Doug Richardson
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View article: Increasing Fire Weather Season Overlap Between North America and Australia Challenges Firefighting Cooperation
Increasing Fire Weather Season Overlap Between North America and Australia Challenges Firefighting Cooperation Open
The USA, Canada and Australia are members of an international partnership that shares firefighting resources, including equipment and personnel. This partnership is effective because fire risk between Australia and North America is histori…
View article: Predicting Australian energy demand variability using weather data and machine learning
Predicting Australian energy demand variability using weather data and machine learning Open
Managing energy systems requires understanding the variability of energy demand, which on daily timescales is driven primarily by the weather. Historical records of demand typically cover 1–2 decades which may be too short to capture the r…
View article: How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability?
How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability? Open
Large-scale modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole, show significant regional correlations with seasonal weather conditions, and are routinely forecast by…
View article: How well do climate modes explain precipitationvariability?
How well do climate modes explain precipitationvariability? Open
Large-scale modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole, show significant regional correlations with seasonal weather conditions, and are routinely forecast by…
View article: On the archetypal `flavours', indices and teleconnections of ENSO revealed by global sea surface temperatures
On the archetypal `flavours', indices and teleconnections of ENSO revealed by global sea surface temperatures Open
El Niño-Southern Oscillation global (ENSO) imprint on sea surface temperature comes in many guises. To identify its tropical fingerprints and impacts on the rest of the climate system, we propose a global approach based on archetypal analy…
View article: The risk to global coffee supply from synchronous climate hazards
The risk to global coffee supply from synchronous climate hazards Open
Global coffee production is at risk from synchronous crop failures, characterised by widespread reductions in yield occurring in multiple regions at the same time. For other crops, we know that these synchronous failures can be forced by s…
View article: Overlapping US-Australia fire seasons reduce the window of opportunity for firefighting cooperation
Overlapping US-Australia fire seasons reduce the window of opportunity for firefighting cooperation Open
Wildfires are a growing global challenge. In addition to becoming more widespread and intense due to climate change, the fire seasons in many regions are becoming longer. The lengthening of fire seasons reduces the window of opportunity fo…
View article: Climate influence on compound solar and wind droughts in Australia
Climate influence on compound solar and wind droughts in Australia Open
Solar photovoltaic and wind power are central to Australia’s renewable energy future, implying an energy sector vulnerable to weather and climate variability. Alignment of weather systems and the influence of large-scale climate modes of v…
View article: Climate modes and synoptic patterns associated with widespread wind and solar lows in Australia
Climate modes and synoptic patterns associated with widespread wind and solar lows in Australia Open
Australia has significant potential for solar and wind energy generation. The size of the country, including its latitudinal extent, means its resource potential varies dramatically both in space and throughout the year. In the northern tr…
View article: Climate controls on compound solar and wind droughts in Australia
Climate controls on compound solar and wind droughts in Australia Open
Solar and wind power are central to Australia’s renewable energy future, which implies an energy sector vulnerable to weather and climate variability. Alignment of weather systems and the influence of large-scale climate modes of variabili…
View article: A large ensemble illustration of how record-shattering heat records can endure
A large ensemble illustration of how record-shattering heat records can endure Open
The record-shattering hot day in the Pacific Northwest in June 2021 is used to motivate a study of record-shattering temperature extremes in a very large hindcast ensemble. The hottest days in the Pacific Northwest in the large ensemble ha…
View article: Synchronous climate hazards pose an increasing challenge to global coffee production
Synchronous climate hazards pose an increasing challenge to global coffee production Open
Global coffee production is at risk from synchronous crop failures, characterised by widespread concurrent reductions in yield occurring in multiple countries at the same time. For other crops, previous studies have shown that synchronous …
View article: Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections
Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections Open
With increased interest in climate forecasts and projections, it is important to understand more about their sources and levels of skill. A starting point here is to describe the nature of the skill associated with forecasts and projection…
View article: Reconstructing seasonal fire danger in southeastern Australia using tree rings
Reconstructing seasonal fire danger in southeastern Australia using tree rings Open
