Ciarán Broderick
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View article: Advancing Flood Forecasting in Ireland: Development and Implementation of an Operational Fluvial Forecasting System
Advancing Flood Forecasting in Ireland: Development and Implementation of an Operational Fluvial Forecasting System Open
In response to significant flood events, the Irish Government initiated the development of a national flood forecasting service in 2016. A key milestone in this initiative is the establishment of the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) within M…
View article: Optimizing Hydrometric Network Design for National Flood Forecasting and Warning Services (NFFWS)
Optimizing Hydrometric Network Design for National Flood Forecasting and Warning Services (NFFWS) Open
Effective flood forecasting and warning systems depend on robust hydrometric networks tailored to meet the functional, geographical, and operational demands of real-time monitoring. This study outlines the ideal requirements for hydrometri…
View article: Forecasting of flood events using two-model approach
Forecasting of flood events using two-model approach Open
Floods are one of the most pervasive and costly natural disasters that result in notable socio-economic impacts. Flood forecasting systems are crucial for effective flood risk management, hazard assessment, and decision makings. However, a…
View article: Assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation through a hybrid method of machine learning and discrete wavelet transform techniques, case study: Cork, Ireland
Assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation through a hybrid method of machine learning and discrete wavelet transform techniques, case study: Cork, Ireland Open
Study region: Cork City, Ireland. Study focus: Reconstruction of precipitation timeseries is gaining increasing attention for monitoring and prediction studies. To address the challenges posed by non-smooth distributions of precipitation d…
View article: Do more complex hydrological models produce more skilful streamflow forecasts?
Do more complex hydrological models produce more skilful streamflow forecasts? Open
<p>Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a well-established and widely used approach to hydrological forecasting, the application of which requires a hydrological model that can contribute to forecast skill by providing: (i) accura…
View article: Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times
Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times Open
Skilful hydrological forecasts can benefit decision-making in water resources management and other water-related sectors that require long-term planning. In Ireland, no such service exists to deliver forecasts at the catchment scale. In or…
View article: Benchmarking seasonal forecasting skill using river flow persistence in Irish catchments
Benchmarking seasonal forecasting skill using river flow persistence in Irish catchments Open
This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill of river flow persistence in 46 catchments representing a range of hydrogeological conditions across Ireland. Skill is evaluated against a climatology benchmark forecast and by examining corr…
View article: Conditioning Ensemble Streamflow Prediction with the NorthAtlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times
Conditioning Ensemble Streamflow Prediction with the NorthAtlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times Open
Skilful hydrological forecasts can benefit decision-making in water resources management and other water-related sectors that require long-term planning. In Ireland, no such service exists to deliver forecasts at the catchment scale. In or…
View article: Spatial and temporal patterns in seasonal forecast skill based on river flow persistence in Irish catchments
Spatial and temporal patterns in seasonal forecast skill based on river flow persistence in Irish catchments Open
<p>In this study we assess the seasonal hydrological forecast skill of river flow persistence across a sample of 46 catchments representative of Ireland&#8217;s diverse range of hydrogeological conditions. This statistical approa…
View article: Multi‐century trends to wetter winters and drier summers in the England and Wales precipitation series explained by observational and sampling bias in early records
Multi‐century trends to wetter winters and drier summers in the England and Wales precipitation series explained by observational and sampling bias in early records Open
Globally, few precipitation records extend to the 18th century. The England Wales Precipitation (EWP) series is a notable exception with continuous monthly records from 1766. EWP has found widespread use across diverse fields of research i…
View article: Using a Scenario‐Neutral Framework to Avoid Potential Maladaptation to Future Flood Risk
Using a Scenario‐Neutral Framework to Avoid Potential Maladaptation to Future Flood Risk Open
This study develops a coherent framework to detect those catchment types associated with a high risk of maladaptation to future flood risk. Using the “scenario‐neutral” approach to impact assessment the sensitivity of Irish catchments to f…
View article: Integrating Data Rescue into the Classroom
Integrating Data Rescue into the Classroom Open
Over much of the globe, the temporal extent of meteorological records is limited, yet a wealth of data remains in paper or image form in numerous archives. To date, little attention has been given to the role that students might play in ef…
View article: A 250-year drought catalogue for the island of Ireland (1765-2015)
A 250-year drought catalogue for the island of Ireland (1765-2015) Open
This work created a 250-year historic drought catalogue by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to the Island of Ireland precipitation network (1850–2015) and a reconstructed precipitation series from 1765. Documentary sourc…
View article: A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016)
A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016) Open
A continuous 305-year (1711–2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental…
View article: Navigating Cascades of Uncertainty — As Easy as ABC? Not Quite…
Navigating Cascades of Uncertainty — As Easy as ABC? Not Quite… Open
The uncertainties in scientific studies for climate risk management can be investigated at three levels of complexity: “ABC”. The most sophisticated involves “Analyzing” the full range of uncertainty with large multi-model ensemble experim…
View article: Island of Ireland monthly rainfall series 1711-2016 (IoI_1711)
Island of Ireland monthly rainfall series 1711-2016 (IoI_1711) Open
This dataset provides a continuous monthly rainfall series for the Island of Ireland commencing in January 1711 and running to December 2016. It draws upon diverse sources including weather diaries and early observations. The early record …
View article: A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the Island of Ireland (1711–2016)
A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the Island of Ireland (1711–2016) Open
A continuous 305-year (1711–2016) monthly rainfall series is created for the Island of Ireland. Two overlapping data sources are employed: i) a previously unpublished UK Meteorological Office note containing annual rainfall anomalies and c…
View article: Clustering of Observed Diurnal Cycles of Precipitation over the United States for Evaluation of a WRF Multiphysics Regional Climate Ensemble
Clustering of Observed Diurnal Cycles of Precipitation over the United States for Evaluation of a WRF Multiphysics Regional Climate Ensemble Open
The diurnal cycle of precipitation during the summer season over the contiguous United States is examined in eight distinct regions. These were identified using cluster analysis applied to the diurnal cycle characteristics at 2141 rainfall…
View article: Irish droughts in newspaper archives: rediscovering forgotten hazards?
Irish droughts in newspaper archives: rediscovering forgotten hazards? Open
Irish newspaper collections are a rich source of information on historical droughts. Following a search of 250 years of such archives, this paper brings to light four newspaper articles describing three drought events that convey the cultu…
View article: A 250‐year drought catalogue for the island of Ireland (1765–2015)
A 250‐year drought catalogue for the island of Ireland (1765–2015) Open
This work created a 250‐year historic drought catalogue by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index ( SPI ) to the Island of Ireland precipitation network (1850–2015) and a reconstructed precipitation series from 1765. Documentary sou…
View article: Irish droughts in newspaperarchives: rediscovering forgottenhazards?
Irish droughts in newspaperarchives: rediscovering forgottenhazards? Open
Irish newspaper collections are a rich source of information on historical droughts. Following a search of 250 years of such archives, this paper brings to light four newspaper articles describing three drought events that convey the cultu…
View article: Transferability of hydrological models and ensemble averaging methods between contrasting climatic periods
Transferability of hydrological models and ensemble averaging methods between contrasting climatic periods Open
Understanding hydrological model predictive capabilities under contrasting climate conditions
\nenables more robust decision making. Using Differential Split Sample Testing (DSST), we analyze the
\nperformance of six hydrological models fo…
View article: Past and future climate change in the context of memorableseasonal extremes
Past and future climate change in the context of memorableseasonal extremes Open
© 2016 The Authors. It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenario…