David McInerney
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View article: Software library to quantify the value of forecasts for decision-making: Case study on sensitivity to damages
Software library to quantify the value of forecasts for decision-making: Case study on sensitivity to damages Open
View article: Virtual Hydrological Laboratories: Developing the Next Generation of Conceptual Models to Support Decision Making Under Change
Virtual Hydrological Laboratories: Developing the Next Generation of Conceptual Models to Support Decision Making Under Change Open
As hydrological systems are pushed outside the envelope of historical experience, the ability of current hydrological models to serve as a basis for credible prediction and decision making is increasingly challenged. Conceptual models are …
View article: Neglecting hydrological errors can severely impact predictions of water resource system performance 
Neglecting hydrological errors can severely impact predictions of water resource system performance  Open
Risk-based decision making for water resource systems often relies on streamflow predictions from hydrological models. These predictions are integral for estimating the frequency of high consequence extreme events, such as floods and droug…
View article: Virtual Hydrological Laboratories to develop the next generation of conceptual models and support decision-making under change
Virtual Hydrological Laboratories to develop the next generation of conceptual models and support decision-making under change Open
The ability of contemporary hydrological models to serve as a basis for credible prediction and decision making is increasingly challenged – especially as hydrological systems are pushed outside the envelope of historical experience.…
View article: Neglecting hydrological errors can severely impact predictions of water resource system performance
Neglecting hydrological errors can severely impact predictions of water resource system performance Open
Risk-based decision making for water resource systems often relies on streamflow predictions from hydrological models. These predictions are integral for estimating the frequency of high consequence extreme events, such as floods and droug…
View article: Software Library to Quantify the Value of Forecasts for Decision-Making: Case Study on Sensitivity to Damages
Software Library to Quantify the Value of Forecasts for Decision-Making: Case Study on Sensitivity to Damages Open
View article: A climate stress testing method for changes in spatially variable rainfall
A climate stress testing method for changes in spatially variable rainfall Open
With emerging evidence that anthropogenic climate change is affecting the spatial pattern of rainfall, it is important to understand how such changes affect a range of climate-sensitive systems. A method for generating multi-site rainfall …
View article: Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction
Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction Open
Floods and heavy precipitation have disruptive impacts worldwide, but their historical variability remains only partially understood at the global scale. This article aims at reducing this knowledge gap by jointly analyzing seasonal maxima…
View article: Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts Open
Streamflow forecasts have the potential to improve water resource decision-making, but their economic value has not been widely evaluated, since current forecast value methods have critical limitations. The ubiquitous measure for forecast …
View article: Seamless streamflow forecasting at daily to monthly scales: MuTHRE lets you have your cake and eat it too
Seamless streamflow forecasting at daily to monthly scales: MuTHRE lets you have your cake and eat it too Open
Subseasonal streamflow forecasts inform a multitude of water management decisions, from early flood warning to reservoir operation. Seamless forecasts, i.e. forecasts that are reliable and sharp over a range of lead times (1–30 d) and aggr…
View article: Reply on RC1
Reply on RC1 Open
Abstract. Subseasonal streamflow forecasts inform a multitude of water management decisions, from early flood warning to reservoir operation. ‘Seamless’ forecasts, i.e., forecasts that are reliable over a range of lead tim…
View article: Reply on RC2
Reply on RC2 Open
Abstract. Subseasonal streamflow forecasts inform a multitude of water management decisions, from early flood warning to reservoir operation. ‘Seamless’ forecasts, i.e., forecasts that are reliable over a range of lead tim…
View article: Comment on hess-2021-589
Comment on hess-2021-589 Open
Subseasonal streamflow forecasts inform a multitude of water management decisions, from early flood warning to reservoir operation. ‘Seamless’ forecasts, i.e., forecasts that are reliable over a range of lead times (1–30 days) and when agg…
View article: Improving sub-seasonal forecasts of high and low flows using a flow-dependent nonparametric model
Improving sub-seasonal forecasts of high and low flows using a flow-dependent nonparametric model Open
<p>Sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts are used in a wide range of water resource management and planning applications. Practical interest includes forecasts of high flows (e.g., for managing flood events) and low flows (e.g., for mana…
View article: High-quality probabilistic predictions for existing hydrological models with common objective functions &#160; &#160;
High-quality probabilistic predictions for existing hydrological models with common objective functions     Open
<p>Probabilistic predictions describe the uncertainty in modelled streamflow, which is a critical input for many environmental modelling applications.  A residual error model typically produces the probabilistic predictions …
View article: A Global-Scale Analysis of Hydrologic Extremes using Hidden Climate Indices
A Global-Scale Analysis of Hydrologic Extremes using Hidden Climate Indices Open
<p>Hydrologic extremes (floods and intense precipitations) are among Earth’s most common natural hazards and cause considerable loss of life and economic damage. Describing their space-time variability in relation to climat…
View article: Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts Open
Forecasts have the potential to improve decision-making but have not been widely evaluated because current forecast value methods have critical limitations. The ubiquitous Relative Economic Value (REV) metric is limited to binary decisions…
View article: Seamless streamflow model provides forecasts at all scales from daily to monthly and matches the performance of non-seamless monthly model
Seamless streamflow model provides forecasts at all scales from daily to monthly and matches the performance of non-seamless monthly model Open
Subseasonal streamflow forecasts inform a multitude of water management decisions, from early flood warning to reservoir operation. ‘Seamless’ forecasts, i.e., forecasts that are reliable over a range of lead times (1–30 days) and when agg…
View article: Improving sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts across flow regimes
Improving sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts across flow regimes Open
Sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts are important for a range of water resource management applications, with a distinct practical interest in forecasts of high flows (e.g. for managing flood events) and low flows (e.g. for managing environm…
View article: Recent learnings towards achieving high quality probabilistic predictions in practical applications of hydrological models
Recent learnings towards achieving high quality probabilistic predictions in practical applications of hydrological models Open
Hydrological predictionsand environmental predictions in generalare inevitably affected by substantial uncertainty due to limitations in data quality and model simplifications.Probabilistic predictions, where predictive uncertainty is repr…
View article: Modelling hydrological change due to wildfires
Modelling hydrological change due to wildfires Open
Wildfires are an important hydrological disturbance altering runoff by the fire induced changes (from heat and smoke) to vegetation and soils.The damage to both vegetation and soils creates immediate local changes to water portioning and a…
View article: Advances in subseasonal streamflow forecasting: An overview
Advances in subseasonal streamflow forecasting: An overview Open
Sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts, with lead times up to 30 days, can provide valuable information for water management, including reservoir operation to meet environmental flow, irrigation demands, and managing flood protection storage.A …
View article: A method to calibrate daily rainfall-runoff models to monthly streamflow data
A method to calibrate daily rainfall-runoff models to monthly streamflow data Open
Conceptual hydrological models that predict streamflow at daily time steps are widely used in water forecasting, water resources planning and operations.Typically, these models are calibrated using daily observed streamflow data.However, i…
View article: A Hidden Climate Indices Modeling Framework for Multivariable Space‐Time Data
A Hidden Climate Indices Modeling Framework for Multivariable Space‐Time Data Open
Risk assessment for climate‐sensitive systems often relies on the analysis of several variables measured at many sites. In probabilistic terms, the task is to model the joint distribution of several spatially distributed variables, and how…
View article: An open-source R-package and web application for high-quality probabilistic predictions in hydrology
An open-source R-package and web application for high-quality probabilistic predictions in hydrology Open
<p>Probabilistic predictions provide crucial information regarding the uncertainty of hydrological predictions, which are a key input for risk-based decision-making. However, they are often excluded from hydrological modelling applic…
View article: Advantages of calibrating a daily rainfall-runoff model to monthly streamflow data
Advantages of calibrating a daily rainfall-runoff model to monthly streamflow data Open
<p>Development of robust approaches for calibrating daily rainfall-runoff models to monthly streamflow data enable modelling platforms that operate at daily time step to be applied in practical situations. Here precipitation is avail…
View article: Improving representation of zero flows in probabilistic hydrological modelling of ephemeral catchments
Improving representation of zero flows in probabilistic hydrological modelling of ephemeral catchments Open
<p>Ephemeral catchments, where streamflow is frequently zero or negligible, are common across the world yet difficult to model reliably. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches for modelling streamflow in ephemeral catchments, …
View article: Do you want Seamless Subseasonal Streamflow Forecasts?&#160; &#160; Ask MuTHRE!
Do you want Seamless Subseasonal Streamflow Forecasts?    Ask MuTHRE! Open
<p>Sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts (with lead times of 1-30 days) provide valuable information for many consequential water resource management decisions, including reservoir operation to meet environmental flow and irrigation dema…
View article: Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales
Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales Open
Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, …
View article: Benefits of Explicit Treatment of Zero Flows in Probabilistic Hydrological Modeling of Ephemeral Catchments
Benefits of Explicit Treatment of Zero Flows in Probabilistic Hydrological Modeling of Ephemeral Catchments Open
Probabilistic modeling of streamflow in ephemeral catchments, where streamflow is frequently zero or negligible, is a major scientific and operational challenge. This paper evaluates the benefits of an explicit treatment of zero flows in t…