David M. H. Sexton
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View article: Opinion: The importance and future development of perturbed parameter ensembles in climate and atmospheric science
Opinion: The importance and future development of perturbed parameter ensembles in climate and atmospheric science Open
A grand challenge in climate science is to translate advances in our fundamental understanding into reduced uncertainty in climate projections Model uncertainty, characterized for example by the spread of simulations of future climate proj…
View article: A clearer view of systematic errors in model development: two practical approaches using perturbed parameter ensembles
A clearer view of systematic errors in model development: two practical approaches using perturbed parameter ensembles Open
Models of weather and climate are continuously being developed to improve their reliability and, ultimately, to help users make more informed decisions. But they are often affected by inadequacies in the physical approximations they use, w…
View article: A clearer view of systematic errors in model development: two practical approaches using perturbed parameter ensembles.
A clearer view of systematic errors in model development: two practical approaches using perturbed parameter ensembles. Open
Models of weather and climate are continuously being developed to improve their reliability and, ultimately, to help users make more informed decisions. But they are often affected by inadequacies in the physical approximations they use, w…
View article: Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment
Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment Open
The occurrence of blocking weather patterns over Europe is analysed in a large ensemble of simulations of a climate model with perturbed physical parameters. The experiments were performed with HadGEM3‐GC3 for the UK Climate Change Project…
View article: Effect of resolution on simulated teleconnections to winter North Atlantic circulation inferred from a causal network derived from expert elicitation
Effect of resolution on simulated teleconnections to winter North Atlantic circulation inferred from a causal network derived from expert elicitation Open
View article: Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world
Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world Open
The reality of human-induced climate change is unequivocal and exerts an ever-increasing global impact. Access to the latest scientific information on current climate change and projection of future trends is important for planning adaptat…
View article: Twenty-first century marine climate projections for the NW European shelf seas based on a perturbed parameter ensemble
Twenty-first century marine climate projections for the NW European shelf seas based on a perturbed parameter ensemble Open
The northwest European shelf (NWS) seas are environmentally and economically important, and an understanding of how their climate may change helps with their management. However, as the NWS seas are poorly represented in global climate mod…
View article: Prediction of slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in coupled model simulations
Prediction of slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in coupled model simulations Open
In coupled perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) experiments or for development of a single coupled global climate model (GCM) in general, models can exhibit a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that can result…
View article: Describing future UK winter precipitation in terms of changes in local circulation patterns
Describing future UK winter precipitation in terms of changes in local circulation patterns Open
Social scientists have argued that good communication around risks in climate hazards requires information to be presented in a user-relevant way, allowing people to better understand the factors controlling those risks. We present a poten…
View article: Improved Understanding and Characterisation of Climate Hazards in the UK
Improved Understanding and Characterisation of Climate Hazards in the UK Open
View article: Supplementary material to "21st century marine climate projections for the NW European Shelf Seas based on a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble"
Supplementary material to "21st century marine climate projections for the NW European Shelf Seas based on a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble" Open
2 dimensional files that were not archived, and how they were replaced: "Daily Means" the daily mean files were archived, and have been averaged into monthly means.
