Amir Siraj
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View article: An Approach to, and Tool for, Predicting the Time Course of an Infectious Disease Outbreak as a Function of Behavioral Interventions
An Approach to, and Tool for, Predicting the Time Course of an Infectious Disease Outbreak as a Function of Behavioral Interventions Open
This interactive computer program aids epidemiologists, public health experts, and decision-makers in understanding and predicting infectious transmission. It is also valuable for generating rapid reports on infectious diseases and outbrea…
View article: Chemical Classification of Spherules Recovered From The Pacific Ocean Site of The CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) Bolide
Chemical Classification of Spherules Recovered From The Pacific Ocean Site of The CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) Bolide Open
We have conducted an extensive towed-magnetic-sled survey during the period of June 14-28, 2023, over the seafloor about 85 km north of Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, centered around the calculated path of the bolide CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1…
View article: Discovery of Spherules of Likely Extrasolar Composition in the Pacific Ocean Site of the CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) Bolide
Discovery of Spherules of Likely Extrasolar Composition in the Pacific Ocean Site of the CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) Bolide Open
We have conducted an extensive towed-magnetic-sled survey during the period 14-28 June, 2023, over the seafloor centered around the calculated path of the bolide CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) about 85 km north of Manus Island, Papua New Guinea. W…
View article: Close Encounters of the Interstellar Kind: Examining the Capture of Interstellar Objects in Near Earth Orbit
Close Encounters of the Interstellar Kind: Examining the Capture of Interstellar Objects in Near Earth Orbit Open
Recent observations and detections of interstellar objects (ISOs) passing through the solar system have sparked a wave of interest into these objects. Although rare, these ISOs can be captured into bound orbits around the Sun. In this stud…
View article: Localizing The First Interstellar Meteor With Seismometer Data
Localizing The First Interstellar Meteor With Seismometer Data Open
The first meter-scale interstellar meteor (IM1) was detected by US government sensors in 2014, identified as an interstellar object candidate in 2019, and confirmed by the Department of Defense (DoD) in 2022. We use data from a nearby seis…
View article: How do Rural Youth Make their Voices Heard in Climate Change Planning in the Andean Communities? A Case Study from the Mantaro Valley, Central Peru.
How do Rural Youth Make their Voices Heard in Climate Change Planning in the Andean Communities? A Case Study from the Mantaro Valley, Central Peru. Open
This research draws from participatory research in two regions of the Peruvian Andes and provides an analysis of youth voices in climate change planning. The research explores how communities assess and mitigate the impacts of climate chan…
View article: Expected Fragment Distribution from the First Interstellar Meteor CNEOS 2014-01-08
Expected Fragment Distribution from the First Interstellar Meteor CNEOS 2014-01-08 Open
In 2014, the fireball of the first interstellar meteor CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) (Siraj & Loeb 2019), was detected off the northern coast of Papua New Guinea. A recently announced ocean expedition will retrieve any extant fragments by towing …
View article: Expected endpoints from future chikungunya vaccine trial sites informed by serological data and modeling
Expected endpoints from future chikungunya vaccine trial sites informed by serological data and modeling Open
In recent decades, there has been an increased interest in developing a vaccine for chikungunya. However, due to its unpredictable transmission, planning for a chikungunya vaccine trial is challenging. To inform decision making on the sele…
View article: Physical Considerations for an Intercept Mission to a 1I/’Oumuamua-Like Interstellar Object
Physical Considerations for an Intercept Mission to a 1I/’Oumuamua-Like Interstellar Object Open
In this paper, we review some of the extant literature on the study of interstellar objects (ISOs). With the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Telescope and Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), we find that [Formula: see text] ‘Oumuamua-like in…
View article: Physical Considerations for an Intercept Mission to a 1I/'Oumuamua-like Interstellar Object
Physical Considerations for an Intercept Mission to a 1I/'Oumuamua-like Interstellar Object Open
In this paper, we review some of the extant literature on the study of interstellar objects (ISOs). With the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Telescope and Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), we find that $0.38 - 84$ `Oumuamua-like interstell…
View article: Interstellar Meteors are Outliers in Material Strength
Interstellar Meteors are Outliers in Material Strength Open
The first interstellar meteor larger than dust was detected by US government sensors in 2014, identified as an interstellar object candidate in 2019, and confirmed by the Department of Defense in 2022. Here, we describe an additional inter…
View article: Risk factors for mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Northern Ethiopia: A retrospective analysis
Risk factors for mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Northern Ethiopia: A retrospective analysis Open
Background COVID-19 is a deadly pandemic caused by an RNA virus that belongs to the family of CORONA virus. To counter the COVID-19 pandemic in resource limited settings, it is essential to identify the risk factors of COVID-19 mortality. …
View article: An Ocean Expedition by the Galileo Project to Retrieve Fragments of the First Large Interstellar Meteor CNEOS 2014-01-08
An Ocean Expedition by the Galileo Project to Retrieve Fragments of the First Large Interstellar Meteor CNEOS 2014-01-08 Open
