Andrew Caplin
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View article: Harnessing Human Uncertainty to Train More Accurate and Aligned AI Systems
Harnessing Human Uncertainty to Train More Accurate and Aligned AI Systems Open
AI-augmented decision-making (AIADM) aims to leverage the computational power of machine learning (ML) models to assist humans in their decision-making processes. In many such systems, especially for complex tasks like medical image classi…
View article: Testing Capacity-Constrained Learning
Testing Capacity-Constrained Learning Open
We introduce the first general test of capacity-constrained learning models. Cognitive economic models of this type share the common feature that constraints on perception are exogenously fixed, as in the widely used fixed-capacity version…
View article: Work Skills for the Cognitive Economy
Work Skills for the Cognitive Economy Open
This chapter introduces research on how the rise of AI will impact wages as the cognitive revolution unfolds. It sketches recent research suggesting that AI helps those of lower skill to close the productivity and earnings gap with those o…
View article: Next Steps in Research, Business, and Policy
Next Steps in Research, Business, and Policy Open
This chapter highlights important next steps in cognitive economic research in relation to the cognitive revolution. Particular topics discussed are design of human- AI interactions, ensuring that workers and students are as well informed …
View article: Accelerating Cognitive Economics: Why Now, and How?
Accelerating Cognitive Economics: Why Now, and How? Open
This chapter proposes development of an Accelerator for Cognitive Economics to speed to lower these barriers. It invites readers to join in and to speed development of cognitive economics. It invites readers to complete a survey to indicat…
View article: Cognitive Economics Takes Off
Cognitive Economics Takes Off Open
This chapter presents a history of cognitive economics framed in terms of Walt Rostow’s stages of economic growth. It highlights the important early contribution of Paul Samuelson, who introduced revealed preference theory, as well as that…
View article: Cognitive Economics at Work
Cognitive Economics at Work Open
Chapter 4 introduces cognitive labor economics . Inspired by the industrial revolution, standard production functions model the transformation of physical factors of production into physical outputs. With the growing importance of higher l…
View article: Cognitive Capital and Human-AI Interactions
Cognitive Capital and Human-AI Interactions Open
This chapter introduces cognitive capital and human-AI interactions . The upcoming cognitive revolution, like its industrial precursor, is defined by a radical change in technology. The machines of today introduce intangible cognitive capi…
View article: Measuring and Minimizing Mistakes
Measuring and Minimizing Mistakes Open
This chapter introduces cognitive legal studies and cognitive economic methods for measuring and minimizing decision-making mistakes using cognitive nudges . It outlines a case study that shows how adding an index to complex case files imp…
View article: Cognitive Household Finance
Cognitive Household Finance Open
This chapter introduces cognitive household finance organized around the life-cycle model of wealth accumulation. It covers exponential and hyperbolic discounting, temptation and self control problems. It distinguishes the present-bias of …
View article: Introduction to Cognitive Economics
Introduction to Cognitive Economics Open
This chapter introduces cognitive economics. It explains its inter-disciplinary nature and the fundamental role of utility functions, subjective beliefs, costs of learning , and Blackwell experiments . It outlines the need for economic dat…
View article: Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects using Subjective Expectations
Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects using Subjective Expectations Open
We develop a method to identify the individual latent propensity to select into treatment and marginal treatment effects.Identification is achieved with survey data on individuals' subjective expectations of their treatment propensity and …
View article: Economic Decision-Making Skill Predicts Income in Two Countries
Economic Decision-Making Skill Predicts Income in Two Countries Open
Jobs increasingly require good decision-making. Workers are valued not only for how much they can do, but also for their ability to decide what to do. In this paper we develop a theory and measurement paradigm for assessing individual vari…
View article: Missing Participants, Missing Markets, and the Social Discount Rate: Borrowing Constraints, Intergenerational Transfers, Altruism, and the Desire for Legacy
Missing Participants, Missing Markets, and the Social Discount Rate: Borrowing Constraints, Intergenerational Transfers, Altruism, and the Desire for Legacy Open
Market interest rates reflect the preferences of market participants. When market participants are missing, the average discount rate in the population may therefore differ from the market rate. Missing current market participants, such as…
View article: Subjective Earnings Risk
Subjective Earnings Risk Open
While earnings risk is essentially subjective, it is typically inferred from administrative data.We introduce a survey to measure subjective earnings risk, paying particular attention to the expected impacts of job transitions on earnings.…