André Düsterhus
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View article: The challenge of uncertain observations: Probabilistic verification of decadal predictions with high temporal resolution
The challenge of uncertain observations: Probabilistic verification of decadal predictions with high temporal resolution Open
EGU abstract 2025NP5.2 EDI: Advances in statistical post-processing, blending, and verification of deterministic and probabilistic forecastsThe challenge of uncertain observations: Probabilistic verification of decadal predictions with hig…
View article: Attributing Local Precipitation Variability to Climate and Circulation Dynamics
Attributing Local Precipitation Variability to Climate and Circulation Dynamics Open
Precipitation has become an increasingly critical issue, particularly in the wake of events such as severe pluvial flooding and the subsequent emergence of fluvial flooding concerns during recent anomalously wet winters in many places in E…
View article: Future Wave Climate and Coastal Impacts: Projections for the Northeast Atlantic and the Galway Bay.
Future Wave Climate and Coastal Impacts: Projections for the Northeast Atlantic and the Galway Bay. Open
This study examines the projected changes in wave heights under the RCP8.5 climate scenario in the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) and along the west coast of Ireland, with a specific focus on the wave climate in Galway Bay. An analogue method wa…
View article: KAPy – a community-based approach to the production of climate services
KAPy – a community-based approach to the production of climate services Open
Climate services provide tailored information to support climate adaptation at the local level. One common form of climate service is the provision of downscaled climate projections, often bias-corrected using local observations and custom…
View article: Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions
Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions Open
Decadal predictions focus regularly on the predictability of single values, like means or extremes. In this study we investigate the prediction skill of the full underlying surface temperature distributions on global and European scales. W…
View article: Decadal predictability of seasonal temperature distriubutions
Decadal predictability of seasonal temperature distriubutions Open
Climate predictions focus regularly on the predictability of single values, like means or extremes. While these information offer important insight into the quality of a prediction system, some stakeholders might be interested in the predi…
View article: Wave Climate Analysis near the Irish Coast: SWAN-WAM Modeling from Present to the Future.
Wave Climate Analysis near the Irish Coast: SWAN-WAM Modeling from Present to the Future. Open
Coastal regions are dynamic environments influenced by various atmospheric and oceanic processes. Understanding the complex interplay of these forces is crucial for coastal management, navigation, and impact assessments. This becomes espec…
View article: Seasonal Prediction of Arabian Sea Marine Heatwaves
Seasonal Prediction of Arabian Sea Marine Heatwaves Open
Marine heatwaves are known to have a detrimental impact on marine ecosystems, yet predicting when and where they will occur remains a challenge. Here, using a large ensemble of initialized predictions from an Earth System Model, we demonst…
View article: The effect of initialisation on 20 year multi-decadal climate predictions
The effect of initialisation on 20 year multi-decadal climate predictions Open
This study investigates initialised decadal predictions of 2-m air temperature over lead times of up to 20 years and compares them against uninitialised simulations in the time period 1960–2019. We demonstrate that in the North and South A…
View article: Decadal Prediction along the Western Irish Coast
Decadal Prediction along the Western Irish Coast Open
This study investigates the predictability within the North Eastern Atlantic at depth with an initialised decadal prediction system. For both temperature and salinity at the West Coast of Ireland are compared for 2-to-5-years ahead in a 16…
View article: Rain triggers seasonal stratification in a temperate shelf sea
Rain triggers seasonal stratification in a temperate shelf sea Open
The North Atlantic Storm Track acts as a conveyor belt for extratropical cyclones that frequently deliver high winds and rainfall to northwest European shelf seas. Storms are primarily considered detrimental to shelf sea stratification due…
View article: The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective Open
The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on a…
View article: Decadal prediction along the Western Irish Coast
Decadal prediction along the Western Irish Coast Open
Over the last decade there have been vast improvements in the field of global decadal climate prediction; however, on a regional scale there is still limited confidence. Previous studies with the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI…
View article: A 1-D model for predicting surf zone waves around the Irish Coast
A 1-D model for predicting surf zone waves around the Irish Coast Open
Our coasts face huge challenges due to future sea level rise. A main reason for this are the changes in waves which are expected to become more powerful. As these changes will affect our coasts, the prediction of wave changes play an impor…
View article: Effect of initialisation within a 20yr multi-annual climate prediction system
Effect of initialisation within a 20yr multi-annual climate prediction system Open
Decadal climate predictions use state-of-the-art climate models and combine them with initialisation procedures to create information about our future. Their development has proven successful in the past years and offer a wide range of app…
View article: The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land
The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land Open
There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States (US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), wind and translati…
View article: Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves
Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves Open
Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical…
View article: The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land.
The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land. Open
There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States (US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), wind and translati…
View article: Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere
Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere Open
Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO‐dependent ai…
View article: The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective Open
The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on a…
View article: What can the last century teach us about climate models?
What can the last century teach us about climate models? Open
<p>Climate models are an important tool in our understanding of the climate system. Among other things, we use them together with initialisation procedures to predict the climate from a few weeks to more than a decade. While the comm…
View article: Long-term climate prediction for Ireland and its surrounding
Long-term climate prediction for Ireland and its surrounding Open
<p>Ireland is bordering the North Atlantic, and its climate is dominated by its climate modes on short to longer timescales. The Atlantic low-pressure systems, Jetstream variabilities and airmasses are features of the atmospheric cir…
View article: Spring regional sea surface temperature precursors of European summer heat waves
Spring regional sea surface temperature precursors of European summer heat waves Open
<p>Past case studies have proposed many different spring and early summer sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the North Atlantic as precursors of European summer heat waves. Negative SSTAs in the Subpolar Gyre and western t…
View article: Improving seasonal predictions of meteorological drought by conditioning on ENSO states
Improving seasonal predictions of meteorological drought by conditioning on ENSO states Open
Useful hindcast skill of meteorological drought, assessed with the 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI ), has been so far limited to one lead month (time horizon of the prediction). Here, we quadruple that lead time by demo…
View article: Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance Open
Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have …
View article: A large ensemble decadal prediction system with MPI-ESM
A large ensemble decadal prediction system with MPI-ESM Open
<p>Current state-of-the-art decadal ensemble prediction systems are run with an ensemble size of 10 to 40 members, their retrospective forecasts of the past are used to assess the system's prediction skill. Here, we present an attemp…
View article: Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 20th century
Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 20th century Open
<p>The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has over the year a major influence on European weather. In many applications, being it in modern or paleo climate science, the NAO is assumed to varying in strength, but otherwise often unders…
View article: Interaction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Sub-Polar Gyre on decadal timescale
Interaction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Sub-Polar Gyre on decadal timescale Open
<p>North Atlantic climate variability is dominated by two important subsystems, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Sub-Polar Gyre (SPG). While the AMOC is responsible for the transport of mass and heat int…