Corentin Herbert
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View article: Gaussian Framework and Optimal Projection of Weather Fields for Prediction of Extreme Events
Gaussian Framework and Optimal Projection of Weather Fields for Prediction of Extreme Events Open
Extreme events are the major weather‐related hazard for humanity. It is then of crucial importance to have a good understanding of their statistics and to be able to forecast them. However, lack of sufficient data makes their study particu…
View article: Tackling the Accuracy–Interpretability Trade-Off in a Hierarchy of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Extreme Heatwaves
Tackling the Accuracy–Interpretability Trade-Off in a Hierarchy of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Extreme Heatwaves Open
When performing predictions that use machine learning (ML), we are mainly interested in performance and interpretability. This generates a natural trade-off, where complex models generally have higher skills but are harder to explain and t…
View article: Climate change induced by equatorial superrotation
Climate change induced by equatorial superrotation Open
Understanding the potential reorganizations of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the tropics is important in the context of anthropogenic climate change and from a theoretical point of view, but also because they might be connecte…
View article: Bistable Dynamics of Ocean Circulation under Antarctic Ice Shelves: Insights from a Low-Dimensional Model
Bistable Dynamics of Ocean Circulation under Antarctic Ice Shelves: Insights from a Low-Dimensional Model Open
While East Antarctica ice shelf cavities are currently filled with cold surface water and experience low basal melting, West Antarctica ice shelf cavities are filled with warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and experience high basal melting.…
View article: Exploring the Critical Role of Tight Junction Proteins in Kidney Disease Pathogenesis
Exploring the Critical Role of Tight Junction Proteins in Kidney Disease Pathogenesis Open
Background: Kidney disease poses a significant global health challenge, marked by a rapid decline in renal function due to a variety of causative factors. A crucial element in the pathophysiology of kidney disease is the dysregulation of e…
View article: Tackling the Accuracy-Interpretability Trade-off in a Hierarchy of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Extreme Heatwaves
Tackling the Accuracy-Interpretability Trade-off in a Hierarchy of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Extreme Heatwaves Open
When performing predictions that use Machine Learning (ML), we are mainly interested in performance and interpretability. This generates a natural trade-off, where complex models generally have higher skills but are harder to explain and t…
View article: Gaussian Framework and Optimal Projection of Weather Fields for Prediction of Extreme Events
Gaussian Framework and Optimal Projection of Weather Fields for Prediction of Extreme Events Open
Extreme events are the major weather-related hazard for humanity. It is then of crucial importance to have a good understanding of their statistics and to be able to forecast them. However, lack of sufficient data makes their study particu…
View article: Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales
Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales Open
The European energy system will undergo major transformations in the coming decades to implement mitigation measures and comply with the Paris Agreement. In particular, the share of weather-dependent wind generation will increase significa…
View article: A Gaussian framework for optimal prediction of extreme heat waves
A Gaussian framework for optimal prediction of extreme heat waves Open
Heat waves are a growing issue in the current climate, causing damage to human societies and other living beings. As climate warms, heat waves are one of the extreme events that will be exacerbated by the rising average temperatures. Under…
View article: Statistics of inhomogeneous turbulence in large-scale quasigeostrophic dynamics
Statistics of inhomogeneous turbulence in large-scale quasigeostrophic dynamics Open
A remarkable feature of two-dimensional turbulence is the transfer of energy from small to large scales. This process can result in the self-organization of the flow into large, coherent structures due to energy condensation at the largest…
View article: Two-Dimensional Turbulence with Local Interactions: Statistics of the Condensate
Two-Dimensional Turbulence with Local Interactions: Statistics of the Condensate Open
International audience
View article: Data accompanying the manuscript "Assessing the Probability of Extremely Low Wind Energy Production in Europe at Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Time Scales"
Data accompanying the manuscript "Assessing the Probability of Extremely Low Wind Energy Production in Europe at Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Time Scales" Open
This dataset contains time series of wind energy production aggregated over France and Europe, obtained from a 1000-year climate simulation from the CESM model (version 1.2.2, Hurrel et al. 2013), coupled to a simple energy model to comput…
View article: Data accompanying the manuscript "Assessing the Probability of Extremely Low Wind Energy Production in Europe at Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Time Scales"
Data accompanying the manuscript "Assessing the Probability of Extremely Low Wind Energy Production in Europe at Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Time Scales" Open
This dataset contains time series of wind energy production aggregated over France and Europe, obtained from a 1000-year climate simulation from the CESM model (version 1.2.2, Hurrel et al. 2013), coupled to a simple energy model to comput…
View article: Two-dimensional turbulence with local interactions: statistics of the condensate
Two-dimensional turbulence with local interactions: statistics of the condensate Open
Two-dimensional turbulence self-organizes through a process of energy accumulation at large scales, forming a coherent flow termed a condensate. We study the condensate in a model with local dynamics, the large-scale quasi-geostrophic equa…
View article: Coupling rare event algorithms with data-based learned committor functions using the analogue Markov chain
