Paul Goodwin
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View article: Forecast value added in demand planning
Forecast value added in demand planning Open
‘Forecast value added’ (FVA) is a term commonly used to measure the improved accuracy achieved by judgmentally modifying a set of forecasts produced by statistical methods or algorithms. Assessing the factors that prompt such adjustments, …
View article: Business forecasting methods: Impressive advances, lagging implementation
Business forecasting methods: Impressive advances, lagging implementation Open
Reliable forecasts are key to decisions in areas ranging from supply chain management to capacity planning in service industries. It is encouraging then that recent decades have seen dramatic advances in forecasting methods which have the …
View article: The Changing Same? British Black Artists and Visual Arts Organisations in the Midlands
The Changing Same? British Black Artists and Visual Arts Organisations in the Midlands Open
The Role of Visual Arts Organisations in the British Black Arts Movement in the Midlands’ is a research network funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC). Co-led by Carolina Rito (Coventry University) and Paul Goodwin (Univ…
View article: Assessing Point Forecast Bias Across Multiple Time Series: Measures and Visual Tools
Assessing Point Forecast Bias Across Multiple Time Series: Measures and Visual Tools Open
Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under represented in the literature: …
View article: Assessing Point Forecast Bias Across Multiple Time Series: Measures and Visual Tools
Assessing Point Forecast Bias Across Multiple Time Series: Measures and Visual Tools Open
Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under-represented in the literature: …
View article: Assessing Point Forecast Bias Across Multiple Time Series: Measures and Visual Tools
Assessing Point Forecast Bias Across Multiple Time Series: Measures and Visual Tools Open
Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under-represented in the literature: …
View article: Judgmental adjustments and scenario use: Individual versus group forecasts
Judgmental adjustments and scenario use: Individual versus group forecasts Open
Judgmental adjustments to model forecasts are common in organizations. Given that such adjustments may not always enhance forecast accuracy, it is essential to provide support tools to improve communication and information sharing between …
View article: The effects of scenarios on judgmental demand forecasts and the subsequent production decisions
The effects of scenarios on judgmental demand forecasts and the subsequent production decisions Open
In production planning and inventory management activities, demand forecasts play a crucial role by shaping the decisions of how many to produce from different products subject to a fixed total capacity restriction. Such demand predictions…
View article: Supporting multiattribute decisions in scenario planning using a simple method based on ranks
Supporting multiattribute decisions in scenario planning using a simple method based on ranks Open
A neglected area of scenario planning is the provision of support for strategic decisions that involve multiple attributes. When the number of scenarios and attributes is large, conventional multiattribute decision analysis methods require…
View article: Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios
Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios Open
Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have als…
View article: Can loss aversion be applied to health situations
Can loss aversion be applied to health situations Open
Purpose: Musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions are a major source of long-term pain, psychological distress, disability and productivity loss. Physiotherapy is the mainstream management strategy for MSK conditions. The outcome of physiotherapy …
View article: Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge
Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge Open
There are several biases and inefficiencies that are commonly associated with the judgmental extrapolation of time series, even when the forecasters have technical knowledge about forecasting. This study examines the effectiveness of using…