Bernard Grofman
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View article: Statistical Fallacies in Claims about “Massive and Widespread Fraud” in the 2020 Presidential Election: Examining Claims Based on Aggregate Election Results
Statistical Fallacies in Claims about “Massive and Widespread Fraud” in the 2020 Presidential Election: Examining Claims Based on Aggregate Election Results Open
Years after the election, a substantial portion of the electorate, including a significant majority of Republican voters and numerous Republican officials, continue to believe that the 2020 election was stolen. This essay reviews claims of…
View article: How proportional are electoral systems? A universal measure of electoral rules
How proportional are electoral systems? A universal measure of electoral rules Open
The proportionality principle of electoral systems plays an important role in multiple literatures, including comparative politics, political economy, and conflict studies. The single most important electoral system feature used to determi…
View article: Statistical Fallacies in Claims about “Massive and Widespread Fraud” in the 2020 Presidential Election: Examining Claims Based on Aggregate Election Results
Statistical Fallacies in Claims about “Massive and Widespread Fraud” in the 2020 Presidential Election: Examining Claims Based on Aggregate Election Results Open
Years after the election, a substantial portion of the electorate, including a significant majority of Republican voters and numerous Republican officials, continue to believe that the 2020 election was stolen. This essay reviews claims of…
View article: Fit for parliament: a new index of electability, assessing the electoral success of group-based parties
Fit for parliament: a new index of electability, assessing the electoral success of group-based parties Open
The openness of the political system for the representation of social or economic groups through their parties is mired in complexities. Extant scholarship has identified multiple electoral system hurdles that jointly determine the institu…
View article: Fit for parliament: a new index of electability, assessing the electoral success of group-based parties
Fit for parliament: a new index of electability, assessing the electoral success of group-based parties Open
The openness of the political system for the representation of social or economic groups through their parties is mired in complexities. Extant scholarship has identified multiple electoral system hurdles that jointly determine the institu…
View article: Statistical Fallacies in Claims about ‘Massive and Widespread Fraud’ in the 2020 Presidential Election: Examining Claims Based on Aggregate Election Results <sup>1,2</sup>
Statistical Fallacies in Claims about ‘Massive and Widespread Fraud’ in the 2020 Presidential Election: Examining Claims Based on Aggregate Election Results <sup>1,2</sup> Open
Years after the election, a substantial portion of the electorate, including a significant majority of Republican voters and numerous Republican officials, continue to believe that the 2020 election was stolen. This essay reviews claims of…
View article: Using Folded Seats‐Votes Curves to Compare Partisan Bias in the 2020 Presidential Election with Partisan Bias in the Five Other Presidential Elections in the 21st Century
Using Folded Seats‐Votes Curves to Compare Partisan Bias in the 2020 Presidential Election with Partisan Bias in the Five Other Presidential Elections in the 21st Century Open
Using a folded seats‐votes curve, we examine partisan bias in the 2020 presidential election and compare it to partisan bias in the five other presidential elections in the twenty‐first century. 2020 and 2016 are extreme outliers with resp…
View article: Prospects for Democratic Breakdown in the United States: Bringing the States Back In
Prospects for Democratic Breakdown in the United States: Bringing the States Back In Open
The greatest threat of democratic breakdown stems from the federal structure of the US Constitution and from false claims of election fraud with the potential for state- or congressional- level reversals of popular vote outcomes. The poten…
View article: A systems framework for remedying dysfunction in US democracy
A systems framework for remedying dysfunction in US democracy Open
Democracy often fails to meet its ideals, and these failures may be made worse by electoral institutions. Unwanted outcomes include elite polarization, unresponsive representatives, and the ability of a faction of voters to gain power at t…
View article: Why Donald Trump Should Be a Fervent Advocate of Using Ranked-Choice Voting in 2024
Why Donald Trump Should Be a Fervent Advocate of Using Ranked-Choice Voting in 2024 Open
This article builds on work by Devine and Kopko (2021) and Lacy and Burden (1999) who estimated a probit model of candidate choice from nationally representative survey data to determine the second choice of third-party voters. Using this …
View article: The unanticipated effect of COVID‐19 on house apportionment
The unanticipated effect of COVID‐19 on house apportionment Open
It is well understood thateven small differences in population can have a disproportionate impact on representation in the U.S. House of Representatives after a decennial census because of the peculiarities of rounding rules that require i…
View article: Who Creates a Google Scholar Profile?
Who Creates a Google Scholar Profile? Open
This article uses data collected from Google Scholar to identify characteristics of scholars who have chosen to create a Google Scholar profile. Among tenured and tenure-track faculty with full-time appointments in PhD-granting political s…
View article: Job Mobility, Tenure, and Promotions in Political Science PhD-Granting Departments, 2002–2017: Cohort, Gender, and Citation-Count Effects
Job Mobility, Tenure, and Promotions in Political Science PhD-Granting Departments, 2002–2017: Cohort, Gender, and Citation-Count Effects Open
Using updated data from 2002 and 2017 on the political science discipline, we show how the cohort and gender composition of US PhD-granting departments has changed dramatically over time. Integrating 2002 and 2017 data, we examine overall …