Bart Hobijn
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View article: Data and Code for: The Evolving Core of Usable Macroeconomics for Policymakers
Data and Code for: The Evolving Core of Usable Macroeconomics for Policymakers Open
We provide a brief primer on how the core of usable macroeconomic theory for monetary policymakers has evolved over the past 50 years. Today’s policy discussions center on the New Keynesian (NK) synthesis, which builds on the Neoclassical …
View article: www.LaborMarketUpdate.net: Real-Time Research-Based Analyses of the State of the U.S. Labor Market
www.LaborMarketUpdate.net: Real-Time Research-Based Analyses of the State of the U.S. Labor Market Open
This paper introduces www.labormarketupdate.net, a new website that delivers real- time analyses of the U.S. labor market grounded in our applied macro-labor research agenda. We explain how the site's resources can be used to track labor m…
View article: The Evolving Core of Usable Macroeconomics for Policymakers
The Evolving Core of Usable Macroeconomics for Policymakers Open
We provide a brief primer on how the core of usable macroeconomic theory for monetary policymakers has evolved over the past 50 years. Today's policy discussions center on the New Keynesian (NK) synthesis, which builds on the Neoclassical …
View article: The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts
The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts Open
We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of se…
View article: Downward Price Rigidities and Inflationary Relative Demand Shocks
Downward Price Rigidities and Inflationary Relative Demand Shocks Open
We show that a negative relative demand shock in a sector with downwardly rigid prices, like the service sector, can generate substantial inflation. Such a shock induces an equilibrium decline in the relative price of services. If price ad…
View article: The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts
The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts Open
We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023.We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of s…
View article: The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered
The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered Open
Aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics are well approximated by a dual labor market supplemented with a third, predominantly, home-production segment. We uncover this structure by estimating a Hidden Markov Model, a machine-learning method. …
View article: The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered
The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered Open
Aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics are well approximated by a dual labor market supplemented with a third, predominantly, home-production segment.We uncover this structure by estimating a Hidden Markov Model, a machine-learning method.Th…
View article: The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered
The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered Open
Aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics are well approximated by a dual labor market supplemented with a third, predominantly, home-production segment. We uncover this structure by estimating a Hidden Markov Model, a machine-learning method. …
View article: The recent steepening of Phillips curves
The recent steepening of Phillips curves Open
A simple Phillips curve frameworkThroughout the rest of this article, we apply a cross-country Phillips curve regression model to analyze variation in core inflation-a measure of inflation that excludes food and energy prices-across the in…
View article: The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts
The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts Open
We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of …
View article: Missing Workers and Missing Jobs Since the Pandemic
Missing Workers and Missing Jobs Since the Pandemic Open
Since the start of the pandemic the U.S. labor market has been characterized as being plagued by missing jobs, i.e. payroll employment has fallen more than five million jobs short of its prepandemic trend, and missing workers, i.e. the par…
View article: “Missing” Workers and “Missing” Jobs Since the Pandemic
“Missing” Workers and “Missing” Jobs Since the Pandemic Open
Since the start of the pandemic the U.S. labor market has been characterized as being plagued by missing jobs, i.e. payroll employment has fallen more than five million jobs short of its pre-pandemic trend, and missing workers, i.e. the pa…
View article: Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle
Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle Open
We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape labor force participation, i.e., the participation cycle, which are important for the implementation of the maximum employment mandate. We show that …
View article: Using Brexit to identify the nature of price rigidities
Using Brexit to identify the nature of price rigidities Open
Using price quote data that underpin the official U.K. consumer price index (CPI), we analyze the effects of the unexpected passing of the Brexit referendum on the dynamics of price adjustments. The sizable depreciation of the British poun…
View article: On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets
On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets Open
We study the efficiency of non-compete agreements (NCAs) in an equilibrium model of labor turnover. The model is consistent with empirical studies showing that NCAs reduce turnover, average wages, and wage dispersion for low-wage workers. …
View article: Why Is Current Unemployment So Low?
Why Is Current Unemployment So Low? Open
We account for the sources of world productivity growth, using data for more than 36 industries and 40 major economies from 1996 to 2014, explicitly taking into account changes in the misallocation of resources in labor, capital, and produ…