Explanipedia

Bayesian Analysis of Instrumental Variable Models: Acceptance-Rejection within Direct Monte Carlo Open

Arnold Zellner, Tomohiro Ando, Nalan Baştürk, Lennart F. Hoogerheide, Herman K. van Dijk · 2013

We discuss Bayesian inferential procedures within the family of instrumental variables regression models and focus on two issues: existence conditions for posterior moments of the parameters of interest under a flat prior and the potential…

Bayesian analysis of instrumental variable models: The potential of direct Monte Carlo Open

Arnold Zellner, Tomohiro Ando, Nalan Baştürk, Lennart F. Hoogerheide, Herman K. van Dijk · 2012

Bayesian Analysis of Instrumental Variable Models: Acceptance-Rejection within Direct Monte Carlo Open

Arnold Zellner, Tomohiro Ando, N. Basturk, Lennart F. Hoogerheide, Herman K. van Dijk · 2012

Instrumental Variables, Errors in Variables, and Simultaneous Equations Models: Applicability and Limitations of Direct Monte Carlo Open

Arnold Zellner, Tomohiro Ando, Nalan Baştürk, Lennart F. Hoogerheide, Herman K. van Dijk · 2011

A Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approach is introduced for posterior simulation in the Instrumental Variables (IV) model with one possibly endogenous regressor, multiple instruments and Gaussian errors under a flat prior. This DMC method can al…

Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of the seemingly unrelated regression and simultaneous equations models using a combination of direct Monte Carlo and importance sampling techniques Open

Tomohiro Ando, Arnold Zellner · 2010

Computationally efficient simulation methods for hierarchical Bayesian analysis of the\nseemingly unrelated regression (SUR) and simultaneous equations models (SEM) are\nproposed and applied. These methods combine a direct Monte Carlo (DMC…

S. James Press and Bayesian Analysis Open

Arnold Zellner · 2009

S. James Press’s many contributions to statistical research, lecturing, mentoring students, the statistics profession, etc. are summarized. Then some new developments in Bayesian analysis are described and remarks on the future of Bayesian…

INTRODUCTION TO<i>MEASUREMENT WITH THEORY</i> Open

William A. Barnett, W. Erwin Diewert, Arnold Zellner · 2009

This paper is the introduction to the Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue on Measurement with Theory. The Guest Editors of the special issue are William A. Barnett, W. Erwin Diewert, Shigeru Iwata, and Arnold Zellner. The papers included …

Comment Open

Arnold Zellner · 2009

Comment on "Harold Jeffreys's Theory of Probability Revisited" [arXiv:0804.3173]

Comments on "Limits of Econometrics" by David Freedman Open

Arnold Zellner · 2009

David Freedmans impressive paper reveals well his deep understanding of not only statistical techniques and their uses but also of scientific methodology and its philosophy. On visits to Berkeley over the years, I have had the opportunity …

Honorary Lecture on S. James Press and Bayesian Analysis ł Open

Arnold Zellner · 2009

S. James Press’s many contributions to statistical research, lecturing, mentoring students, the statistics profession, etc. are summarized. Then some new developments in Bayesian analysis are described and remarks on the future of Bayesian…

Keep it sophisticatedly simple Open

Arnold Zellner · 2002

Some years ago, I came upon the phrase used in industry, ‘Keep it simple stupid’, that is, KISS, and thought about it in relation to scientific model-building. Since some simple models are stupid, I decided to reinterpret KISS to mean ‘Kee…

The ARAR Error Model for Univariate Time Series and Distributed Lag Models Open

R A.L. Carter, Arnold Zellner · 2002

We show that the use of prior information derived from former empirical findings and/or subject matter theory regarding the lag structure of the observable variables together with an AR process for the error terms can produce univariate an…

Traditional Bayes and the Bayesian method of moment analysis for the mixed linear model with an application to animal breeding : theory and methods Open

A. J. van der Merwe, Albertus Lodewikus Pretorius, Johan Hugo, Arnold Zellner · 2001

The Bayesian Method of Moments (BMOM) was introduced by Arnold Zellner in 1994. Given the data it enables researchers to make inverse probability statements about unknown parameters if the form of the likelihood function is unknown. In thi…

New Information‐Based Econometric Methods in Agricultural Economics: Discussion Open

