Alexander M. Petersen
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View article: Trusted Uncertainty in Large Language Models: A Unified Framework for Confidence Calibration and Risk-Controlled Refusal
Trusted Uncertainty in Large Language Models: A Unified Framework for Confidence Calibration and Risk-Controlled Refusal Open
Deployed language models must decide not only what to answer but also when not to answer. We present UniCR, a unified framework that turns heterogeneous uncertainty evidence including sequence likelihoods, self-consistency dispersion, retr…
View article: Climate Influences on Day and Overnight Use at California State Beaches and Coastal Parks
Climate Influences on Day and Overnight Use at California State Beaches and Coastal Parks Open
State beaches and parks provide access to coastal environments for recreational activities that rely on access to the ocean, coastal climate, and scenic amenities. Approximately 46 million people visit state beaches in California annually,…
View article: University digital media co-occurrence networks reveal structure and dynamics of brand visibility in the attention economy
University digital media co-occurrence networks reveal structure and dynamics of brand visibility in the attention economy Open
As universities compete for visibility to attract student enrollment and build scientific reputation, the management of institution of higher education (IHE) brand has emerged as an important strategic endeavor. Yet our understanding of th…
View article: The disruption index suffers from citation inflation: Re-analysis of temporal CD trend and relationship with team size reveal discrepancies
The disruption index suffers from citation inflation: Re-analysis of temporal CD trend and relationship with team size reveal discrepancies Open
Measuring the rate of innovation in academia and industry is fundamental to monitoring the efficiency and competitiveness of the knowledge economy. To this end, a disruption index (CD) was recently developed and applied to publication and …
View article: Science convergence in affective research is associated with impactful multidisciplinary appeal rather than multidisciplinary content
Science convergence in affective research is associated with impactful multidisciplinary appeal rather than multidisciplinary content Open
Affectivism is a research trend dedicated to the study of emotions and their role in cognition and human behavior. Affectivism both complements and competes with cognitivism, which typically neglects affect in explaining behavior. By the n…
View article: Shift in house price estimates during COVID-19 reveals effect of crisis on collective speculation
Shift in house price estimates during COVID-19 reveals effect of crisis on collective speculation Open
We exploit a city-level panel comprised of individual house price estimates to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on both small and big real-estate markets in California USA. Descriptive analysis of spot house price estimates, including conte…
View article: The disruption index suffers from citation inflation and is confounded by shifts in scholarly citation practice
The disruption index suffers from citation inflation and is confounded by shifts in scholarly citation practice Open
Measuring the rate of innovation in academia and industry is fundamental to monitoring the efficiency and competitiveness of the knowledge economy. To this end, a disruption index (CD) was recently developed and applied to publication and …
View article: Research alignment in the U.S. national park system: Impact of transformative science policy on the supply and demand for scientific knowledge for protected area management
Research alignment in the U.S. national park system: Impact of transformative science policy on the supply and demand for scientific knowledge for protected area management Open
The US National Park System encompasses diverse environmental and tourism management regimes, together governed by the 1916 Organic Act and its dual mandate of conservation and provision of public enjoyment. However, with the introduction …
View article: How much did pandemic uncertainty affect real-estate speculation? Evidence from on-market valuation of for-sale versus rental properties
How much did pandemic uncertainty affect real-estate speculation? Evidence from on-market valuation of for-sale versus rental properties Open
We exploit a panel of Zillow Inc. property valuations to estimate the excess real-estate price growth observed in three California cities that is attributable to speculation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our research design leverages…
View article: Network Embedding for Understanding the National Park System through the Lenses of News Media, Scientific Communication, and Biogeography
Network Embedding for Understanding the National Park System through the Lenses of News Media, Scientific Communication, and Biogeography Open
The United States national parks encompass a variety of biophysical and historical resources important for national cultural heritage. Yet how these resources are socially constructed often depends upon the beholder. Parks tend to be conce…
View article: The disruption index is biased by citation inflation
The disruption index is biased by citation inflation Open
A recent analysis of scientific publication and patent citation networks by Park et al. (Nature, 2023) suggests that publications and patents are becoming less disruptive over time. Here we show that the reported decrease in disruptiveness…
View article: The disruption index is biased by citation inflation
