cultural issues and the emergence of radical, often populist, challenger parties indicate a fundamental restructuring of political conflict in Western Europe. The emerging divide crosscuts and, in part, reshapes older cle…
View article: Temporary Disenfranchisement: Negative Side Effects of Lowering the Voting Age
Temporary Disenfranchisement: Negative Side Effects of Lowering the Voting Age Open
How does losing one’s right to vote again after having been eligible to vote before affect political fundamentals such as political efficacy? We draw attention to the hitherto neglected phenomenon “temporary disenfranchisement,” which, for…
View article: Replication Data for: Temporary Disenfranchisement: Negative Side-Effects of Lowering the Voting Age
Replication Data for: Temporary Disenfranchisement: Negative Side-Effects of Lowering the Voting Age Open
How does losing one’s right to vote again after having been eligible to vote before affect political fundamentals such as political efficacy? We draw attention to the hitherto neglected phenomenon ‘temporary disenfranchisement,’ which, for…
View article: Replication Data for: A Länder-based Forecast of the 2021 German Bundestag Election
Replication Data for: A Länder-based Forecast of the 2021 German Bundestag Election Open
Polls are poor forecasts when elections are distant because they are sensitive to events and conditions that can change before election day. Structural approaches, which fit models on previous elections and fundamentals such as economic pe…
View article: Electoral participation, political disaffection, and the rise of the populist radical right
Electoral participation, political disaffection, and the rise of the populist radical right Open
Does the populist radical right benefit from increased electoral mobilization? Integrating theories of political grievances with accounts of party competition in Western Europe, we contend that the populist right gains advantage from incre…
View article: Replication Data for: A Länder-based Forecast of the 2021 German Bundestag Election
Replication Data for: A Länder-based Forecast of the 2021 German Bundestag Election Open
Polls are poor forecasts when elections are distant because they are sensitive to events and conditions that can change before election day. Structural approaches, which fit models on previous elections and fundamentals such as economic pe…
View article: Replication Data for: Coattails and spillover-effects: Quasi-experimental evidence from concurrent executive and legislative elections
Replication Data for: Coattails and spillover-effects: Quasi-experimental evidence from concurrent executive and legislative elections Open
The files provided allow the replication of all statistical analysis in "Coattails and spillover-effects: Quasi-experimental evidence from concurrent executive and legislative elections". Article abstract: Concurrent elections are widely u…
View article: The impact of group identity on coalition formation
The impact of group identity on coalition formation Open
Bargaining and coalition building are a central part of modern politics. We argue that majoritarian bargaining is important for the formation of coalitions and that group-identity preferences have an impact on partner selection. We tested …
View article: Replication Data for: The Impact of Group Identity on Coalition Formation
Replication Data for: The Impact of Group Identity on Coalition Formation Open
Bargaining and coalition building are a central part of modern politics. We argue that majoritarian bargaining is important for the formation of coalitions and that group-identity preferences impact partner selection. We test the effect of…
View article: Do Populist Parties Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence From Over 40 Years of Electoral History in 31 European Democracies
Do Populist Parties Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence From Over 40 Years of Electoral History in 31 European Democracies Open
While some consider populist parties to be a threat to liberal democracy, others have argued that populist parties may positively affect the quality of democracy by increasing political participation of citizens. This supposition, however,…
View article: Strategic Alignment in Times of Crisis: Voting at the Dawn of a Global Pandemic
Strategic Alignment in Times of Crisis: Voting at the Dawn of a Global Pandemic Open
What is the impact of a global health crisis on political behavior? We study the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on electoral choice based on the case of Germany, one of the countries most heavily affected by the crisis. Our data come from…
View article: Replication Data for: Do Populist Parties Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence from over 40 Years of Electoral History in 31 European Democracies
Replication Data for: Do Populist Parties Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence from over 40 Years of Electoral History in 31 European Democracies Open
#Replication files for: Leininger, A., & Meijers, M. J. (forthcoming). Do Populist Parties Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence from over 40 Years of Electoral History in 31 European Democracies. Political Studies. #Abstract: While some consid…
View article: t_leaveoneout.R
t_leaveoneout.R Open
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View article: t_pp_pr_lr_1990.R
t_pp_pr_lr_1990.R Open
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View article: visualizations.R
visualizations.R Open
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View article: coefplots.R
coefplots.R Open
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View article: README.txt
README.txt Open
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View article: merge.R
merge.R Open
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View article: populistparties.R
populistparties.R Open
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View article: t_countries_election_years.R
t_countries_election_years.R Open
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