Chad E. Hart
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View article: Examining the factors of fertilizer pricing
Examining the factors of fertilizer pricing Open
A strong surge in fertilizer prices in 2021 led farmers and policymakers to question the factors that drive fertilizer pricing. This study examines the relationship among natural gas, corn, and fertilizer prices, finding five structural br…
View article: A descriptive analysis of the COVID‐19 impacts on U.S. pork, turkey, and egg markets
A descriptive analysis of the COVID‐19 impacts on U.S. pork, turkey, and egg markets Open
The novel coronavirus SARS‐CoV2 (COVID‐19) severely disrupted the U.S. food supply chain. In its initial aftermath, and as we contemplate a potential reignition, the food supply chain industries, researchers, and policy makers search for e…
View article: Is the US Agricultural Sector Recovering from COVID-19?
Is the US Agricultural Sector Recovering from COVID-19? Open
As we outlined in the previous edition of Agricultural Policy Review, agriculture felt the sting of COVID-19—the pandemic lowered prices, forced significant shifts in supply chains, and disrupted markets. However, as the summer progressed,…
View article: Agriculture under the Specter of COVID-19
Agriculture under the Specter of COVID-19 Open
The covid-19 pandemic has forced a lot of changes in the six months since the previous issue of Agricultural Policy Review—schools shuttered, businesses closed, physical distancing and stay-at-home orders were put in place, and the economy…
View article: A Dynamic Model of U.S. Beef Cattle
A Dynamic Model of U.S. Beef Cattle Open
We develop a simple and tractable model that will ultimately estimate and project prices and quantities in the U.S. beef cattle industry. While the economic literature focuses on static equilibrium displacement models to measure the impact…
View article: The Impact of COVID-19 on Iowa’s Corn, Soybean, Ethanol, Pork, and Beef Sectors
The Impact of COVID-19 on Iowa’s Corn, Soybean, Ethanol, Pork, and Beef Sectors Open
In this study, we estimate the COVID-19 outbreak’s revenue impacts on some of Iowa’s largest agricultural industries. We estimate overall annual damage of roughly $788 million for corn, $213 million for soybean, over $2.5 billion for ethan…
View article: The Opportunities and Challenges with Hemp
The Opportunities and Challenges with Hemp Open
Over the past several years as row crop prices declined, farmers and landowners across the nation have searched for alternative crops that might improve the financial bottom line. With the passage of the 2014 and 2018 farm bills, industria…
View article: The Phase One Trade Deal: Projections and Implications
The Phase One Trade Deal: Projections and Implications Open
There have been a number of agricultural market movers (issues that change the direction and intensity of price moves) over the past year; however, most of these movers cancel each other out. Weather problems limited supplies and pushed pr…
View article: Production Projections and Trade Adjustments
Production Projections and Trade Adjustments Open
As the leaves change color and the temperatures fall, traders in agricultural markets concentrate on production and usage figures for crops and livestock. With the delays in crop planting and the uncertainty surrounding trade, USDA has had…
View article: Volatile Prices and Profi t Margins
Volatile Prices and Profi t Margins Open
THE CALENDAR year 2019 has been interesting for agricultural markets. We began the year with record supplies for all of Iowa’s major commodities. However, trade disputes have cast a cloud over growth in crop and livestock usage and weather…
View article: The Yin and Yang of Agricultural Trade
The Yin and Yang of Agricultural Trade Open
It's a fascinating, but uncertain, time in the agricultural markets. Global and US supplies of agricultural products are at or near record levels. At the same time, global demand for agricultural products continues to grow, pressured by bo…
View article: For Farm and Agribusiness Management Strategies and Information...
For Farm and Agribusiness Management Strategies and Information... Open
There is an Iowa State University Extension and Outreach farm and agribusiness management specialist near you.
View article: The Blessing and Curse of Productivity
The Blessing and Curse of Productivity Open
Can you have too much of a good thing? In the case of agricultural products, the answer from a market perspective is yes. Over the past six years, the United States has produced a series of bumper crops, greatly expanded pork production, a…
View article: Current Situation for Iowa's Major Ag Commodities
Current Situation for Iowa's Major Ag Commodities Open
There is a lot of uncertainty in agriculture right now, from the delayed onset of spring and the delayed planting that goes with it, to the ongoing trade disputes and trade agreement renegotiations, agricultural producers are adjusting pro…
View article: Lessons from Previous U.S.-China Trade Disputes
Lessons from Previous U.S.-China Trade Disputes Open
Trade issues have recently erupted between the United States and China and the battle over newly announced tariffs has escalated quickly. At the beginning of 2018, the United States imposed tariffs on imported solar panels and washing mach…
View article: What Can We Learn about U.S.-China Trade Disputes from China’s Past Trade Retaliations?
