Alejandro Werner
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View article: Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are they Optimistic?
Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are they Optimistic? Open
Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities' fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies, using data from annu…
View article: What drives economic growth forecast revisions?
What drives economic growth forecast revisions? Open
This article investigates how the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions behave across different horizons and country groups. Our main findings suggest that (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volati…
View article: Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?
Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic? Open
Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annua…
View article: The Long-Run Impact of Sovereign Yields on Corporate Yields in Emerging Markets
The Long-Run Impact of Sovereign Yields on Corporate Yields in Emerging Markets Open
We analyze the long-run impact of emerging-market sovereign bond yields on corporate bond yields, finding that the average pass-through is around one. The pass-through is larger in countries with greater sovereign risks and where sovereign…
View article: The Long-Run Impact of Sovereign Yields on Corporate Yields in Emerging Markets
The Long-Run Impact of Sovereign Yields on Corporate Yields in Emerging Markets Open
We analyze the long-run impact of emerging-market sovereign bond yields on corporate bond yields, finding that the average pass-through is around one.The pass-through is larger in countries with greater sovereign risks and where sovereign …
View article: Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?
Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic? Open
Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections?We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities' fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual…
View article: Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons
Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons Open
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and mor…
View article: Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons
Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons Open
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and mor…
View article: Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America during the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact
Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America during the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact Open
The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to emba…
View article: Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America during the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact
Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America during the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact Open
The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to emba…
View article: The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations
The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations Open
This paper assesses the dynamic impact of global macroeconomic conditions, commodity price movements, shifts in portfolio preferences, and domestic shocks on fiscal outcomes—notably the budget deficit, its main components, and debt—across …
View article: The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations
The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations Open
This paper assesses the dynamic impact of global macroeconomic conditions, commodity price movements, shifts in portfolio preferences, and domestic shocks on fiscal outcomes—notably the budget deficit, its main components, and debt—across …
View article: Reexamining the National Savings-Investment Nexus Across Time and Countries
Reexamining the National Savings-Investment Nexus Across Time and Countries Open
Domestic savings and investment are positively correlated across countries and through time, as Feldstein-Horioka (FH) unveiled 40 years ago. We argue that an interpretation of this correlation based on market failures is more consistent w…
View article: The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico
The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico Open
In this paper we analyze the incidence of the VAT and its effects on the income distribution.To identify these effects, we rely on two tax reforms undertaken in Mexico that increased the VAT rate for a group of cities and left the rest una…
View article: Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment
Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment Open
We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fa…
View article: Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment
Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment Open
We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shiftsidentified with a Markov-switching approach-for a large set of countries during the period 1960-2015.We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast…