Darren Lumbroso
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View article: Rethinking Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFW) for multi-risks
Rethinking Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFW) for multi-risks Open
Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFWs) are crucial for disaster risk reduction; however, most systems focus on single hazards, overlooking the complex interactions of multi-risk events. This siloed approach can underestimate impacts, …
View article: Quantifying the Flood Risk Reduction of Coastal Nature‐Based Solutions in the Caribbean: Implications for Developing Insurance Products
Quantifying the Flood Risk Reduction of Coastal Nature‐Based Solutions in the Caribbean: Implications for Developing Insurance Products Open
Tourist‐related businesses, which are key to the economies of many small island states in the Caribbean, are often vulnerable to coastal flooding. Nature‐based solutions, such as coral reefs and mangroves, can help to reduce their coastal …
View article: River Flow 2024
River Flow 2024 Open
Nowadays, rivers are affected by increasing human pressure, which might eventually result in a loss of their natural characteristics. These changes are further enhanced by a variation in the hydrological regime, mostly connected with clima…
View article: Current uses and potential future needs for climate services in South Africa
Current uses and potential future needs for climate services in South Africa Open
A central aim of climate services is the design and delivery of information that is tailored and targeted to different decision-making contexts. To assess whether climate services are meeting this aim, it is necessary to take stock of the …
View article: Increasing urban flood resilience through public participation: A case study of Tuti Island in Khartoum, Sudan
Increasing urban flood resilience through public participation: A case study of Tuti Island in Khartoum, Sudan Open
Over the past 30 years, Sudan has experienced several severe floods which have caused loss of life and significant damage to property. The frequency and intensity of floods in Sudan are predicted to increase as a result of climate change. …
View article: Development of an agent-based model to improve emergency planning for floods and dam failures
Development of an agent-based model to improve emergency planning for floods and dam failures Open
The Life Safety Model (LSM) is an agent-based model which assists with emergency planning and risk assessments for floods and dam failures by providing estimates of fatalities and evacuation times. The LSM represents the interactions of ag…
View article: Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam
Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam Open
Dengue is expanding globally, but how dengue emergence is shaped locally by interactions between climatic and socio-environmental factors is not well understood. Here, we investigate the drivers of dengue incidence and emergence in Vietnam…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2022-1393
Comment on egusphere-2022-1393 Open
Abstract. Using mathematical modelling and computer simulations, economic damages and life loss estimates are results that, when prospectively designed based on the comparison of different flood alert scenarios that can be implemented, pro…
View article: Exorcising Malthusian ghosts: Vaccinating the Nexus to advance integrated water, energy and food resource resilience
Exorcising Malthusian ghosts: Vaccinating the Nexus to advance integrated water, energy and food resource resilience Open
Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus interactions vary from seemingly negative and intractable wicked problems to opportunities for enhanced sustainability. The aim of this paper is to review the current state of understanding on WEF resource int…
View article: Effective Coastal Climate Services—An End-User Perspective for Resilient Infrastructure
Effective Coastal Climate Services—An End-User Perspective for Resilient Infrastructure Open
This paper focusses on identifying the responses to coastal climate change that are of interest for decision-making by end users and the delivery and the necessary communication process for this information. The focus is on representation …
View article: A Review of Dengue’s Historical and Future Health Risk from a Changing Climate
A Review of Dengue’s Historical and Future Health Risk from a Changing Climate Open
Purpose of review The purpose of this review is to summarize research articles that provide risk estimates for the historical and future impact that climate change has had upon dengue published from 2007 through 2019. Recent findings Findi…
View article: R code for the paper "Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles"
R code for the paper "Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles" Open
The R code presented here provides all the scripts required to run the superensemble of probabilistic dengue models presented in the paper "Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles" publi…
View article: Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles
Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles Open
Background With enough advanced notice, dengue outbreaks can be mitigated. As a climate-sensitive disease, environmental conditions and past patterns of dengue can be used to make predictions about future outbreak risk. These predictions i…
View article: Agent-based modelling of juvenile eel migration via selective tidal stream transport
Agent-based modelling of juvenile eel migration via selective tidal stream transport Open
Recruitment of temperate eel species Anguilla anguilla, A. rostrata & A. japonica has declined over the last few decades due to human activities, such as overfishing and construction of migratory barriers (e.g. dams, weirs and sluices)…
View article: Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced
Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced Open
In recent years the number of tailings dams failures has increased. On 25 January 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil suddenly failed, releasing a mudflow over 10 m deep comprising some 107 m3 of mining waste which killed between 2…
View article: Reply to comments
Reply to comments Open
Comment: This chart seems to show the 9.7M cu.m volume, not the +35% volume of 13M cu.m
View article: Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced
Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced Open
In recent years the number of tailings dams failures has increased. On 25 January 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil suddenly failed releasing a mudflow over 10 m deep comprising some 10 million m3 of mining waste which killed bet…
View article: Brumadinho tailings dam, Brazil model animations of mudflow and risk to people plus GIS files
Brumadinho tailings dam, Brazil model animations of mudflow and risk to people plus GIS files Open
The data set comprises animations of modelling the mudflow and risks to people carried out of the Brumadinho tailings dam failure which occurred in January 2019. Some additional GIS files are also included.
View article: Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam using superensembles
Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam using superensembles Open
Timely information is key for decision-making. The ability to predict dengue transmission ahead of time would significantly benefit planners and decision-makers. Dengue is climate-sensitive. Monitoring climate variability could provide adv…
View article: Flood risk management in Africa
Flood risk management in Africa Open
The continent of Africa comprises 54 states, and its climatic conditions are incredibly diverse, ranging from equatorial to desert. Rainfall and river flows in Africa show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal s…
View article: Selection and integration of Earth Observation-based data for an operational disease forecasting system
Selection and integration of Earth Observation-based data for an operational disease forecasting system Open
<p>The current increase in the volume and quality of Earth Observation (EO) data being collected by satellites offers the potential to contribute to applications across a wide range of scientific domains. It is well established that …
View article: D-MOSS: Dengue Fever Forecasting for Vietnam &#8211; Assessment of an Operational System.
D-MOSS: Dengue Fever Forecasting for Vietnam – Assessment of an Operational System. Open
<p>Dengue fever is now present in over 150 countries world-wide, affecting 390 million people per year. In Vietnam the number of cases has increased by 100% since 2000, and 2019 exhibited exceptional high numbers of reported dengue f…
View article: Flood risk management in Africa (Editorial)
Flood risk management in Africa (Editorial) Open
The continent of Africa comprises 54 states, and its climatic conditions are incredibly diverse, ranging from equatorial to desert. Rainfall and river flows in Africa show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal s…
View article: D-MOSS: An integrated dengue early warning system in Vietnam driven by Earth Observations
D-MOSS: An integrated dengue early warning system in Vietnam driven by Earth Observations Open
Dengue is the fastest-growing mosquito-borne viral infection in the world today. It is present in over 150 countries, meaning that around 40 percent of the world’s population now live in countries where dengue is a daily risk. It has been …