Bingxian Luo
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View article: Dual-stage Flare Prediction Using a Full-disk Flare Index: Trend-disturbance Decomposition and Hybrid Forecasting Model
Dual-stage Flare Prediction Using a Full-disk Flare Index: Trend-disturbance Decomposition and Hybrid Forecasting Model Open
Accurate prediction of solar flares is essential for space weather warnings and safeguarding technological infrastructure. This study proposes a dual-stage flare prediction framework leveraging the full-disk flare index (FI). In the first …
View article: Enhancing ≥2 MeV Electron Fluence Predictions in GEO Orbit Through Three Deep Learning Strategies
Enhancing ≥2 MeV Electron Fluence Predictions in GEO Orbit Through Three Deep Learning Strategies Open
Forecasting the dynamic variations of high‐energy electrons in geostationary orbit remains a frontier challenge in space physics and is critical for the protection of geostationary satellites. In this study, we develop Transformer‐based mo…
View article: The extreme depletion of ionospheric electron density and its hemispheric asymmetry during the May 2024 storm
The extreme depletion of ionospheric electron density and its hemispheric asymmetry during the May 2024 storm Open
The Earth's ionosphere plays a critical role in radio wave transmission, reflection, and scattering, directly affecting communication, navigation, and positioning systems. However, the comprehensive impacts of space weather remain to be fu…
View article: A Novel Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-term Memory Model for Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Detection
A Novel Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-term Memory Model for Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Detection Open
Current models for detecting interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using spacecraft in situ measurements rely heavily on manual processes, resulting in time-consuming procedures, inconsistencies in identification criteria, and gaps…
View article: Migrating diurnal tide anomalies during QBO disruptions in 2016 and 2020: morphology and mechanism
Migrating diurnal tide anomalies during QBO disruptions in 2016 and 2020: morphology and mechanism Open
The stratosphere Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) modulates the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) in mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). DW1 amplitudes are larger during QBO westerly (QBOW) than during easterly (QBOE) phases. Since QBO’s d…
View article: ISNet: Decomposed Dynamic Spatio‐Temporal Neural Network for Ionospheric Scintillation Forecasts
ISNet: Decomposed Dynamic Spatio‐Temporal Neural Network for Ionospheric Scintillation Forecasts Open
Accurate prediction of ionospheric scintillation is essential for ensuring the reliability of spaceborne and ground‐based radio wave technology infrastructures, including but not limited to navigation and communication systems. In this stu…
View article: Midlatitude Neutral Wind Response During the Mother's Day Super‐Intense Geomagnetic Storm in 2024 Using Observations From the Chinese Meridian Project
Midlatitude Neutral Wind Response During the Mother's Day Super‐Intense Geomagnetic Storm in 2024 Using Observations From the Chinese Meridian Project Open
Using new observations from the Chinese Meridian Project (CMP), this study examines the characteristics of neutral winds in the East Asian sector during the Mother's Day super‐intense storm in May 2024, primarily focusing on its effects on…
View article: Midlatitude Neutral Wind Response during the Mother’s Day Super-Intense Geomagnetic Storm Using Observations from the Chinese Meridian Project
Midlatitude Neutral Wind Response during the Mother’s Day Super-Intense Geomagnetic Storm Using Observations from the Chinese Meridian Project Open
The super-intense geomagnetic storm of May 2024, known as the Mother's Day superstorm, is the largest event of its kind in the past two decades. During this storm, the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere system was significantly impacted, acco…
View article: Forecasting of the Geomagnetic Activity for the Next 3 Days Utilizing Neural Networks Based on Parameters Related to Large‐Scale Structures of the Solar Corona
Forecasting of the Geomagnetic Activity for the Next 3 Days Utilizing Neural Networks Based on Parameters Related to Large‐Scale Structures of the Solar Corona Open
With the increasing number of large constellations, it is crucial to accurately predict satellite positions and movements using upper atmosphere models driven by geomagnetic indices. Machine learning (ML) can quickly provide geomagnetic in…
View article: Research on F10.7 Index Prediction Based on Factor Decomposition and Feature Enhancement
Research on F10.7 Index Prediction Based on Factor Decomposition and Feature Enhancement Open
The F10.7 index is crucial for assessing solar activity, significantly impacting communication, navigation, and satellite operations. The intrinsic complexity and variability of solar activity often result in sudden perturbations in the F1…
View article: Dynamic Expansion and Merging of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly During the 10–11 May 2024 Super Geomagnetic Storm
Dynamic Expansion and Merging of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly During the 10–11 May 2024 Super Geomagnetic Storm Open
This study investigates the responses of the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere in the American–Atlantic longitude sector during the super geomagnetic storm that occurred on 10–11 May 2024. The investigation utilizes multi-instrument d…
View article: Significant Midlatitude Plasma Density Peaks and Dual‐Hemisphere SED During the 10–11 May 2024 Super Geomagnetic Storm
Significant Midlatitude Plasma Density Peaks and Dual‐Hemisphere SED During the 10–11 May 2024 Super Geomagnetic Storm Open
This study investigates midlatitude ionospheric variations during the super geomagnetic storm on 10–11 May 2024, utilizing multi‐instrument data from ground‐based sources (Global Navigation Satellite Systems receivers and a Fabry–Perot Int…