Arnold Zellner · 1999

Bayesian Analysis of Golf Open

Arnold Zellner · 1999

In this paper Bayesian analysis is used to analyze some problems that arise in playing golf in what is thought to be a scientific manner. Some issues that arise are: (1) Is a scientific analysis of golf possible? (2) What concept of probab…

Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Approaches to Scientific Modeling and Inference in Economics and Econometrics Open

Arnold Zellner · 1999

After brief remarks on the history of modeling and inference techniques in economics and econometrics, attention is focused on the emergence of economic science in the 20th century. First, the broad objectives of science and the Pearson-Je…

Discussion of Papers Presented at 1999 ASSA Meeting in New York By (1) Foster and Whiteman, (2) Golan, Moretti and Perloff, and (3) LaFrance Open

Arnold Zellner · 1999

Some Recent Developments in Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics Open

Arnold Zellner · 1999

Alternative Functional Forms for Production, Cost and Returns to Scale Functions Open

Arnold Zellner, Hang K. Ryu · 1998

We consider generalized production functions, introduced in Zellner and Revankar (1969), for output y=g(f) where g is a monotonic function and f is a homogeneous production function. For various choices of the scale elasticity or returns t…

A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance Open

Arnold Zellner, Justin L. Tobias · 1998

this paper are first converted to real quantities by dividing each variable by a country-specific price index. The variables are then logged, firstdifferenced, and multiplied by 100 to convert to growth rates. Estimation results for the AR…

Bayesian Method of Moments (BMOM) Analysis of Parametric and Semiparametric Regression Models Open

Arnold Zellner, Justin L. Tobias, Hang K. Ryu · 1998

The influence of process parameters during freeze/thaw (FT) operations is essential for the preservation of the protein stability/activity during production and storage processes in the biopharmaceutical industry. Process parameters, such …

Further Results on Bayesian Method of Moments Analysis of the Multiple Regression Model Open

Justin L. Tobias, Arnold Zellner · 1998

The Bayesian Method of Moments (BMOM) was introduced in 1994 to permit investigators to make inverse probability statements regarding parameters' possible values given the data when the form of the likelihood function is unknown. BMOM…

Forecasting Turning Points in Countries' Output Growth Rates: A Response to Milton Friedman Open

Arnold Zellner, Chung-ki Min · 1998

The Leonard J. Savage Award Open

J. M. Savage, Stephen E. Fienberg, Seymour Geisser, Joseph B. Kadane, Edward Learner , et al. · 1997

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Bayesian Method of Moments (BMOM) Analysis of Mean and Regression Models Open

Arnold Zellner · 1995

A Bayesian method of moments/instrumental variable (BMOM/IV) approach is developed and applied in the analysis of the important mean and multiple regression models. Given a single set of data, it is shown how to obtain posterior and predic…

Bayesian specification analysis and estimation of simultaneous equation models using Monte Carlo methods Open

Arnold Zellner, Luc Bauwens, Herman K. van Dijk · 1988

OPTIMAL INFORMATION-PROCESSING AND BAYES' THEOREM Open

Arnold Zellner · 1988

An information-processing representation of statistical inference is formulated and utilized to derive an optimal information-processing rule. When particular input and output information measures and an information criterion functional ar…

BAYESIAN SPECIFICATION ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATION OF SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODELS USING MONTE CARLO METHODS Open

Arnold Zellner, Luc Bauwens, Herman K. van Dijk · 1988

Bayesian methods for specification analysis or diagnostic checking of the simultaneous equation model are formulated and applied in analysis of two models. In this work, a direct Monte Carlo simulation approach is employed to compute exact…

CAUSALITY AND CAUSAL LAWS IN ECONOMICS Open

Arnold Zellner · 1988

After presenting and discussing H. Feigl's definition of causality and the general properties of causal laws in science, an explanation of why research in the area of "causality testing" in the last two decades has not produced many, if an…

TURNING POINTS IN ECONOMIC TIME SERIES, LOSS STRUCTURES AND BAYESIAN FORECASTING Open

Arnold Zellner, Chansik Hong, Gaurang M. Gulati · 1988

Methods for forecasting turning points and future values of economic time series are developed which take account of a forecaster's loss structure. For example, it is found that the decision to forecast a downturn in an economic series is …

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