Christopher A. Gilligan
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View article: Parameterisation of epidemiological models from small field experiments: a case study of banana bunchy top virus transmission
Parameterisation of epidemiological models from small field experiments: a case study of banana bunchy top virus transmission Open
Accurate estimation of epidemiological parameters from limited field data remains a major challenge in plant disease modeling. We present a novel data-augmented adaptive multiple importance sampling (DA-AMIS) framework that integrates Baye…
View article: Predicting the cross-continental spread of the cassava brown streak disease epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa
Predicting the cross-continental spread of the cassava brown streak disease epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa Open
Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) is a major threat to smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where cassava is a staple crop. Caused by cassava brown streak ipomoviruses (CBSIs), CBSD has spread extensively since its detection …
View article: Optimizing crop varietal mixtures for viral disease management: A case study on cassava virus epidemics
Optimizing crop varietal mixtures for viral disease management: A case study on cassava virus epidemics Open
Cassava viral diseases, including Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD) and Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD), pose significant threats to global food security, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study explores the potential of varietal mix…
View article: Controlling Banana Bunchy Top Disease in Benin: crop protection strategies with socioeconomic perspectives
Controlling Banana Bunchy Top Disease in Benin: crop protection strategies with socioeconomic perspectives Open
Summary This study combines satellite mapping, field surveillance, farmer surveys, and disease modelling to assess BBTV dynamics across Benin. It provides the first national-scale map of banana cultivation in Benin and identifies high-risk…
View article: Detection of Banana Diseases Based on Landsat-8 Data and Machine Learning
Detection of Banana Diseases Based on Landsat-8 Data and Machine Learning Open
Banana is an important cash and food crop worldwide. Recent outbreaks of banana diseases are threatening the global banana industry and smallholder livelihoods. Remote sensing data offer the potential to detect the presence of disease, but…
View article: Navigating an Intravenous Fluid Shortage Crisis: A Health System's Response to a Hurricane-Induced Supply Disruption
Navigating an Intravenous Fluid Shortage Crisis: A Health System's Response to a Hurricane-Induced Supply Disruption Open
Introduction: Hurricane Helene's disruption of Baxter's North Carolina manufacturing facility in September 2024 created significant supply disruptions and an urgent need to reduce intravenous fluid (IVF) usage across our 12 acute care hosp…
View article: Developing a spatio-temporal model for banana bunchy top disease: leveraging remote sensing and survey data
Developing a spatio-temporal model for banana bunchy top disease: leveraging remote sensing and survey data Open
Epidemics of Banana Bunchy Top Disease (BBTD) in sub-Saharan Africa are threatening global food security and endangering the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. This study introduces methods for developing data-based models to derive banan…
View article: Integration of temperature-driven population model and pest monitoring data to estimate initial conditions and timing of first field invasion: application to the cassava whitefly, <i>Bemisia tabaci</i>
Integration of temperature-driven population model and pest monitoring data to estimate initial conditions and timing of first field invasion: application to the cassava whitefly, <i>Bemisia tabaci</i> Open
Empirical field data and simulation models are often used separately to monitor and analyse the dynamics of insect pest populations over time. Greater insight may be achieved when field data are used directly to parametrize population dyna…
View article: Where to refine spatial data to improve accuracy in crop disease modelling: an analytical approach with examples for cassava
Where to refine spatial data to improve accuracy in crop disease modelling: an analytical approach with examples for cassava Open
Epidemiological modelling plays an important role in global food security by informing strategies for the control and management of invasion and spread of crop diseases. However, the underlying data on spatial locations of host crops that …
View article: Plant pathogen profiling with the EpiPv package
Plant pathogen profiling with the EpiPv package Open
This study introduces a flexible framework for epidemiological profiling of insect-borne plant pathogens (IBPPs), utilizing readily available experimental data. The framework is applicable to most IBPPs transmitted by insects feeding on pl…
View article: Detection of Banana Diseases Based on Landsat-8 Data and Machine Learning
Detection of Banana Diseases Based on Landsat-8 Data and Machine Learning Open
Banana is an important cash and food crop worldwide. Recent outbreaks of banana diseases are threatening the global banana industry and smallholder livelihoods. Remote sensing data offer the potential to detect the presence of disease, but…
View article: Optimizing crop clustering to minimize pathogen invasion in agriculture
Optimizing crop clustering to minimize pathogen invasion in agriculture Open
Context The initial rate of pathogen invasion in crops is influenced by the spatial clustering of susceptible crops and the characteristics of pathogen dispersal. Previous studies have shown that various degrees of crop clustering can effe…
View article: Optimizing crop varietal mixtures for viral disease management: A case study on cassava virus epidemics
Optimizing crop varietal mixtures for viral disease management: A case study on cassava virus epidemics Open
Cassava viral diseases, including Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD) and Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD), pose significant threats to global food security, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study explores the potential of varietal mix…
View article: Restorative Neurostimulation Therapy Compared to Optimal Medical Management: A Randomized Evaluation (RESTORE) for the Treatment of Chronic Mechanical Low Back Pain due to Multifidus Dysfunction