The disruption index is biased by citation inflation Open
A recent analysis of scientific publication and patent citation networks by Park et al. (Nature, 2023) suggests that publications and patents are becoming less disruptive over time. Here we show that the reported decrease in disruptiveness…
View article: PLOS ONE publication and citation data
PLOS ONE publication and citation data Open
Merged PLOS ONE and Web of Science data compiled in .dta files produced by STATA13. Included is a Do-file for reproducing the regression model estimates reported in the pre-print (Tables I and II) and published version (Table 1). Each obse…
View article: Methods for measuring social and conceptual dimensions of convergence science
Methods for measuring social and conceptual dimensions of convergence science Open
Convergence science is an intrepid form of interdisciplinarity defined by the US National Research Council as ‘the coming together of insights and approaches from originally distinct fields’ to strategically address grand challenges. Despi…
View article: Clustering-Based Inter-Regional Correlation Estimation
Clustering-Based Inter-Regional Correlation Estimation Open
A novel non-parametric estimator of the correlation between grouped measurements of a quantity is proposed in the presence of noise. This work is primarily motivated by functional brain network construction from fMRI data, where brain regi…
View article: Predicting Distributions of Physical Activity Profiles in the NHANES Database Using a Partially Linear Fréchet Single Index Model
Predicting Distributions of Physical Activity Profiles in the NHANES Database Using a Partially Linear Fréchet Single Index Model Open
Object-oriented data analysis is a fascinating and evolving field in modern statistical science, with the potential to make significant contributions to biomedical applications. This statistical framework facilitates the development of new…
View article: BIOMEDICAL CONVERGENCE FACILITATED BY THE EMERGENCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL AND INFORMATIC CAPABILITIES
BIOMEDICAL CONVERGENCE FACILITATED BY THE EMERGENCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL AND INFORMATIC CAPABILITIES Open
We leverage the knowledge network representation of the Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) ontology to infer conceptual distances between roughly 30,000 distinct MeSH keywords — each being prescribed to particular knowledge domains — in order …
View article: A Mixed Model Approach for Estimating Regional Functional Connectivity from Voxel-level BOLD Signals
A Mixed Model Approach for Estimating Regional Functional Connectivity from Voxel-level BOLD Signals Open
Resting-state brain functional connectivity quantifies the synchrony between activity patterns of different brain regions. In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), each region comprises a set of spatially contiguous voxels at which…
View article: Shift in house price estimates during COVID-19 reveals effect of crisis on collective speculation
Shift in house price estimates during COVID-19 reveals effect of crisis on collective speculation Open
We exploit a city-level panel comprised of individual house price estimates to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on both small and big real-estate markets in California USA. Descriptive analysis of spot house price estimates, including conte…
View article: EVOLUTION OF BIOMEDICAL INNOVATION QUANTIFIED VIA BILLIONS OF DISTINCT ARTICLE-LEVEL MeSH KEYWORD COMBINATIONS
EVOLUTION OF BIOMEDICAL INNOVATION QUANTIFIED VIA BILLIONS OF DISTINCT ARTICLE-LEVEL MeSH KEYWORD COMBINATIONS Open
To what degree has the vast space of higher-order knowledge combinations been explored and how has it evolved over time? To address these questions, we first develop a systematic approach to measuring combinatorial innovation in the biomed…
View article: On the social and cognitive dimensions of wicked environmental problems characterized by conceptual and solution uncertainty
On the social and cognitive dimensions of wicked environmental problems characterized by conceptual and solution uncertainty Open
We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked problems that emerge at the intersections of "natural", social, and technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of interdepen…
View article: Partial separability and functional graphical models for multivariate Gaussian processes
Partial separability and functional graphical models for multivariate Gaussian processes Open
Summary The covariance structure of multivariate functional data can be highly complex, especially if the multivariate dimension is large, making extensions of statistical methods for standard multivariate data to the functional data setti…
View article: Fréchet single index models for object response regression
Fréchet single index models for object response regression Open
With the increasing availability of non-Euclidean data objects, statisticians are faced with the task of developing appropriate statistical methods for their analysis. For regression models in which the predictors lie in $\mathbb{R}^p$ and…
View article: ON THE SOCIAL AND COGNITIVE DIMENSIONS OF WICKED ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS CHARACTERIZED BY CONCEPTUAL AND SOLUTION UNCERTAINTY
ON THE SOCIAL AND COGNITIVE DIMENSIONS OF WICKED ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS CHARACTERIZED BY CONCEPTUAL AND SOLUTION UNCERTAINTY Open
We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked problems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of interdepende…