View article: The Role of Magnetic Skeleton in Solar Flare Filaments Activity
The Role of Magnetic Skeleton in Solar Flare Filaments Activity Open
We report an M9.3 flare and filaments activities from NOAA Active Region 11261 that are strongly modulated by the 3D magnetic skeleton. Magnetic field extrapolation from the vector magnetic field suggests complex magnetic connectivity and …
View article: Estimates of Spherical Satellite Drag Coefficients in the Upper Thermosphere During Different Geomagnetic Conditions
Estimates of Spherical Satellite Drag Coefficients in the Upper Thermosphere During Different Geomagnetic Conditions Open
Satellite drag coefficients are crucial for determining the neutral mass densities that affect spacecraft operations in the thermosphere. Many studies typically utilize a constant drag coefficient of 2.2 to calculate the neutral density. H…
View article: Solar Cycle Dependence of Migrating Diurnal Tide in the Equatorial Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere
Solar Cycle Dependence of Migrating Diurnal Tide in the Equatorial Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Open
Atmospheric migrating diurnal tide (DW1) is one of the prominent variabilities in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The existence of the solar cycle dependence of DW1 is debated, and there exist different and even opposite findi…
View article: Ionospheric conductance due to electron and ion precipitations based on the comparison between EISCAT and DMSP estimates
Ionospheric conductance due to electron and ion precipitations based on the comparison between EISCAT and DMSP estimates Open
Energetic particle precipitation is the major source of electron production that controls the ionospheric Pedersen and Hall conductances at high latitudes. Typically, the ionospheric conductances are estimated using either theoretical or e…
View article: Ionospheric Conductances Due To Electron and Ion Precipitations: A Comparison Between EISCAT and DMSP Estimates
Ionospheric Conductances Due To Electron and Ion Precipitations: A Comparison Between EISCAT and DMSP Estimates Open
Energetic particle precipitation is the major source of electron production that controls the ionospheric Pedersen and Hall conductances at high latitudes. Many studies use empirical formulas to estimate conductances. The particle precipit…
View article: Modeling Next 3-day <i>Kp</i> Index Forecasting with Neural Networks and Exploring the Application of Explainable AI
Modeling Next 3-day <i>Kp</i> Index Forecasting with Neural Networks and Exploring the Application of Explainable AI Open
当前业务中对未来3天Kp指数预报需求强烈. 但地磁暴中多参数耦合导致难以量化各预报因子对Kp值的贡献, 制约了预报精度提升. 本文构建了神经网络3天Kp指数预报模型, 并使用人工智能(AI)可解释性算法定量化各因子贡献. 结果显示, 行星际磁场南向分量在提前3 h对Kp指数的贡献为37.15%, 为主要因子, 说明模型能捕捉符合物理特征的主要预报因子. Kp指数历史特征贡献随提前量逐渐增加, 提前3天总体贡献占68.06%, 验证了对冕洞高速流引起的地磁暴事件的预报能力. …
View article: A modeling study of ≥2 MeV electron fluxes in GEO at different prediction time scales based on LSTM and transformer networks
A modeling study of ≥2 MeV electron fluxes in GEO at different prediction time scales based on LSTM and transformer networks Open
In this study, we develop models to predict the log 10 of ≥2 MeV electron fluxes with 5-minute resolution at the geostationary orbit using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and transformer neural networks for the next 1-hour, 3-hour, 6-hou…
View article: A Strong-flare Prediction Model Developed Using a Machine-learning Algorithm Based on the Video Data Sets of the Solar Magnetic Field of Active Regions
A Strong-flare Prediction Model Developed Using a Machine-learning Algorithm Based on the Video Data Sets of the Solar Magnetic Field of Active Regions Open
It is well accepted that the physical properties obtained from the solar magnetic field observations of active regions (ARs) are related to solar eruptions. These properties consist of temporal features that might reflect the evolution pro…
View article: Two-stage Hierarchical Framework for Solar Flare Prediction
Two-stage Hierarchical Framework for Solar Flare Prediction Open
Solar flares, often accompanied by coronal mass ejections and other solar phenomena, are one of the most important sources affecting space weather. It is important to investigate the forecast approach of solar flares to mitigate their dest…
View article: Deep neural networks of solar flare forecasting for complex active regions
Deep neural networks of solar flare forecasting for complex active regions Open
Solar flare forecasting is one of major components of operational space weather forecasting. Complex active regions (ARs) are the main source producing major flares, but only a few studies are carried out to establish flare forecasting mod…
View article: Contribution of the Chinese Meridian Project to space environment research: Highlights and perspectives
Contribution of the Chinese Meridian Project to space environment research: Highlights and perspectives Open
The Chinese Meridian Project (CMP) is devoted to establishing a comprehensive ground-based monitoring network for China’s space weather research. CMP is a major national science and technology infrastructure project with the participation …
View article: A selective up-sampling method applied upon unbalanced data for flare prediction: potential to improve model performance
A selective up-sampling method applied upon unbalanced data for flare prediction: potential to improve model performance Open
The Spaceweather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) parameters have been widely used to develop flare prediction models. The relatively small number of strong-flare events leads to an unbalanced dataset that prediction models can be sensitive…
View article: Prediction Models of ≥2 MeV Electron Daily Fluences for 3 Days at GEO Orbit Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network
Prediction Models of ≥2 MeV Electron Daily Fluences for 3 Days at GEO Orbit Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network Open
Geostationary satellites are exposed to harsh space weather conditions, including ≥2 MeV electrons from the Earth’s radiation belts. To predict ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences at 75°W and 135°W at geostationary orbit for the following three…