Climate projections indicate that dangerous fire weather will become more common over the coming century. We examine the potential of a network of temperature- and moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites in southeastern Australia to reconstruct…
View article: Global increase in wildfire potential from compound fire weather and drought
Global increase in wildfire potential from compound fire weather and drought Open
Wildfire can cause significant adverse impacts to society and the environment. Weather and climate play an important role in modulating wildfire activity. We explore the joint occurrence of global fire weather and meteorological drought us…
View article: Likelihood of unprecedented drought and fire weather during Australia’s 2019 megafires
Likelihood of unprecedented drought and fire weather during Australia’s 2019 megafires Open
View article: Increased extreme fire weather occurrence in southeast Australia and related atmospheric drivers
Increased extreme fire weather occurrence in southeast Australia and related atmospheric drivers Open
View article: Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading Open
View article: CAFE60v1: A 60-year large ensemble climate reanalysis. Part II: Evaluation
CAFE60v1: A 60-year large ensemble climate reanalysis. Part II: Evaluation Open
The CSIRO Climate retrospective Analysis and Forecast Ensemble system: version 1 (CAFE60v1) provides a large (96 member) ensemble retrospective analysis of the global climate system from 1960 to present with sufficiently many realizations …
View article: Australian Northwest Cloudbands and Their Relationship to Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation
Australian Northwest Cloudbands and Their Relationship to Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation Open
Large-scale cloud features referred to as cloudbands are known to be related to widespread and heavy rain via the transport of tropical heat and moisture to higher latitudes. The Australian northwest cloudband is such a feature that has be…
View article: Identifying Periods of Forecast Model Confidence for Improved Subseasonal Prediction of Precipitation
Identifying Periods of Forecast Model Confidence for Improved Subseasonal Prediction of Precipitation Open
Subseasonal forecast skill is not homogeneous in time, and prior assessment of the likely forecast skill would be valuable for end-users. We propose a method for identifying periods of high forecast confidence using atmospheric circulation…
View article: Linking weather patterns to regional extreme precipitation for highlighting potential flood events in medium‐ to long‐range forecasts
Linking weather patterns to regional extreme precipitation for highlighting potential flood events in medium‐ to long‐range forecasts Open
Medium‐ to long‐range precipitation forecasts are a crucial component in mitigating the impacts of fluvial flood events. Although precipitation is difficult to predict at these lead times, the forecast skill of atmospheric circulation tend…
View article: Identifying periods of forecast model confidence for improved subseasonal prediction of precipitation in southern Australia
Identifying periods of forecast model confidence for improved subseasonal prediction of precipitation in southern Australia Open
<p>Subseasonal prediction skill of precipitation is typically low. Sometimes, however, forecasts are accurate and it would be useful to end-users to assess <em>a priori</em> if this might be the case. We use a 20-year hin…
View article: Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach
Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach Open
Dynamical model skill in forecasting extratropical precipitation is limited beyond the medium-range (around 15 d), but such models are often more skilful at predicting atmospheric variables. We explore the potential benefits of using weath…
View article: A 1-Day Extreme Rainfall Event in Tasmania: Process Evaluation and Long Tail Attribution
A 1-Day Extreme Rainfall Event in Tasmania: Process Evaluation and Long Tail Attribution Open
Attribution of an extreme magnitude 1-day rainfall event in Hobart is inhibited by small sample size. For moderate magnitude Hobart daily rainfall extremes, models suggest that the associated extratropical lows will deliver more rainfall w…
View article: Authors' response to RC1
Authors' response to RC1 Open
Response to RC1Review of the study "Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach" by Richardson et al.This study aims at analysing the predictability of meteorological droughts over UK and the…
View article: Authors' response to RC2
Authors' response to RC2 Open
I read your work integrating weather patterns in the
View article: Supplementary material to "Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach"
Supplementary material to "Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach" Open
Information 1 Markov model for weather pattern (WP) predictionLet () = represent a particular WP, with = 1, … ,30, on day .We construct a first-order, nonhomogeneous Markov chain to predict WPs using the following procedure:
View article: Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach
Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach Open
Dynamical model skill in forecasting extratropical precipitation is limited beyond the medium-range (around 15 days), but such models are often more skilful at predicting atmospheric variables. We explore the potential benefits of using we…
View article: A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns
A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns Open
Weather‐pattern, or weather‐type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad‐scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and m…