Anthony O’Hagan
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Simple informative prior distributions for Type A uncertainty evaluation in metrology Open
The result of a measurement, including the expression of uncertainty in the measurement, should represent a carefully considered opinion based on the metrologist’s experience and expertise, as well as on the data and other information sour…
Eliciting judgements about dependent quantities of interest: The SHeffield ELicitation Framework extension and copula methods illustrated using an asthma case study Open
Pharmaceutical companies regularly need to make decisions about drug development programs based on the limited knowledge from early stage clinical trials. In this situation, eliciting the judgements of experts is an attractive approach for…
Meaningful expression of uncertainty in measurement Open
The Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM) has been the enduring guide on measurement uncertainty for metrologists since its first publication in 1993. According to the GUM, a measurement should always be accompanied b…
Eliciting judgements about dependent quantities of interest: The SHELF extension and copula methods illustrated using an asthma case study Open
Pharmaceutical companies regularly need to make decisions about drug development programs based on the limited knowledge from early stage clinical trials. In this situation, eliciting the judgements of experts is an attractive approach for…
Predictively consistent prior effective sample sizes Open
Determining the sample size of an experiment can be challenging, even more so when incorporating external information via a prior distribution. Such information is increasingly used to reduce the size of the control group in randomized cli…
The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making Open
This article resulted from our participation in the session on the "role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference" at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present a strong, unified statement on roles o…
Expert Knowledge Elicitation: Subjective but Scientific Open
Expert opinion and judgment enter into the practice of statistical inference and decision-making in numerous ways. Indeed, there is essentially no aspect of scientific investigation in which judgment is not required. Judgment is necessaril…
The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making Open
This article resulted from our participation in the session on the “role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference” at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present a strong, unified statement on roles o…
The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making Open
This article resulted from our participation in the session on the “role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference” at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present a strong, unified statement on roles o…
Training Course on Steering an Expert Knowledge Elicitation Open
EFSA’s scientific expertise and capacity consists of the members of the Scientific Panels, the Scientific Committee, their Working Groups, and the Authority’s own scientific staff as well as the scientists in Member State institutions work…