View article: 21st century marine climate projections for the NW European Shelf Seas based on a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble
21st century marine climate projections for the NW European Shelf Seas based on a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Open
The North West European Shelf Seas (NWS) are environmentally and economically important, and an understanding of how their climate may change helps with their management. However, as the NWS are poorly represented in Global Climate Models,…
View article: The Relationship Between the Present‐Day Seasonal Cycles of Clouds in the Mid‐Latitudes and Cloud‐Radiative Feedback
The Relationship Between the Present‐Day Seasonal Cycles of Clouds in the Mid‐Latitudes and Cloud‐Radiative Feedback Open
We show that the seasonal cycles of clouds over the mid‐latitude oceans in the Northern Hemisphere are predictors of the responses of clouds to increasing sea‐surface temperatures globally. These regions are therefore “natural laboratories…
View article: Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing Open
Aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty affects estimates of climate sensitivity and limits model skill in terms of making climate projections. Efforts to improve the representations of physical processes in climate models, including extensi…
View article: Sensitivities of the Asian Summer Monsoon Simulations to Physical Parameters for the Perturbed Parameter Ensemble of HadGEM3‐GC3.05
Sensitivities of the Asian Summer Monsoon Simulations to Physical Parameters for the Perturbed Parameter Ensemble of HadGEM3‐GC3.05 Open
The simulation skill of the perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of HadGEM3‐GC3.05 on the mean climate pattern of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is evaluated in this study. The sensitivities of the model bias to the perturbed parameters are …
View article: Trends in the atmospheric jet streams are emerging in observations and could be linked to tropical warming
Trends in the atmospheric jet streams are emerging in observations and could be linked to tropical warming Open
Climate models predict a weak poleward shift of the jets in response to continuing climate change. Here we revisit observed jet trends using 40 years of satellite-era reanalysis products and find evidence that general poleward shifts are e…
View article: Comment on egusphere-2023-77
Comment on egusphere-2023-77 Open
Abstract. Aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty affects estimates of climate sensitivity and limits model skill at making climate projections. Efforts to improve the representations of physical processes in climate models,…
View article: Why is there a systematic bias in the Asian Monsoon in the Met Office Unified Model?
Why is there a systematic bias in the Asian Monsoon in the Met Office Unified Model? Open
Many global-climate models have substantial biases in their predictions of the Asian monsoon. For example, the Met Office Unified Model predicts a monsoon trough that is too zonal and therefore underestimates summer rainfall over sou…
View article: Supplementary material to "Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing"
Supplementary material to "Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing" Open
View article: Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing Open
Aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty affects estimates of climate sensitivity and limits model skill at making climate projections. Efforts to improve the representations of physical processes in climate models, including extensive compar…
View article: Supplementary material to "Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing"
Supplementary material to "Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing" Open
View article: Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing
Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing Open
Aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty affects estimates of climate sensitivity and limits model skill at making climate projections. Efforts to improve the representations of physical processes in climate models, including extensive compar…
View article: Evaluation and projections of the East Asian summer monsoon in a perturbed parameter ensemble
Evaluation and projections of the East Asian summer monsoon in a perturbed parameter ensemble Open
The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is a dominant driver of East Asian climate, with variations in its strength potentially impacting the livelihoods of millions of people. Understanding, predicting, and assessing uncertainties in these v…
View article: Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts
Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts Open
An observed southward shift in tropical rainfall over land between 1950 and 1985, followed by a weaker recovery post-1985, has been attributed to anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and cooling of the Northern Hemisphere relative to th…
View article: Evaluating Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing of Tropical Precipitation Shifts
Evaluating Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing of Tropical Precipitation Shifts Open
This dataset contains simplified data and code to reproduce the main figures in "Evaluating Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing of Tropical Precipitation Shifts" accepted for publication in Earth System Dynamics, 2022, same authors. A Jupyter n…
View article: Evaluating Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing of Tropical Precipitation Shifts
Evaluating Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing of Tropical Precipitation Shifts Open
This dataset contains simplified data and code to reproduce the main figures in "Evaluating Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing of Tropical Precipitation Shifts" accepted for publication in Earth System Dynamics, 2022, same authors. A Jupyter n…
View article: Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble
Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble Open
We examine past and future changes in both winter haze and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and elucidate the influence of model physical parameterizations on these future…
View article: Comment on esd-2022-11
Comment on esd-2022-11 Open
Abstract. An observed southward shift in tropical rainfall over land between 1950 and 1985, followed by a weaker recovery post-1985, has been attributed to anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and cooling of the North…
View article: Comment on esd-2022-11
Comment on esd-2022-11 Open
An observed southward shift in tropical rainfall over land between 1950 and 1985, followed by a weaker recovery post 1985, has been attributed to anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and cooling of the Northern Hemisphere relative to th…
View article: Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts
Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts Open
<p>Increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions have been attributed as the main driver of an observed southward shift in tropical precipitation between the 1950s and 1980s. In the near-term future, anthropogenic aerosol emissions will…