What Can We Learn about U.S.-China Trade Disputes from China’s Past Trade Retaliations? Open
With the United States exporting over $24.1 billion worth of agricultural and related products to China every year, it is difficult to overestimate the importance of the trade relationship. This is why the trade issues that are currently b…
View article: Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?
Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent? Open
Using agricultural professionals’ forecasts of future farmland values and corn and soybean cash prices for their service area, we analyze whether their land and corresponding crop price expectations are consistent. We find that changes in …
View article: Suggested Closing Inventory Prices For 2018 Records
Suggested Closing Inventory Prices For 2018 Records Open
A uniform set of closing inventory prices for farm products can be used for several purposes. A net worth statement or balance sheet should be developed on or around January 1 to measure the financial progress of the farm from year to year…
View article: Is ARC-CO Acting as a Safety Net Program? Evidence from Iowa
Is ARC-CO Acting as a Safety Net Program? Evidence from Iowa Open
This article uses financial information from Iowa farms to explore the relationship between ARC-CO payments and farm income, profitability, liquidity, solvency, and size. Rather than acting as a safety net for Iowa farmers, ARC-CO payments…
View article: USDA’s Projections for 2018
USDA’s Projections for 2018 Open
US agriculture continues on an amazing productivity run. The last five corn crops are the five largest ever produced. The last four soybean crops are the four largest ever. Meat production exceeded the $100 billion mark for the first time.…
View article: The Impact of the 2018 Trade Disruptions on the Iowa Economy
The Impact of the 2018 Trade Disruptions on the Iowa Economy Open
In this analysis, we use historical trade patterns, revenue linkages, and recent futures market price changes to discern the 2018 tariffs’ near-term impacts on the state of Iowa. We use two distinct modeling techniques, and in each techniq…
View article: What Have We Learned from China’s Past Trade Retaliation Strategies?
What Have We Learned from China’s Past Trade Retaliation Strategies? Open
By examining China’s past strategies, we show that China’s trade retaliation responses follow three principles: responding proportionally with restraint, targeting products that are substitutable, and inflicting economic and political cost…
View article: The Ebbs and Flows of International Trade
The Ebbs and Flows of International Trade Open
AS WE have detailed in various articles in this and other ISU outreach publications, international trade is a significant demand component for our agricultural markets. For the major US agricultural commodities, exports capture between 12 …
View article: Ag Trade and Trade Agreements
Ag Trade and Trade Agreements Open
INTERNATIONAL TRADE and trade agreements have been a major part of the political discussion during the Presidential election and in the first few months of the Trump administration.
View article: International Trade Has Been Major Source for Strengthening Prices
International Trade Has Been Major Source for Strengthening Prices Open
Over the past few months, crop and livestock prices have worked their way higher despite record production across the board. Those large supplies have been met by strong demand for agricultural products. International demand has increased …
View article: Analysis of Grain Basis Behavior During Transportation Disruptions and Development of Weekly Grain Basis Indicators for the USDA Grain Transportation Report
Analysis of Grain Basis Behavior During Transportation Disruptions and Development of Weekly Grain Basis Indicators for the USDA Grain Transportation Report Open
The Transportation Services Division of USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has funded a cooperative agreement (under Cooperative Agreement Number 14-TMXXX-IA-0028) with two research outcomes: (1) A report providing analysis of gra…
View article: USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?
USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed? Open
This study analyzes forecasts of U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat issued by the USDA. The proposed efficiency tests focus on forecast revisions. Forecast errors are decomposed into monthly unforecastable shocks and idiosync…
View article: For Ag, It's Mostly Good News on the Demand Front
For Ag, It's Mostly Good News on the Demand Front Open
The crop and livestock markets have experienced significant swings over the past few years-record crop prices in 2012 and 2013 were followed by record livestock prices in 2014. Since then, prices have tumbled across the board. In most case…