Andrew G. Turner
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View article: The role of soil moisture in the inland penetration of Indian monsoon low‐pressure systems
The role of soil moisture in the inland penetration of Indian monsoon low‐pressure systems Open
Indian monsoon low‐pressure systems (LPSs) are important synoptic‐scale cyclonic vortices that typically form over the Bay of Bengal, before penetrating into India where they produce copious precipitation. It has long been argued that high…
View article: High‐Impact Low‐Likelihood Climate Scenarios for Risk Assessment in the UK
High‐Impact Low‐Likelihood Climate Scenarios for Risk Assessment in the UK Open
There is an increasing interest amongst policymakers in understanding the implications of high‐impact low‐likelihood (HILL) risks for climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience. Whilst extreme sea level rise scenarios have been used and…
View article: Wetter, Weaker, and More Frequent Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in CMIP6 Future Scenarios
Wetter, Weaker, and More Frequent Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in CMIP6 Future Scenarios Open
The South Asian monsoon is strongly influenced by synoptic-scale low pressure systems (LPSs), which deliver the majority of seasonal and extreme rainfall. Here, we provide a robust synthesis of future LPS characteristics by analyzing 13 mo…
View article: Future intensification of Northern Hemisphere monsoons due to declining remote aerosol pollution
Future intensification of Northern Hemisphere monsoons due to declining remote aerosol pollution Open
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have significantly shaped historical monsoon precipitation, yet uncertainties persist in the projected response to future emissions. This study employs models contributing at least ten ensemble members to th…
View article: Anatomy of moist heatwaves in India during the summer monsoon season
Anatomy of moist heatwaves in India during the summer monsoon season Open
Moist heat impairs the human body’s ability to cool through sweat-based evaporative cooling, posing a serious health risk. In India, this risk is especially acute, since the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) brings abundant moisture, and socio-e…
View article: Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI)
Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI) Open
Drought events can have significant agricultural and economic impacts, and in many parts of the world their intensity appears to be increasing with climate change. However, drought measurement remains a highly contested space, with a multi…
View article: Strong intermodel differences and biases in CMIP6 simulations of PM <sub>2.5</sub> , aerosol optical depth, and precipitation over Africa
Strong intermodel differences and biases in CMIP6 simulations of PM <sub>2.5</sub> , aerosol optical depth, and precipitation over Africa Open
Poor air quality and precipitation change are strong, rapidly changing, and possibly linked drivers of physical hazards in sub-Saharan Africa. Future projections of sub-Saharan air quality and precipitation remain uncertain due to differen…
View article: Systematic biases over the equatorial Indian Ocean and their influence on seasonal forecasts of the IOD
Systematic biases over the equatorial Indian Ocean and their influence on seasonal forecasts of the IOD Open
Accurate seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is crucial given its socioeconomic impacts on countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. Using hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea6), coupled m…
View article: High-resolution climate models improve simulation of monsoon rainfall changes in the Ganga–Brahmaputra-Meghna basin
High-resolution climate models improve simulation of monsoon rainfall changes in the Ganga–Brahmaputra-Meghna basin Open
This study investigates the impact of model resolution on simulating South Asian monsoon rainfall, focusing on the Ganges–Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin. By comparing high- and low-resolution versions of four CMIP6 HighResMIP model familie…
View article: Interactions between subpolar and subtropical jet streams lead to extreme rainfall events over the North Indian Subcontinent in June 2013 and July 2023
Interactions between subpolar and subtropical jet streams lead to extreme rainfall events over the North Indian Subcontinent in June 2013 and July 2023 Open
North Indian Subcontinent (NIS) is prone to disastrous and life-threatening floods during the summer monsoon period primarily due to its close proximity with the Himalayan foothills. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that dur…
View article: The Skill of Extended‐Range <scp>ERPAS</scp> and <scp>GloSea5</scp> Models in Capturing Extratropical–Tropical Interactions During the North Indian Summer Monsoon
The Skill of Extended‐Range <span>ERPAS</span> and <span>GloSea5</span> Models in Capturing Extratropical–Tropical Interactions During the North Indian Summer Monsoon Open
The transient eddies in the atmosphere are short‐lived, moving disturbances prominent over mid‐latitude. Transient eddy transport enables the exchange of mass, energy, and moisture between extratropical and tropical regions. Based on obser…
View article: Systematic biases over the equatorial Indian Ocean and their influence on seasonal forecasts of the IOD
Systematic biases over the equatorial Indian Ocean and their influence on seasonal forecasts of the IOD Open
Accurate representation and predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in seasonal forecasts are crucial given its pronounced socioeconomic impacts on countries surrounding the Indian Ocean.  Using hindcasts from the coupled Met …