Coupling rare event algorithms with data-based learned committor functions using the analogue Markov chain Open
Rare events play a crucial role in many physics, chemistry, and biology phenomena, when they change the structure of the system, for instance in the case of multistability, or when they have a huge impact. Rare event algorithms have been d…
View article: Instantons and the Path to Intermittency in Turbulent Flows
Instantons and the Path to Intermittency in Turbulent Flows Open
Processes leading to anomalous fluctuations in turbulent flows, referred to as intermittency, are still challenging. We consider cascade trajectories through scales as realizations of a stochastic Langevin process for which multiplicative …
View article: Committor Functions for Climate Phenomena at the Predictability Margin: The Example of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Jin and Timmermann Model
Committor Functions for Climate Phenomena at the Predictability Margin: The Example of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Jin and Timmermann Model Open
Many atmosphere and climate phenomena lie in the gray zone between weather and climate: they are not amenable to deterministic forecast, but they still depend on the initial condition. A natural example is medium-range forecasting, which i…
View article: Assessing the probability of extremely rare renewable production and residual load in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales
Assessing the probability of extremely rare renewable production and residual load in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales Open
<p>In the coming decades, the European energy system will undergo major transformations, like widespread electrification and fast development of variable renewable energy, in order to reach carbon neutrality and comply with the Paris…
View article: Advances in rare event simulations using data-based estimation of committor functions
Advances in rare event simulations using data-based estimation of committor functions Open
<p>Rare events, such as heat waves, floods, or hurricanes, play a crucial role in climate dynamics mainly due to the large impact they have. Predicting the occurrence of such events is thus a major challenge.<span>&#160;<…
View article: Bistability and hysteresis of the large-scale tropical circulation in idealized GCM simulations
Bistability and hysteresis of the large-scale tropical circulation in idealized GCM simulations Open
<p>The potential impact of tipping points for climate dynamics is now widely recognized. Furthermore, paleoclimate records suggest that abrupt climate changes have indeed occurred in Earth&#8217;s past, potentially on timescales …
View article: Committor Functions for Climate Phenomena at the Predictability Margin: The example of El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Jin and Timmerman model
Committor Functions for Climate Phenomena at the Predictability Margin: The example of El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Jin and Timmerman model Open
Many phenomena in the climate system lie in the gray zone between weather and climate: they are not amenable to deterministic forecast, but they still depend on the initial condition. A natural example is medium-range forecasting, which is…
View article: Instantons and the path to intermittency in turbulent flows
Instantons and the path to intermittency in turbulent flows Open
Processes leading to anomalous fluctuations in turbulent flows, referred to as intermittency, are still challenging. We consider cascade trajectories through scales as realizations of a stochastic Langevin process for which multiplicative …
View article: Predicting extreme events using dynamics based machine learning.&#160;
Predicting extreme events using dynamics based machine learning.  Open
<p>Many phenomena in the climate system lie in the gray zone between weather and climate: they are not amenable to deterministic forecast, but they still depend on the initial condition. A natural example is medium-range forecasting,…
View article: Drivers of midlatitude extreme heat waves revealed by analogues and machine learning
Drivers of midlatitude extreme heat waves revealed by analogues and machine learning Open
<p>One of the big challenges today is to appropriately describe heat waves, which are relevant due to their impact on human society. Common characteristics in mid-latitudes involve meanders of the westerly flow and concomitant large …
View article: Machine Learning of committor functions for predicting high impact climate events
Machine Learning of committor functions for predicting high impact climate events Open
<p>There is a growing interest in the climate community to improve the prediction of high impact climate events, for instance ENSO (El-Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation) or extreme events, using a combination of model and observation data…
View article: Turbulence Statistics in a Two-Dimensional Vortex Condensate
Turbulence Statistics in a Two-Dimensional Vortex Condensate Open
Disentangling the evolution of a coherent mean-flow and turbulent fluctuations, interacting through the nonlinearity of the Navier-Stokes equations, is a central issue in fluid mechanics. It affects a wide range of flows, such as planetary…
View article: Turbulence Statistics in a Two-Dimensional Vortex Condensate
Turbulence Statistics in a Two-Dimensional Vortex Condensate Open
International audience
View article: Predictability of escape for a stochastic saddle-node bifurcation: When rare events are typical
Predictability of escape for a stochastic saddle-node bifurcation: When rare events are typical Open
Transitions between multiple stable states of nonlinear systems are ubiquitous in physics, chemistry, and beyond. Two types of behaviors are usually seen as mutually exclusive: unpredictable noise-induced transitions and predictable bifurc…
View article: Waves and vortices in the inverse cascade regime of stratified turbulence with or without rotation
Waves and vortices in the inverse cascade regime of stratified turbulence with or without rotation Open
We study the partition of energy between waves and vortices in stratified turbulence, with or without rotation, for a variety of parameters, focusing on the behaviour of the waves and vortices in the inverse cascade of energy towards the l…