Enrique Martínez‐García
YOU?
Author Swipe
View article: A history of U.S. tariffs: Quantifying strategic trade‑offs in tariff policy design
A history of U.S. tariffs: Quantifying strategic trade‑offs in tariff policy design Open
View article: Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis Open
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility.Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesia…
View article: Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis Open
View article: Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model DO? Supplementary Materials
Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model DO? Supplementary Materials Open
This Online Appendix reports detailed results on the inflation forecasting horserace conducted by Duncan and Martínez-García (2022).The tables of results found here complement the evidence and are explained/contextualized in that paper.The…
View article: Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model DO?
Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model DO? Open
This paper evaluates the forecasting ability when inflation is viewed as an inherently global phenomenon through the lens of the workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model.The NOEM model emphasizes the importance of cross-country spillo…
View article: Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study
Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study Open
This paper proposes new measures of the effectiveness of inflation targeting (IT) and evaluates its main drivers in a (large) sample of advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).Using synthetic control m…
View article: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing? Open
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, we document that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT …
View article: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing? Open
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve's 2019 -20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020.Using synthetic control methods, we document that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT …
View article: Floral remains from the highest Valdeón formation, a marine stephanian unit south of the Picos de Europa, and comparisons with eastern Asturias, NW Spain
Floral remains from the highest Valdeón formation, a marine stephanian unit south of the Picos de Europa, and comparisons with eastern Asturias, NW Spain Open
A critical analysis is presented of the available data on the Valdeón Formation, a Stephanian unit southwest of the Picos de Europa, in northern Leon. It lies unconformably on Devonian and lower Carboniferous (Mississippian) strata of the …
View article: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing? Open
View article: <b>exuber</b>: Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing with <i>R</i>
<b>exuber</b>: Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing with <i>R</i> Open
This paper introduces the R package exuber for testing and date-stamping periods of mildly explosive dynamics (exuberance) in time series. The package computes test statistics for the supremum augmented Dickey-Fuller test (SADF) of Phillip…
View article: Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound
Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound Open
We propose a recursive VAR model augmented with survey-based measures of future interest rates to identify the effects of forward guidance on the U.S. economy.Our results show that when interest rates are away from the zero lower bound (ZL…
View article: Supplementary Appendix: Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound
Supplementary Appendix: Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound Open
View article: Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound Open
We propose a TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility for the unemployment rate, core inflation and the federal funds rate augmented with survey-based interest rate expectations and uncertainty and a FAVAR with a wider set of observable variable…
View article: exuber: Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing with R
exuber: Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing with R Open
This paper introduces the R package exuber for testing and date-stamping periods of mildly explosive dynamics (exuberance) in time series.The package computes test statistics for the supremum ADF test (SADF) of Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011),…
View article: The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model
The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model Open
This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility.We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting survey data on inte…
View article: Ties that Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies
Ties that Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies Open
This paper estimates the natural rate of interest for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques.Our empirical analysis estab…
View article: Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest Open
I investigate the downward drift of U.S. interest rates from 1984:Q1 to 2019:Q4.For this, I bring the workhorse two-country New Keynesian model to data on the U.S. and an aggregate of its major trading partners using Bayesian techniques.I …
View article: In No Uncertain Terms: The Effect of Uncertainty on Credit Frictions and Monetary Policy
In No Uncertain Terms: The Effect of Uncertainty on Credit Frictions and Monetary Policy Open
We examine the interaction of uncertainty and credit frictions in a New Keynesian framework.The model considers credit frictions arising from costly-state verification in the provision of loans to fund the acquisition of capital by entrepr…
View article: Online Appendix–Get the Lowdown: Building a Structural Open-Economy Model of the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Online Appendix–Get the Lowdown: Building a Structural Open-Economy Model of the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest Open
In this paper, I describe the building blocks of the workhorse model used in Martínez-García (2020b).This is a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with complete asset markets and nominal rigidities subject to co…
View article: Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound Open
View article: Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis Open
We review the macroeconomic performance during the Global Financial Crisis and subsequent economic expansion, as well as the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.We characterize the use of forward guidance and ba…
View article: Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest Open
Much consideration has been given among scholars and policymakers to the decline in the U.S. natural rate of interest since the 2007 -09 global financial crisis.In this paper, I investigate its determinants and drivers through the lens of …
View article: Online Appendix–Get the Lowdown: Building a Structural Open-Economy Model of the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Online Appendix–Get the Lowdown: Building a Structural Open-Economy Model of the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest Open
This note describes the building blocks of the workhorse two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with complete asset markets and nominal rigidities subject to country-specific productivity, cost-push, and monetary p…
View article: Speaking of Trade: Language Barriers and Multilingualism
Speaking of Trade: Language Barriers and Multilingualism Open
There is growing recognition that language affects bilateral trade through multiple channels, as most gravity trade models include a language variable. Previously, the focus has been on common (official or spoken) native language or more g…
View article: A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints
A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints Open
We study a generalized version of Coleman (1990)’s time iteration method (GTI) for solving dynamic optimization problems. Our benchmark framework is an irreversible investment model with labor-leisure choice. The GTI algorithm is simple to…
View article: Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis Open
We review the macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after …
View article: Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis Open
We review macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the…
View article: A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints
A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints Open
We study a generalized version of Coleman (1990)'s time iteration method (GTI) for solving dynamic optimization problems.Our benchmark framework is an irreversible investment model with labor-leisure choice.The GTI algorithm is simple to i…
View article: Online Appendix: Mind the Gap!—A Monetarist View of the Open-Economy Phillips Curve
Online Appendix: Mind the Gap!—A Monetarist View of the Open-Economy Phillips Curve Open
In many countries, inflation has become less responsive to domestic factors and more responsive to global factors over the past several decades.We study the linkages between domestic inflation and global liquidity (money and household bala…