Restorative Neurostimulation Therapy Compared to Optimal Medical Management: A Randomized Evaluation (RESTORE) for the Treatment of Chronic Mechanical Low Back Pain due to Multifidus Dysfunction Open
View article: Predicting the effect of landscape structure on epidemic invasion using an analytical estimate for infection rate
Predicting the effect of landscape structure on epidemic invasion using an analytical estimate for infection rate Open
The influence of landscape structure on epidemic invasion of agricultural crops is often underestimated in the construction and analysis of epidemiological models. Computer simulations of individual-based models (IBMs) are widely used to c…
View article: Correction: ‘Analytical approximation for invasion and endemic thresholds, and the optimal control of epidemics in spatially explicit individual-based models’ (2021), by Suprunenko <i>et al.</i>
Correction: ‘Analytical approximation for invasion and endemic thresholds, and the optimal control of epidemics in spatially explicit individual-based models’ (2021), by Suprunenko <i>et al.</i> Open
View article: A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal
A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal Open
There is an urgent need for mathematical models that can be used to inform the deployment of surveillance, early warning and management systems for transboundary pest invasions. This is especially important for desert locust, one of the mo…
View article: Transmission pathways for the stem rust pathogen into Central and East Asia and the role of the alternate host, barberry
Transmission pathways for the stem rust pathogen into Central and East Asia and the role of the alternate host, barberry Open
After many decades of effective control of stem rust caused by the Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici, (hereafter Pgt) the reported emergence of race TTKSK/ Ug99 of Pgt in Uganda reignited concerns about epidemics worldwide because ∼90% of wo…
View article: Phenology of the spruce bark beetle <i>Ips typographus</i> in the UK under past, current and future climate conditions
Phenology of the spruce bark beetle <i>Ips typographus</i> in the UK under past, current and future climate conditions Open
Societal Impact Statement In 2018, a breeding population of the European spruce bark‐beetle, Ips typographus , was discovered in woodland in southeast England. Ips typographus is a major forest pest in continental Europe; however, despite …
View article: Computational models for improving surveillance for the early detection of direct introduction of cassava brown streak disease in Nigeria
Computational models for improving surveillance for the early detection of direct introduction of cassava brown streak disease in Nigeria Open
Cassava is a key source of calories for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa but its role as a food security crop is threatened by the cross-continental spread of cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) that causes high yield losses. In o…
View article: Advancing crop disease early warning in South Asia by complementing expert surveys with internet media scraping
Advancing crop disease early warning in South Asia by complementing expert surveys with internet media scraping Open
Wheat contributes one‐fifth of the global food supply with an estimated 29% of global production in low and lower‐middle income countries. As production expands across southern Asia, yields are often negatively impacted by outbreaks of fun…
View article: Developing Predictive Models and Early Warning Systems for Invading Pathogens: Wheat Rusts
Developing Predictive Models and Early Warning Systems for Invading Pathogens: Wheat Rusts Open
Innovations in aerobiological and epidemiological modeling are enabling the development of powerful techniques to infer connectivity networks for transboundary pathogens in ways that were not previously possible. The innovations are suppor…
View article: Bayesian Inference for Multiple Datasets
Bayesian Inference for Multiple Datasets Open
Estimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance…
View article: Bayesian Inference for Multiple Datasets
Bayesian Inference for Multiple Datasets Open
Estimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance…
View article: An integrated model for pre- and post-harvest aflatoxin contamination in maize
An integrated model for pre- and post-harvest aflatoxin contamination in maize Open
Aflatoxin contamination caused by colonization of maize by Aspergillus flavus continues to pose a major human and livestock health hazard in the food chain. Increasing attention has been focused on the development of models to predict risk…
View article: A new method for the analysis of access period experiments, illustrated with whitefly-borne cassava mosaic begomovirus
A new method for the analysis of access period experiments, illustrated with whitefly-borne cassava mosaic begomovirus Open
Reports of low transmission efficiency, of a cassava mosaic begomovirus (CMB) in Bemisia tabaci whitefly, diminished the perceived importance of whitefly in CMB epidemics. Studies indicating synergies between B. tabaci and CMB prompt a rec…
View article: Developing a predictive model for an emerging epidemic on cassava in sub-Saharan Africa
Developing a predictive model for an emerging epidemic on cassava in sub-Saharan Africa Open
View article: Modelling the spread of tree pests and pathogens in urban forests
Modelling the spread of tree pests and pathogens in urban forests Open
Understanding the potential dynamics of tree pests and pathogens is a vital component for creating resilient urban treescapes. Epidemiologically relevant features include differences in environmental stress and tree management between stre…
View article: A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal
A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal Open
As climate change leads to new areas being under threat from emerg-ing pests, there is increasing demand for approaches combining mechanistic models and geospatial information. Forecasting based on modelling can in-form surveillance, early…
View article: Modelling the spread and mitigation of an emerging vector-borne pathogen: Citrus greening in the U.S.
Modelling the spread and mitigation of an emerging vector-borne pathogen: Citrus greening in the U.S. Open
Predictive models, based upon epidemiological principles and fitted to surveillance data, play an increasingly important role in shaping regulatory and operational policies for emerging outbreaks. Data for parameterising these strategicall…