Eric J. Alfaro
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View article: Climate factors related to the dengue incidence in Costa Rica and future projections under scenario SSP5-8.5.
Climate factors related to the dengue incidence in Costa Rica and future projections under scenario SSP5-8.5. Open
This article has three objectives: 1) modeling the climate-dengue relationship at the smallest administrative division (districts) using high-resolution data; 2) use of an objective algorithm for the selection of predictors that results in…
View article: Systematic Biases in Tropical Drought Monitoring: Rethinking SPI Application in Mesoamerica’s Humid Regions
Systematic Biases in Tropical Drought Monitoring: Rethinking SPI Application in Mesoamerica’s Humid Regions Open
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is widely used to determine drought severity worldwide. However, inconsistencies exist regarding its application in warm, humid tropical climatic zones. Originally developed for temperate regions …
View article: How rare was the 2016–2022 tropical cyclone activity near the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica?
How rare was the 2016–2022 tropical cyclone activity near the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica? Open
View article: Detection and attribution of trends of meteorological extremes in Central America
Detection and attribution of trends of meteorological extremes in Central America Open
We present an analysis to determine whether historical trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices, as well as in yearly averages of several climate variables. To achieve this, we use three methodologies: a) a climate model-bas…
View article: Caracterización climática de la lluvia del Pacífico Norte de Costa Rica usando análogos construidos
Caracterización climática de la lluvia del Pacífico Norte de Costa Rica usando análogos construidos Open
Se determina el inicio y término de la estación lluviosa (IELL y TELL respectivamente), además de la duración de la estación seca y lluviosa (DES y DELL respectivamente), con datos de precipitación en rejilla sobre Guanacaste para el perio…
View article: Assessing the impact of tropical cyclones on economic sectors in Costa Rica, Central America
Assessing the impact of tropical cyclones on economic sectors in Costa Rica, Central America Open
Tropical cyclones (TC) pose a persistent natural hazard to Costa Rica. Exposure to natural hazards, such as mass movements and floods, is compounded by a growing urban population and inadequate land use planning. This study conducted a com…
View article: Introduction
Introduction Open
—J. Blunden and T. Boyer In 2023, La Niña conditions that generally prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean from mid-2020 into early 2023 gave way to a strong El Niño by October. Atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases—…
View article: Central American climate extreme trends: A statistical analysis of <scp>CLIMDEX</scp> indices
Central American climate extreme trends: A statistical analysis of <span>CLIMDEX</span> indices Open
Precipitation and temperature extremes from daily data indexed using the CLIMDEX methodology were calculated over the Central American region. The data comprises the coarsened versions of the Climate Hazards and Infrared Precipitation with…
View article: Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region
Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region Open
The limited success of international efforts to reduce global warming at levels established in the Paris Agreement, and the increasing frequency and strength of climate impacts, highlight the urgent need of adaptation, particularly in deve…
View article: Weather types for the seasonal transitions in Central America
Weather types for the seasonal transitions in Central America Open
Unsupervised learning techniques are employed to study the relationship between atmospheric circulation and precipitation over Central America and its surrounding areas. Specifically, the clustering algorithm k-means++ is applied to three …
View article: An observational analysis of the eastern tropical Pacific Shallow Meridional Circulation using YOTC data and pilot balloons from Isla del Coco, Costa Rica
An observational analysis of the eastern tropical Pacific Shallow Meridional Circulation using YOTC data and pilot balloons from Isla del Coco, Costa Rica Open
The low-level circulation of the atmosphere over Isla del Coco has been studied and the presence of a northerly wind at low levels of the atmosphere in the eastern tropical Pacific, in addition to the deep Hadley circulation cell, has been …
View article: Flood projections for selected Costa Rican main basins using CMIP6 climate models downscaled output in the HBV hydrological model for scenario SSP5-8.5
Flood projections for selected Costa Rican main basins using CMIP6 climate models downscaled output in the HBV hydrological model for scenario SSP5-8.5 Open
Estimates from 3 statistically downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) from version 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, namely the EC Earth3, GFDL ESM4 and MPI ESM1 2 HR are used in the HBV hydrological model to estimate d…
View article: Metodología para el fortalecimiento de la resiliencia multisectorial a la variabilidad climática en el cantón fronterizo La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica
Metodología para el fortalecimiento de la resiliencia multisectorial a la variabilidad climática en el cantón fronterizo La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica Open
Las zonas transfronterizas poseen un contexto muy particular que influye en los alcances del desarrollo rural de América Central. Por un lado, se cuenta progresivamente con más información sobre la influencia de aspectos biofísicos y climá…
View article: Central America urgently needs to reduce the growing adaptation gap to climate change
Central America urgently needs to reduce the growing adaptation gap to climate change Open
Central America is highly impacted by current extreme events associated with climate variability and the adverse effects of climate change, showing high vulnerability compounded by its historical context and socioeconomic structure. In lig…
View article: Variabilidade climática da precipitação no estado do Ceará, Nordeste do Brasil
Variabilidade climática da precipitação no estado do Ceará, Nordeste do Brasil Open
