Arief Ramayandi
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View article: Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in the<scp>Asia‐Pacific</scp>
Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in the<span>Asia‐Pacific</span> Open
Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing countries. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic imp…
View article: Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Asia and the Pacific
Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Asia and the Pacific Open
This paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate (RER) misalignment on business cycles among 22 economies in Asia and the Pacific from 1990 to 2018. It employs a panel vector autoregression involving consumer price index (CPI) infl…
View article: The Influence of US Dollar Funding Conditions on Asian Financial Markets
The Influence of US Dollar Funding Conditions on Asian Financial Markets Open
Amid high reliance on United States (US) dollar-denominated funding, this paper finds changes in exchange rates affect sovereign credit risk premiums in selected emerging Asian economies.
View article: Debt Buildup and Currency Vulnerability: Evidence from Global Markets
Debt Buildup and Currency Vulnerability: Evidence from Global Markets Open
In this study, we examine how public and private debt buildup is related to currency depreciation pressure. Our empirical analysis of a panel dataset of 59 advanced and emerging markets reveals that both private and public debt exacerbate …
View article: Conditions for Effective Macroprudential Policy Interventions
Conditions for Effective Macroprudential Policy Interventions Open
This paper aims at identifying effective macroprudential policy (MPP) interventions and analysing the macroeconomic conditions that promote them. We define effective MPP interventions as those that stabilize its underlying target variable,…
View article: Exchange Rates and Insulation in Emerging Markets
Exchange Rates and Insulation in Emerging Markets Open
The insulating properties of flexible exchange rates have long been a highly contentious issue in emerging markets - not least in Asian emerging markets. A number of recent theoretical and empirical studies question whether a trade-off exi…
View article: Laying the Foundations for Future Growth Acceleration?
Laying the Foundations for Future Growth Acceleration? Open
President Joko Widodo was inaugurated for his second term with a vision to make Indonesia a $7 trillion economy by 2045, seven times its current value. This Survey examines recent developments in Indonesia, with a focus on the challenges o…
View article: Capital Flows and Financial Stability in Emerging Economies
Capital Flows and Financial Stability in Emerging Economies Open
There is mixed evidence for the impact of international capital flows on financial sector's stability. This paper investigates the relationship between components of gross capital flows and various financial stability indicators for 16 eme…
View article: Contingent Claims Analysis of Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Asian Emerging Markets
Contingent Claims Analysis of Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Asian Emerging Markets Open
Contingent claims analysis applied to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand shows no particular vulnerability to sovereign debt distress during recent years. However, the highly volatile “distance to dis…
View article: Exploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies
Exploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies Open
The paper explores risk-based fiscal analytical approaches to complement a standard debt sustainability analysis when applied under conditions of risk and uncertainty. To outline a possible road map for risk-adjusted fiscal sustainability …