View article: Sub-Saharan African Precipitation Responses to Aerosol Emission Changes
Sub-Saharan African Precipitation Responses to Aerosol Emission Changes Open
Precipitation changes over sub-Saharan Africa linked to remote aerosol emissions have severely impacted agriculture, ecosystems, and livelihoods historically in the region. Established links between aerosol emissions and precipitation resp…
View article: Future changes in the onset and withdrawal of the tropical Asian summer monsoon
Future changes in the onset and withdrawal of the tropical Asian summer monsoon Open
The tropical Asian summer monsoon comprises multiple sub-systems, including those affecting the South Asian marginal seas, the Indian subcontinent, etc. Its onset and withdrawal significantly impact socio-economic activities due to th…
View article: Controls on the convective environment in the Lake Victoria region and their interactions with large-scale climate variability
Controls on the convective environment in the Lake Victoria region and their interactions with large-scale climate variability Open
The Lake Victoria region is inhabited by over 40 million people and is a major source of food, water and economic activity in East Africa. As the intertropical convergence zone passes by, this region experiences two rainy seasons that resu…
View article: The role of dry intrusions in breaks of the Indian summer monsoon
The role of dry intrusions in breaks of the Indian summer monsoon Open
The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is of great importance to over a billion people since it supplies over 75% of the country’s annual precipitation. Significant intraseasonal variability in rainfall affects people, with breaks responsib…
View article: Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments
Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments Open
Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over western or northern India, they share some d…
View article: Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI)
Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI) Open
Drought events can have significant agricultural and economic impacts, and in many parts of the world their intensity appears to be increasing with climate change. However, drought measurement remains a highly contested space, with a multi…
View article: Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity
Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity Open
Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest‐…
View article: Tropical intraseasonal oscillations as key driver and source of predictability for the 2022 Pakistan record-breaking rainfall event
Tropical intraseasonal oscillations as key driver and source of predictability for the 2022 Pakistan record-breaking rainfall event Open
In August 2022, Pakistan experienced unprecedented monsoon rains, leading to devastating floods and landslides affecting millions. While previous research has mainly focused on the contributions of seasonal and synoptic anomalies, this stu…
View article: Strong inter-model differences and biases in CMIP6 simulations of PM <sub>2.5</sub> , aerosol optical depth, and precipitation over Africa
Strong inter-model differences and biases in CMIP6 simulations of PM <sub>2.5</sub> , aerosol optical depth, and precipitation over Africa Open
Poor air quality and precipitation change are strong, rapidly changing, and possibly linked, drivers of physical hazards in sub-Saharan Africa. Future projections of sub-Saharan air quality and precipitation remain uncertain due to differe…
View article: High-resolution climate models improve simulation of monsoon rainfall changes in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin
High-resolution climate models improve simulation of monsoon rainfall changes in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin Open
This study examines observed and projected changes in monsoon timing (onset/withdrawal/duration) and strength (total and extreme rainfall) in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. While prior South Asia monsoon research has mainly used coar…
View article: The role of midlatitude dry air during the withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon
The role of midlatitude dry air during the withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon Open
The Indian summer monsoon supplies over 75% of the country's annual precipitation, profoundly impacting over a billion people. Variability in the timing of its onset and withdrawal has a direct impact on the agricultural sector and other u…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2024-820
Comment on egusphere-2024-820 Open
Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over Western India, they share some dyn…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2024-820
Comment on egusphere-2024-820 Open
Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over Western India, they share some dyn…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2024-820
Comment on egusphere-2024-820 Open
Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over Western India, they share some dyn…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2024-820
Comment on egusphere-2024-820 Open
Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over Western India, they share some dyn…
View article: An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics Open
An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climat…
View article: Regional impacts poorly constrained by climate sensitivity
Regional impacts poorly constrained by climate sensitivity Open
Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest-…