O estado do Ceará é uma região semiárida localizada na região Nordeste do Brasil, caracterizada por uma estação chuvosa irregular, grande variabilidade climática impulsionada principalmente pelo fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS), Tempe…
View article: Caracterización climática y análisis de mecanismos moduladores del descenso de las lluvias en la vertiente Caribe de América Central durante septiembre-octubre
Caracterización climática y análisis de mecanismos moduladores del descenso de las lluvias en la vertiente Caribe de América Central durante septiembre-octubre Open
[Introduction]: The Caribbean slope of Central America is located windward of the trade winds associated with the North Atlantic Subtropical High. The region exhibits rainfall bimodal annual patterns, with a relative minimum occurring in S…
View article: Caracterización climática y análisis de mecanismos moduladores del descenso de las lluvias en la vertiente Caribe de América Central durante septiembre-octubre
Caracterización climática y análisis de mecanismos moduladores del descenso de las lluvias en la vertiente Caribe de América Central durante septiembre-octubre Open
[Introducción]: La vertiente Caribe de América Central se encuentra a barlovento de los vientos alisios asociados con la Alta Subtropical del Atlántico Norte y presenta un ciclo anual de precipitación bimodal, donde se observa un mínimo re…
View article: Regional Climates
Regional Climates Open
© 2023 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). Corresponding authors: North America: Ahira Sá…
View article: Introduction
Introduction Open
—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in…
View article: Comparison of indicators to evaluate the performance of climate models
Comparison of indicators to evaluate the performance of climate models Open
The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly…
View article: Spatio‐temporal downscaling emulator for regional climate models
Spatio‐temporal downscaling emulator for regional climate models Open
Regional climate models (RCM) describe the mesoscale global atmospheric and oceanic dynamics and serve as dynamical downscaling models. In other words, RCMs use atmospheric and oceanic climate output from general circulation models (GCM) t…
View article: Assessment of the Spatial Variation in the Occurrence and Intensity of Major Hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere
Assessment of the Spatial Variation in the Occurrence and Intensity of Major Hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere Open
Major hurricanes are a critical hazard for North and Central America. The present study investigated the trends of occurrence, affectation, and intensity of major hurricanes in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Oceans using GIS appl…
View article: Comparación de métodos de detección del inicio y término de la estación lluviosa basado en datos de precipitación
Comparación de métodos de detección del inicio y término de la estación lluviosa basado en datos de precipitación Open
Diferentes metodologías han sido propuestas para la detección del inicio y término de la estación lluviosa que incluyen el área de América Central. Índices de temperatura superficial del mar, descomposición de valores singulares, mínimos c…
View article: Atmospheric circulation types controlling rainfall in the Central American Isthmus
Atmospheric circulation types controlling rainfall in the Central American Isthmus Open
Rainfall mechanisms in the Central American Isthmus are controlled by complex physical interactions across spatial and temporal scales, which are reflected on the dynamics of atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the region. However, …
View article: Probability of induced extreme precipitation events in Central America due to tropical cyclone positions in the surrounding oceans
Probability of induced extreme precipitation events in Central America due to tropical cyclone positions in the surrounding oceans Open
The preparedness of national and local authorities for extreme hydrometeorological events could alleviate the impacts in many socioeconomical sectors. A statistical tool for the prediction or assessment of extreme precipitation probabiliti…
View article: EL MEGA-NIÑO DE 1925-1926 Y SUS REPERCUSIONES EN LA SOCIEDAD COSTARRICENSE
EL MEGA-NIÑO DE 1925-1926 Y SUS REPERCUSIONES EN LA SOCIEDAD COSTARRICENSE Open
The objective of this article is to characterize the extreme event of the coastal Mega-Niño of 1925-1926 in Southern Central America from a series of geophysical anomalies calculated from meteorological records of stations located in Costa…
View article: Respuestas del mesozooplancton a condiciones oceanográficas en diferentes escalas en Bahía Salinas, Pacífico Norte de Costa Rica, durante 2011-2013
Respuestas del mesozooplancton a condiciones oceanográficas en diferentes escalas en Bahía Salinas, Pacífico Norte de Costa Rica, durante 2011-2013 Open
Introducción: El Pacífico Norte de Costa Rica se caracteriza por presentar una variación de la temperatura subsuperficial del mar (TSSM) modulada por vientos superficiales de componente este, con variaciones estacionales e intra-estacional…
View article: Spatial and temporal dynamics of the hydrology at Salinas Bay, Costa Rica, Eastern Tropical Pacific
Spatial and temporal dynamics of the hydrology at Salinas Bay, Costa Rica, Eastern Tropical Pacific Open
Introduction: Salinas Bay is located in the warm pool of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), characterized by warm, shallow surface waters, a strong and shallow thermocline, and an important biological diversity. The primary productivity o…
View article: Cambios climáticos proyectados de modelos CMIP5 en La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica
Cambios climáticos proyectados de modelos CMIP5 en La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica Open
Introducción: La Cruz está localizada en el noroeste de Costa Rica, y está caracterizada por una estación seca bien definida y un clima tropical seco. Este cantón en los últimos 45 años ha reportado impactos de eventos hidrometeorológicos,…
View article: Análisis de eventos fríos y cálidos por medio de datos de buceo: un enfoque de ciencia ciudadana en el Golfo de Papagayo, Costa Rica
Análisis de eventos fríos y cálidos por medio de datos de buceo: un enfoque de ciencia ciudadana en el Golfo de Papagayo, Costa Rica Open
Introducción: en el año 2011 y como una iniciativa de Ciencia Ciudadana, los propietarios de la tienda Deep Blue Diving Shop en Playa del Coco, Guanacaste, Costa Rica, iniciaron a recolectar diariamente los datos de temperatura en la colum…