Adam J. Clark
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View article: Extended Range Machine Learning Severe Weather Guidance Based on the Operational GEFS
Extended Range Machine Learning Severe Weather Guidance Based on the Operational GEFS Open
Hill et al. demonstrated promising results for 1–8-day severe weather predictions using a random forest (RF) trained with Global Ensemble Forecast System reforecasts (GEFS/R) and applied to operational GEFS forecasts. However, the skill of…
View article: A 16-Year Climatology of WPC-Analyzed Drylines and Their Association with Severe Convection
A 16-Year Climatology of WPC-Analyzed Drylines and Their Association with Severe Convection Open
A 16-yr (2007–22) climatology of drylines is presented. Constructed using NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) surface analyses, this climatology addresses the limitations of season, time of day, and region of previous dryline studies by u…
View article: Evaluation of 0–6-Hour Forecasts from the Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System and the Hybrid Analysis and Forecast System for Real-Time Cases in 2021
Evaluation of 0–6-Hour Forecasts from the Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System and the Hybrid Analysis and Forecast System for Real-Time Cases in 2021 Open
This study compares real-time forecasts produced by the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) and a hybrid ensemble and variational data assimilation and prediction system (WoF-Hybrid) for 31 events during 2021. Object-based verification is used …
View article: Advancing Hazardous Weather Prediction in the 2024 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Advancing Hazardous Weather Prediction in the 2024 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment Open
View article: Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality
Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality Open
In 2009, advancements in NWP and computing power inspired a vision to advance hazardous weather warnings from a warn-on-detection to a warn-on-forecast paradigm. This vision would require not only the prediction of individual thunderstorms…
View article: The First Hybrid NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment for Advancing Severe Weather Prediction
The First Hybrid NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment for Advancing Severe Weather Prediction Open
© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Polic…
View article: Verification and Model Configuration Sensitivity of Simulated ABI Radiance Forecasts With the FV3‐LAM Model
Verification and Model Configuration Sensitivity of Simulated ABI Radiance Forecasts With the FV3‐LAM Model Open
This study evaluates simulated radiance forecasts from a series of controlled experiments consisting of FV3‐LAM forecasts with different configurations of model physics and vertical resolution. The forecasts were produced during the 2020 H…
View article: Masthead
Masthead Open
WEATHER AND FORECASTING (WAF) publishes research that is relevant to operational forecasting.This includes papers on significant weather events, forecasting techniques, forecast verification, model parameterizations, data assimilation, mod…
View article: Just What Is “Good”? Musings on Hail Forecast Verification through Evaluation of FV3-HAILCAST Hail Forecasts
Just What Is “Good”? Musings on Hail Forecast Verification through Evaluation of FV3-HAILCAST Hail Forecasts Open
Hail forecasts produced by the CAM-HAILCAST pseudo-Lagrangian hail size forecasting model were evaluated during the 2019, 2020, and 2021 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs). As part of this evaluation…
View article: The Third Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction Capabilities
The Third Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction Capabilities Open
The 2022 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (2022 SFE) was held 2 May–3 June 2022, marking the third consecutive year of virtual SFEs. We expect this to be the last year of fully virtual experiments with a transit…
View article: Te Whare Atapō | The House Before Dawn
Te Whare Atapō | The House Before Dawn Open
Within a Eurocentric perspective, the built environment is predominantly conceived to safeguard us from the outside natural environment. The mātauranga Māori worldview, in contrast, offers a more fluid understanding of our relationship …
View article: The Second Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction
The Second Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction Open
The 2021 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (2021 SFE) was held virtually 3 May–4 June 2021. SFEs are co-led by the NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), and test new …
View article: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed
Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed Open
During the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed, two NWS forecasters issued experimental probabilistic forecasts of hail, tornadoes, and severe convective wind using NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). …
View article: Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss Open
