Andrew Ballinger
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View article: Decreasing aerosols increase the European summer diurnal temperature range
Decreasing aerosols increase the European summer diurnal temperature range Open
The diurnal temperature range (DTR), the difference between daily maximum and minimum temperature, is important for the impact of extreme temperatures, but despite physical links to aerosol forcing previous studies have struggled to attrib…
View article: Using analogues to predict changes in future UK heatwaves<sup>*</sup>
Using analogues to predict changes in future UK heatwaves<sup>*</sup> Open
The intensity and frequency of extreme heat events is increasing due to climate change, resulting in a range of societal impacts. In this paper, we use temporal analogues to analyse how past UK heatwave events, such as during the summer of…
View article: Estimating Combined Effects of Climate Change and Land Cover Change on Water Regulation Services of Urban Wetlands in Valdivia, Chile
Estimating Combined Effects of Climate Change and Land Cover Change on Water Regulation Services of Urban Wetlands in Valdivia, Chile Open
The relationship between cities and wetland cover varies across the globe, with some cities converting wetlands to low‐ and high‐density urban cover and others preserving, conserving, or restoring wetlands, or constructing new ones. Howeve…
View article: Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework
Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework Open
Observations are increasingly used to constrain multi-model projections for future climate assessments. This study assesses the performance of five constraining methods, which have previously been applied to attempt to improve regional cli…
View article: Combining Temperature and Precipitation to Constrain the Aerosol Contribution to Observed Climate Change
Combining Temperature and Precipitation to Constrain the Aerosol Contribution to Observed Climate Change Open
Using the past to improve future predictions requires an understanding and quantification of the individual climate contributions to the observed climate change by aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), which is hindered by large uncertaint…
View article: Linearity of the Climate Response to Increasingly Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in a Large Ensemble Framework
Linearity of the Climate Response to Increasingly Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in a Large Ensemble Framework Open
Large explosive volcanic eruptions cause short-term climatic impacts on both regional and global scales. Their impact on tropical climate variability, in particular El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is still uncertain, as is their combi…
View article: Relative role of land and ocean in shaping tropical hydroclimate after large volcanic eruptions
Relative role of land and ocean in shaping tropical hydroclimate after large volcanic eruptions Open
Volcanic eruptions substantially impact tropical precipitation over the historical period but they differ in their emission strength, geographical latitude and season of the eruption, which makes it difficult to draw general conclusions. S…
View article: Importance of early 19th century volcanic activity on long-term climate variability.
Importance of early 19th century volcanic activity on long-term climate variability. Open
Typically, climate simulations covering the historical period start in 1850, with the first fifty years used as a baseline to represent a ‘pre-industrial' climate. The period immediately prior to 1850 is however of particular in…
View article: Observed links between heatwaves and wildfires across Northern high latitudes
Observed links between heatwaves and wildfires across Northern high latitudes Open
Data on Arctic and Sub-Arctic summer heat events are limited due to the sparse network of surface observation stations. Here, we analyze large heat events within 60°–80°N using land surface temperature (LST) observations from the moderate …
View article: Data for estimating combined effects of climate change and land cover change in Valdivia, Chile
Data for estimating combined effects of climate change and land cover change in Valdivia, Chile Open
Data supporting the analysis in manuscript titled, "Estimating combined effects of climate change and land cover change on water regulation services of urban wetlands in Valdivia, Chile"
View article: The Importance of Accounting for the North Atlantic Oscillation When Applying Observational Constraints to European Climate Projections
The Importance of Accounting for the North Atlantic Oscillation When Applying Observational Constraints to European Climate Projections Open
Variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has contributed to the recent multidecadal trends observed in European climate, especially to trends in winter precipitation over Northern Europe. However, the current generation of coupl…
View article: Assessing the impact of very large volcanic eruptions on the risk of extreme climate events
Assessing the impact of very large volcanic eruptions on the risk of extreme climate events Open
Very large volcanic eruptions have substantial impacts on the climate, causing global cooling and major changes to the hydrological cycle. While most studies have focused on changes to mean climate, here we use a large ensemble to assess t…
View article: Using causal inference to investigate anthropogenic aerosol impacts on the diurnal temperature range
Using causal inference to investigate anthropogenic aerosol impacts on the diurnal temperature range Open
Near surface air temperature is a primary variable to track global climate change. While mean temperature is often used to quantify global warming, the diurnal temperature range (DTR) - defined as the difference of daily minimum and maximu…
View article: Linear precipitation response to increasingly strong volcanic eruptions and its emergence from internal variability
Linear precipitation response to increasingly strong volcanic eruptions and its emergence from internal variability Open
Large explosive volcanic eruptions are a potential source of uncertainty in future climate projections as they cannot be predicted in advance, but eventually will occur, causing short-term climatic impacts on both local and global scale. S…
View article: Compound climate extremes: attribution and risk assessment to different compound extreme events in Africa
Compound climate extremes: attribution and risk assessment to different compound extreme events in Africa Open
Detection and attribution of climate extremes in Africa has predominantly focused on univariate analysis of drought events and heat waves in different regions of the continent, although there have been unusual extreme events such as the Et…
View article: Building storylines for applications: what have we learned in the EUCP project?