The earliest confirmed interstellar object, `Oumuamua, was discovered in the Solar System by Pan-STARRS in 2017, allowing for a calibration of the abundance of interstellar objects of its size $\sim 100\;$ m. This was followed by the disco…
View article: Projecting vaccine demand and impact for emerging zoonotic pathogens
Projecting vaccine demand and impact for emerging zoonotic pathogens Open
View article: Expected endpoints from future chikungunya vaccine trial sites informed by serological data and modeling
Expected endpoints from future chikungunya vaccine trial sites informed by serological data and modeling Open
In recent decades, there has been an increased interest in developing a vaccine for chikungunya. However, due to its unpredictable transmission, planning for a chikungunya vaccine trial is challenging. To inform decision making on the sele…
View article: An epidemiological and intervention assessment of the malaria epidemic in Bolívar, Venezuela: a modelling study
An epidemiological and intervention assessment of the malaria epidemic in Bolívar, Venezuela: a modelling study Open
SUMMARY Background Venezuela has experienced an explosive resurgence in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over the last decade due to various social, political, and economic factors. To ensure national and region…
View article: New Constraints on the Composition and Initial Speed of CNEOS 2014-01-08
New Constraints on the Composition and Initial Speed of CNEOS 2014-01-08 Open
We study the newly released light curve from the fireball of the first interstellar meteor CNEOS 2014-01-08. The measured velocity and three observed flares down to an altitude of $18.7 \mathrm{\; km}$ imply ambient ram pressure in the ran…
View article: The impact of war on the health system of the Tigray region in Ethiopia: a response to complaints
The impact of war on the health system of the Tigray region in Ethiopia: a response to complaints Open
View article: Social Media Usage and Business Performance among Small and Medium Scale Marketers in Batticaloa, Sri-Lanka
Social Media Usage and Business Performance among Small and Medium Scale Marketers in Batticaloa, Sri-Lanka Open
The popularity of social media has exploded in decade ago, and during this pandemic situation, the need and the role of social media plays a massive role. The current study intended to produce empirical evidence on the relationship and the…
View article: Projecting vaccine demand and impact for emerging zoonotic pathogens
Projecting vaccine demand and impact for emerging zoonotic pathogens Open
Despite large outbreaks in humans seeming improbable for a number of zoonotic pathogens, several pose a concern due to their epidemiological characteristics and evolutionary potential. To enable effective responses to these pathogens in th…
View article: The New Astronomical Frontier of Interstellar Objects
The New Astronomical Frontier of Interstellar Objects Open
The upcoming commencement of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space of Time (LSST) will greatly enhance the discovery rate of interstellar objects (ISOs). `Oumuamua and Borisov were the first two ISOs confirmed in the Solar…
View article: The impact of war on the health system of the Tigray region in Ethiopia: an assessment
The impact of war on the health system of the Tigray region in Ethiopia: an assessment Open
The war in Tigray region of Ethiopia that started in November 2020 and is still ongoing has brought enormous damage to the health system. This analysis provides an assessment of the health system before and during the war. Evidence of dama…
View article: Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions
Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions Open
Sensitivity to modeling assumptions and statistical uncertainty undermine confidence in disease burden estimates for yellow fever.
View article: Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease Open
Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative mo…
View article: Preliminary Evidence That Protoplanetary Disks Eject More Mass Than They\n Retain
Preliminary Evidence That Protoplanetary Disks Eject More Mass Than They\n Retain Open
If interstellar objects originate in protoplanetary disks, they can be used\nto calibrate the fraction of mass that such disks eject. The discoveries of\ninterstellar objects 1I/`Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, taken together with rogue\nplanets …
View article: Intelligent Responses to Our Technological Signals Will Not Arrive In\n Fewer Than Three Millennia
Intelligent Responses to Our Technological Signals Will Not Arrive In\n Fewer Than Three Millennia Open
What is the chance we start a conversation with another civilization like our\nown? Our technological society produced signals that could be received by other\nextraterrestrial civilizations, within a sphere around us with a radius of\n$\\…
View article: Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming
Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming Open
A counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since the turn of the new…
View article: Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease Open
When new pathogens emerge, numerous questions arise about their future spread, some of which can be addressed with probabilistic forecasts. The many uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose…
View article: The Copernican Principle Rules Out BLC1 as a Technological Radio Signal\n from the Alpha Centauri System
The Copernican Principle Rules Out BLC1 as a Technological Radio Signal\n from the Alpha Centauri System Open
Without evidence for occupying a special time or location, we should not\nassume that we inhabit privileged circumstances in the Universe. As a result,\nwithin the context of all Earth-like planets orbiting Sun-like stars, the\norigin of a…
View article: Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions
Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions Open
Geographically stratified estimates of disease burden play an important role in setting priorities for the management of different diseases and for targeting interventions against a single disease. Such estimates involve numerous assumptio…