Explanipedia

House Price Cycles in the Euro Area Countries: Similarities and Differences Open

Torsten C. Schmidt, Jeffrey P. Cohen, Jan Prüser, Daniel Soques · 2025

Perfect Recession Predictors Open

Anthony M. Diercks, Daniel Soques, Jing Cynthia Wu · 2025

Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models Open

Neville Francis, Michael T. Owyang, Daniel Soques · 2023

We calculate impulse response functions from regime-switching models where the driving variable can respond to the shock.Two methods used to estimate the impulse responses in these models are generalized impulse response functions and loca…

The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation Open

Anthony M. Diercks, Colin D. Campbell, Steven A. Sharpe, Daniel Soques · 2023

This study examines the forecasting performance of inflation swaps and survey-based expectations for one-year inflation. Conducting this exercise helps determine if one set of expectations can provide a cleaner signal about future inflatio…

Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models Open

Michael T. Owyang, Daniel Soques, Neville Francis · 2023

We calculate impulse response functions from regime-switching models where the driving variable can respond to the shock.Two methods used to estimate the impulse responses in these models are generalized impulse response functions and loca…

Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models Open

Neville Francis, Michael T. Owyang, Daniel Soques · 2023

The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves Open

Michael T. Owyang, Hannah Shell, Daniel Soques · 2022

The slow recovery of the labor market in the aftermath of the Great Recession highlighted mismatch, the misallocation of workers across space or across industries.We consider the historical evolution of regional mismatch.We construct MSA-l…

Fiscal Challenge: An Experiential Exercise in Policy Making Open

Mike Aguilar, Daniel Soques · 2021

In this article we introduce a pedagogical innovation that is designed to enhance our students' understanding of fiscal policy, in general, and the national debt and deficit, in particular. The innovation leverages the educational advantag…

Business Cycles across Space and Time Open

Neville Francis, Michael T. Owyang, Daniel Soques · 2021

We study the comovement of international business cycles in a time‐series clustering model with regime switching. We extend the framework of Hamilton and Owyang (2012) to include time‐varying transition probabilities to determine what driv…

The 283 Days of Stock Returns after the 2016 Election Open

Anthony M. Diercks, Daniel Soques, William S. Waller · 2020

Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements Open

Amy Guisinger, Michael T. Owyang, Daniel Soques · 2020

The effect of economic shocks on business cycles fluctuations may vary across industries. For example, shocks that originate in a single industry may propagate elsewhere, either up or down stream in the production chain. Thus, industries t…

Regime-switching Models of the Business Cycle Open

Daniel Soques · 2019

A popular way to describe the business cycle is as a movement between distinct phases of expansion and recession. During expansions, output growth and employment are relatively high, whereas recessions are characterized by sluggish output …

Business Cycles Across Space and Time Open

Michael T. Owyang, Daniel Soques, Neville Francis · 2019

We study the comovement of international business cycles in a time series clustering model with regime-switching.We extend the framework of Hamilton and Owyang (2012) to include time-varying transition probabilities to determine what drive…

House Price Growth Interdependencies and Comovement Open

Cletus C. Coughlin, Daniel Soques, Jeffrey P. Cohen · 2019

This paper examines house price comovement across U.S. metropolitan areas (MSAs). We develop a Markov-switching framework that includes a spatial similarity element based on distances between MSAs. Our approach allows for house price comov…

Nonlinearities, Smoothing and Countercyclical Monetary Policy Open

Michael T. Owyang, Daniel Soques, Laura E. Jackson · 2016

Empirical analysis of the Fed's monetary policy behavior suggests that the Fed smooths interest rates-that is, the Fed moves the federal funds rate target in several small steps instead of one large step with the same magnitude.We evaluate…

Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles? Open

Neville Francis, Michael T. Owyang, Daniel Soques · 2015

he U.S. economy is the largest in the world.In 2012, the United States accounted for 22.4 percent of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) and 35.1 percent of the world's total market capitalization (World Bank, 2012).The Great Recessio…

Nonlinearities, Smoothing and countercyclical Monetary Policy Open

Laura E. Jackson, Michael T. Owyang, Daniel Soques · 2015

Parallel Sessions E: Macroeconomic Policy

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