Building storylines for applications: what have we learned in the EUCP project? Open
<p>The European Climate Prediction system (EUCP) project aimed to lay the foundation for a future regional climate prediction system for Europe. An important element of this is the role of narrative or storylines approaches in data p…
View article: Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions
Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions Open
This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. Results for near‐surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach h…
View article: Accounting for the NAO when applying observational constraints to future European climate projections
Accounting for the NAO when applying observational constraints to future European climate projections Open
<p>The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic region, affecting temperature and rainfall over timescales from days through to seasons and decades. Previous studies have sho…
View article: Towards attributing change in tropical and subtropical precipitation
Towards attributing change in tropical and subtropical precipitation Open
<p>Precipitation changes are notoriously highly variable, and climate models misplace circulation features, making it difficult to evaluate if mechanisms of precipitation change are well reproduced in climate models. Several methods …
View article: Testing methods to constrain future European climate projections in an &#8220;out-of-sample&#8221; framework
Testing methods to constrain future European climate projections in an “out-of-sample” framework Open
<p>A major problem in climate science is providing reliable regional climate projections. Existing model ensembles are imperfect so a number of different methods for constraining future climate projections using the observational rec…
View article: Using temperature and precipitation combined to detect and attribute aerosol effects on large-scale climate
Using temperature and precipitation combined to detect and attribute aerosol effects on large-scale climate Open
<p>Anthropogenic aerosols (AER) have been found to impact both Earth&#8217;s energy and water cycle. Like greenhouse gases (GHG) they are an anthropogenic climate forcing, which will play an important role in shaping Earth&#8…
View article: Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2
Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2 Open
Outputs from the probabilistic projection methods developed or assessed in the European Climate Projection system (EUCP) Horizon2020 project. The data can be previewed through our interactive atlas. For more information, see the atlas abou…
View article: Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2
Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2 Open
Outputs from the probabilistic projection methods developed or assessed in the European Climate Projection system (EUCP) Horizon2020 project. The data can be previewed through our interactive atlas. For more information, see the atlas abou…
View article: Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2
Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2 Open
Outputs from the probabilistic projection methods developed or assessed in the European Climate Projection system (EUCP) Horizon2020 project. The data can be previewed through our interactive atlas. For more information, see the atlas abou…
View article: Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2
Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2 Open
Outputs from the probabilistic projection methods developed or assessed in the European Climate Projection system (EUCP) Horizon2020 project. The data can be previewed through our interactive atlas. For more information, see the atlas abou…
View article: Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2
Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2 Open
Outputs from the probabilistic projection methods developed or assessed in the European Climate Projection system (EUCP) Horizon2020 project. The data can be previewed through our interactive atlas. For more information, see the atlas abou…
View article: Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2
Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2 Open
Outputs from the probabilistic projection methods developed or assessed in the European Climate Projection system (EUCP) Horizon2020 project. The data can be previewed through our interactive atlas. For more information, see the atlas abou…
View article: Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2
Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2 Open
Outputs from the probabilistic projection methods developed or assessed in the European Climate Projection system (EUCP) Horizon2020 project. The data can be previewed through our interactive atlas. For more information, see the atlas abou…
View article: Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2
Pre-processed data of atlas in EUCP-WP2 Open
Outputs from the probabilistic projection methods developed or assessed in the European Climate Projection system (EUCP) Horizon2020 project. The data can be previewed through our interactive atlas. For more information, see the atlas abou…