Chris Jones
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View article: On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations
On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations Open
Idealized experiments with coupled climate-carbon Earth system models (ESMs) provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to external forcing and for quantifying climate-carbon feedbacks. Here, we analyze globally-ave…
View article: Supplementary material to "Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years"
Supplementary material to "Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years" Open
View article: Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years Open
The Earth’s climate sensitivity remains a significant source of uncertainty in climate projections. A key metric is the Transient Climate Response (TCR), which incorporates aspects of both the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and ocea…
View article: The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1
The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1 Open
We describe a new Earth system model (ESM) experiment protocol, as part of the international Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) project. We propose this as a protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7 (…
View article: Trees, Soil, and Climate: What is the Connection?
Trees, Soil, and Climate: What is the Connection? Open
Land plays an important role in climate, biodiversity, and people’s lives. Plants and soils absorb carbon dioxide, store carbon, and recycle rainwater, affecting the planet’s temperature and weather. Land also provides food, timber, and ot…
View article: flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO <sub>2</sub> emissions
flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO <sub>2</sub> emissions Open
The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required …
View article: State dependence and an emergent constraint on warming after zero emissions
State dependence and an emergent constraint on warming after zero emissions Open
Global warming is expected to stabilise once carbon emissions are brought down to – and remain at – zero. Reaching net zero is thus an obligatory minimum to stay below a specific temperature threshold. But not all net zero futures are crea…
View article: On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations
On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations Open
Idealized experiments with coupled climate-carbon Earth system models (ESMs) provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to external forcing and for quantifying climate-carbon feedbacks. Here, we analyze globally-ave…
View article: Enhancing communication of climate changes under net zero emissions
Enhancing communication of climate changes under net zero emissions Open
Much of the public discourse around climate changes under net zero carbon dioxide emissions has been focused on global mean temperature changes after emissions cessation, which are expected to be limited. More attention needs to be paid to…
View article: Role of Earth system processes in carbon emissions budgets
Role of Earth system processes in carbon emissions budgets Open
Estimates of carbon emissions budgets to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C rely on the near-linear relationship between global temperature change and total CO2 emitted, the Transient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions (…
View article: Achieving Reproducibility and Replicability of Molecular Dynamics and Monte Carlo Simulations Using the Molecular Simulation Design Framework (MoSDeF)
Achieving Reproducibility and Replicability of Molecular Dynamics and Monte Carlo Simulations Using the Molecular Simulation Design Framework (MoSDeF) Open
Molecular simulations are increasingly used to predict thermophysical properties and explore molecular-level phenomena beyond modern imaging techniques. To make these tools accessible to nonexperts, several open-source molecular dynamics (…
View article: Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot
Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot Open
With global warming heading for 1.5 °C, understanding the risks of exceeding this threshold is increasingly urgent. Impacts on human and natural systems are expected to increase with further warming and some may be irreversible. Yet impact…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2025-1714
Comment on egusphere-2025-1714 Open
View article: Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C
Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C Open
Limited progress with mitigation makes it almost inevitable that global warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded. This realization confronts Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with a choice either to sta…
View article: Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data
Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data Open
Reliable, robust, and consistent data are essential foundations for analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, we consider the data from multiple Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 …
View article: Drivers of persistent changes in the global methane cycle under aggressive mitigation action
Drivers of persistent changes in the global methane cycle under aggressive mitigation action Open
To achieve the Paris climate agreement goals, methane (CH4) emission mitigation plays a key role. Therefore, a better understanding of the global methane cycle is indispensable. Here we simulate the global methane cycle fully interactively…
View article: A normalised framework for the Zero Emissions Commitment
A normalised framework for the Zero Emissions Commitment Open
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) measures the transient climate response after carbon emissions cease, defined by whether there is a continued rise or decrease in global surface temperature. A normalised framework for the ZEC connects t…
View article: Rising nitrogen deposition leads to only a minor increase in CO2 uptake in Earth system models
Rising nitrogen deposition leads to only a minor increase in CO2 uptake in Earth system models Open
Current frameworks for evaluating biogeochemical climate change feedbacks in Earth System Models lack an explicit consideration of nitrogen cycling in the land and ocean spheres despite its vital role in limiting primary productivity. As c…
View article: Consistency of global carbon budget between concentration- and emission-driven historical experiments simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models and suggestions for improved simulation of CO <sub>2</sub> concentration
Consistency of global carbon budget between concentration- and emission-driven historical experiments simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models and suggestions for improved simulation of CO <sub>2</sub> concentration Open
Anthropogenically emitted CO2 from fossil fuel use and land use change is partly absorbed by terrestrial ecosystems and the ocean, while the remainder retained in the atmosphere adds to the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration…
View article: A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)
A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) Open
Climate policies evolve quickly, and new scenarios designed around these policies are used to illustrate how they impact global mean temperatures using simple climate models (or climate emulators). Simple climate models are extremely effic…
View article: Assessing terrestrial carbon fluxes and stocks in South America and its major biomes using CMIP6 Earth System Models
Assessing terrestrial carbon fluxes and stocks in South America and its major biomes using CMIP6 Earth System Models Open
South America plays a significant role in the global carbon cycle, with its ecosystems storing substantial amounts of carbon in vegetation and soils. This study analyses the behaviour of components of the carbon cycle and stocks in the who…
View article: Multiple Pathways of Visual Adaptations for Water Column Usage in an Antarctic Adaptive Radiation
Multiple Pathways of Visual Adaptations for Water Column Usage in an Antarctic Adaptive Radiation Open
Evolutionary transitions in water column usage have played a major role in shaping ray‐finned fish diversity. However, the extent to which vision‐associated trait complexity and water column usage is coupled remains unclear. Here we invest…
View article: Climate Stabilisation Under Net Zero CO <sub>2</sub> Emissions
Climate Stabilisation Under Net Zero CO <sub>2</sub> Emissions Open
Under the Paris Agreement, signatories aim to limit the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre‐industrial levels. To achieve this, many countries have made net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets, with the aim of ha…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2024-3874
Comment on egusphere-2024-3874 Open
View article: Recent IUCN Red List assessments of two species of icefish (Channichthyidae) reveal concerns about the Red List process and opportunities for improvement
Recent IUCN Red List assessments of two species of icefish (Channichthyidae) reveal concerns about the Red List process and opportunities for improvement Open
View article: Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation
Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation Open
Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are the main driver of climate change, with global warming increasing almost linearly with cumulative CO 2 emissions. Hence, future warming will primarily result from future emissions of CO 2 …
View article: Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity
Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity Open
Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest‐…
View article: Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6
Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6 Open
Simulation of the carbon cycle in climate models is important due to its impact on climate change, but many weaknesses in its reproduction were found in previous models. Improvements in the representation of the land carbon cycle in Earth …
View article: Investigating Carbon and Nitrogen Conservation in Reported CMIP6 Earth System Model Data
Investigating Carbon and Nitrogen Conservation in Reported CMIP6 Earth System Model Data Open
Reliable, robust, and consistent data are essential foundations for analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, we consider the data from multiple Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 …
View article: The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 Open
Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of diff…