Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia
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View article: Is China Really Growing at 5 Percent?
Is China Really Growing at 5 Percent? Open
Chinese authorities recently announced a growth target of "around 5 percent" for 2025, the same as their 2024 target. Five percent is about half the pace of growth that China sustained from the 1980s to the early 2010s, but it is nonethele…
View article: Global Implications of Brighter U.S. Productivity Prospects
Global Implications of Brighter U.S. Productivity Prospects Open
Investment related to artificial intelligence (AI) is booming in the U.S. compared to other countries, as shown in figure 1. Moreover, new business registrations have surged in the U.S. since the pandemic, unlike in the euro area where new…
View article: Lessons from the Co-movement of Inflation around the World
Lessons from the Co-movement of Inflation around the World Open
The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a surge in inflation around the world, reflecting rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices exacerbated by the Russi…
View article: Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World
Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World Open
In economics, we need to forecast the present because reliable and comprehensive measures of the state of the economy are released with a substantial delay and considerable measurement error. Nowcasting exploits timely data to obtain early…
View article: Drivers of Post-pandemic Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies and Implications for the Outlook
Drivers of Post-pandemic Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies and Implications for the Outlook Open
With the reopening of economies from strict COVID-19 lockdowns and the war-induced sharp increases in food, energy, and other commodity prices, headline inflation has surged globally, as shown for a few selected advanced economies by the b…
View article: The SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Inflation Risk and Uncertainty
The SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Inflation Risk and Uncertainty Open
Uncertainty about inflation has risen considerably across the globe since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Lack of clarity about how far inflation might fall during the depths of the pandemic gave way to concerns about inflationary pres…
View article: What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China
What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China Open
Spillovers from China to global financial markets have been found to be small owing to China's limited integration in the global financial system. In this paper, however, we provide evidence that China constitutes an important driver of th…
View article: Pandemic Priors
Pandemic Priors Open
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the great lockdown caused macroeconomic variables to display complex patterns that hardly follow any historical behavior. In the context of Bayesian VARs, an off-the-shelf exercise demonstrates how a …
View article: Forecast Revisions as Instruments for News Shocks
Forecast Revisions as Instruments for News Shocks Open
Upon arrival of macroeconomic news, economic agents update their beliefs about the long-run fundamentals of the economy. I show that signals about the agents’ long-run expectations, proxied by the economic outlook revisions of professional…
View article: Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations
Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations Open
Since the start of the pandemic, views about the evolution of aggregate consumer prices moved swiftly from concerns about deflation to fears about excessive inflation. It is hard to find a parallel in the history of the U.S. economy—or the…
View article: International Measures of Common Inflation
International Measures of Common Inflation Open
<ns2:p>A key challenge for monetary policymakers in achieving their inflation goals—particularly important at the current juncture—is to be able to distinguish between persistent inflationary changes and short-term id…
View article: Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model
Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model Open
We build a model for simultaneously now-casting economic conditions in the euro area and its three largest member countries|Germany, France, and Italy. The model formalizes how market participants and policymakers monitor the euro area by …
View article: News and Uncertainty Shocks
News and Uncertainty Shocks Open
We provide novel evidence that technological news and uncertainty shocks, identified one at a time using vector autoregressive (VAR) models as in the literature, are correlated; that is, they are not truly structural . We then proceed by p…
View article: What is Certain about Uncertainty?
What is Certain about Uncertainty? Open
Researchers, policymakers, and market participants have become increasingly focused on the effects of uncertainty and risk on financial market and economic outcomes. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the many existing measures …
View article: Replication data for: Patent-Based News Shocks
Replication data for: Patent-Based News Shocks Open
The files that are necessary to replicate all the Figures and Tables in the paper.
View article: Patent-Based News Shocks
Patent-Based News Shocks Open
We exploit firm-level data on patent grants and subsequent reactions of stocks to identify technological news shocks. Changes in stock market valuations due to announcements of individual patent grants represent expected future increases i…
View article: News and Uncertainty Shocks
News and Uncertainty Shocks Open
We provide novel evidence that technological news and uncertainty shocks, identified one at a time using VAR models as in the literature, are correlated; that is, they are not truly structural. We then proceed by proposing an identificatio…
View article: hline.m
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View article: EXT_SHOCKS.xls
EXT_SHOCKS.xls Open
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View article: diagrv.m
diagrv.m Open
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View article: EXT_SHOCKS.mat
EXT_SHOCKS.mat Open
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View article: vm_loaddata.m
vm_loaddata.m Open
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View article: seqa.m
seqa.m Open
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View article: xiq.tab
xiq.tab Open
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View article: Readme.docx
Readme.docx Open
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View article: NBERbc.m
NBERbc.m Open
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View article: vmed_patent.mat
vmed_patent.mat Open
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View article: data_choosevars_temp.m
data_choosevars_temp.m Open
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