View article: Analysis of End User Access of Warn-on-Forecast Guidance Products during an Experimental Forecasting Task
Analysis of End User Access of Warn-on-Forecast Guidance Products during an Experimental Forecasting Task Open
Convection-allowing model ensemble guidance, such as that provided by the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), is designed to provide predictions of individual thunderstorm hazards within the next 0–6 h. The WoFS web viewer provides a large sui…
View article: Correction to: Dryline characteristics in North America’s historical and future climates
Correction to: Dryline characteristics in North America’s historical and future climates Open
View article: Dryline characteristics in North America’s historical and future climates
Dryline characteristics in North America’s historical and future climates Open
View article: A Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction
A Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction Open
The NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) co-led the 2020 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (2020 SFE) virtually to evaluate new convection-allowing models (CAMs) and …
View article: Author response for "Beyond nitrogen: phosphorus - estimating the minimum niche dimensionality for resource competition between phytoplankton"
Author response for "Beyond nitrogen: phosphorus - estimating the minimum niche dimensionality for resource competition between phytoplankton" Open
View article: Exploring Convection-Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model Core
Exploring Convection-Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model Core Open
Verification methods for convection-allowing models (CAMs) should consider the finescale spatial and temporal detail provided by CAMs, and including both neighborhood and object-based methods can account for displaced features that may sti…
View article: adamtclark/gauseR: gauseR package
adamtclark/gauseR: gauseR package Open
gauseR package, as available on CRAN, and described in the following publication: Lina K. Mühlbauer, Maximilienne Schulze, W. Stanley Harpole, and Adam T. Clark. "gauseR: Simple methods for fitting Lotka-Volterra models describing Gause's …
View article: What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms?
What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms? Open
The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast v2.1 (HREFv2.1), an operational convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble, is an “ensemble of opportunity” wherein forecasts from several independently designed deterministic CAMs are aggregated and pos…
View article: Author response for "Beyond nitrogen: phosphorus - estimating the minimum niche dimensionality for resource competition between phytoplankton"
Author response for "Beyond nitrogen: phosphorus - estimating the minimum niche dimensionality for resource competition between phytoplankton" Open
View article: Single molecule light field microscopy
Single molecule light field microscopy Open
We introduce single molecule light field microscopy (SMLFM), a new class of three-dimensional (3D) single molecule localization microscopy. By segmenting the back focal plane of a microscope objective with an array of microlenses to genera…
View article: Single Molecule Light Field Microscopy
Single Molecule Light Field Microscopy Open
We introduce single molecule light field microscopy (SMLFM), a novel 3D single molecule localization technique that is capable of up to 20 nm isotropic precision across a 6 μ m depth of field. SMLFM can be readily implemented by installing…
View article: Current State of Anthrax Vaccines and Key R&D Gaps Moving Forward
Current State of Anthrax Vaccines and Key R&D Gaps Moving Forward Open
A licensed anthrax vaccine has been available for pre-exposure prophylaxis in the United States since 1970, and it was approved for use as a post-exposure prophylaxis, in combination with antibiotic treatment, in 2015. A variety of other v…
View article: Assessing Systematic Impacts of PBL Schemes on Storm Evolution in the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System
Assessing Systematic Impacts of PBL Schemes on Storm Evolution in the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System Open
The NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is an experimental rapidly updating convection-allowing ensemble designed to provide probabilistic operational guidance on high-impact thunderstorm hazards. The current WoFS uses physics diversity to…
View article: Supplementary document for Single Molecule Light Field Microscopy - 4736529.pdf
Supplementary document for Single Molecule Light Field Microscopy - 4736529.pdf Open
Supplemental document
View article: Scorecards for Convection-Allowing Models
Scorecards for Convection-Allowing Models Open
ince scientists first began modeling the Earth system, a need to verify the subsequent forecasts has existed.Formal verification can identify ways forecast models need to improve, objectively judge how changes in the models affect forecast…
View article: Supplementary document for Single Molecule Light Field Microscopy - 4716247.pdf
Supplementary document for Single Molecule Light Field Microscopy - 4716247.pdf Open
Supplementary information