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View article: Quantify the Coupled GEFS Forecast Uncertainty for the Weather and Subseasonal Prediction
Quantify the Coupled GEFS Forecast Uncertainty for the Weather and Subseasonal Prediction Open
The Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12) has been implemented into National Centers For Environmental Prediction operations since September 2020, which was uncoupled, but increased the horizontal resolution from 34 to 25 km…
View article: The Development of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12
The Development of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12 Open
The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is upgraded to version 12, in which the legacy Global Spectral Model (GSM) is replaced by a model with a new dynamical core—the Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3). Extensive tests wer…
View article: GEFSv12 Reforecast Dataset for Supporting Subseasonal and Hydrometeorological Applications
GEFSv12 Reforecast Dataset for Supporting Subseasonal and Hydrometeorological Applications Open
For the newly implemented Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12), a 31-yr (1989–2019) ensemble reforecast dataset has been generated at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The reforecast system is based…
View article: Evaluation of NCEP next Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS v12)
Evaluation of NCEP next Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS v12) Open
<p>With the successful upgrade of its deterministic model GFS (v15) on June 12, 2019, NCEP has scheduled the implementation of its next Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS v12) in the summer of 2020. These two model upgrades on det…
View article: Systematic Error Analysis and Calibration of 2-m Temperature for the NCEP GEFS Reforecast of the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Project
Systematic Error Analysis and Calibration of 2-m Temperature for the NCEP GEFS Reforecast of the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Project Open
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction have generated an 18-yr (1999–2016) subseasonal (weeks 3 and 4) reforecast to support the Climate Prediction Center’s operational mission. To create this reforecast, the subseasonal experim…
View article: Toward the Improvement of Subseasonal Prediction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System
Toward the Improvement of Subseasonal Prediction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System Open
In order to provide ensemble‐based subseasonal (weeks 3 and 4) forecasts to support the operational mission of the Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, experiments have been designed through the Subseas…
View article: Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on Weeks 3 and 4 Forecast Skill in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System
Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on Weeks 3 and 4 Forecast Skill in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System Open
The Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) is being extended from 16 to 35 days to cover the subseasonal period, bridging weather and seasonal forecasts. In this study, the impact of SST forcing on the extended-range land-only global 2-…
View article: Performance of the New NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System in a Parallel Experiment
Performance of the New NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System in a Parallel Experiment Open
A new version of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS, v11) is tested and compared with the operational version (v10) in a 2-yr parallel run. The breeding-based scheme with ensemble transformation and rescaling (ETR) used in the opera…