Richard E. Lucas
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View article: The Cross-Lagged Panel Model Almost Always Provides Evidence for Causal Effects
The Cross-Lagged Panel Model Almost Always Provides Evidence for Causal Effects Open
The cross-lagged panel model is a widely used tool for testing causal effects in longitudinal data. Critiques of this model have focused on the fact that it fails to account for unobserved confounders, which can lead to spurious evidence f…
View article: Typical Patterns of Stability in Longitudinal Data: Implications for Model Choice
Typical Patterns of Stability in Longitudinal Data: Implications for Model Choice Open
Many different models exist for examining causal effects in panel data through cross-lagged associations. Choosing among these models depends in part on assumptions about patterns of stability in the variables being examined. In this paper…
View article: Peer Community in Psychology: A platform for peer review of preprints across psychology
Peer Community in Psychology: A platform for peer review of preprints across psychology Open
The current scientific publishing landscape consists of a small number of for-profit publishers who rely on the free or underpaid labor of researchers, as well as researchers who endorse and perpetuate the system in the name of prestige. T…
View article: Peer Community in Psychology: A platform for peer review of preprints across psychology
Peer Community in Psychology: A platform for peer review of preprints across psychology Open
The current scientific publishing landscape consists of a small number of for-profit publishers who rely on the free or underpaid labor of researchers, as well as researchers who endorse and perpetuate the system in the name of prestige. T…
View article: Climate-driven mangrove dieback and recovery: a case study in Albert and Leichhardt Rivers, Australia
Climate-driven mangrove dieback and recovery: a case study in Albert and Leichhardt Rivers, Australia Open
A severe dieback event occurred in 2015/2016 in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia, which was later attributed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and unusually low sea levels associated with the lunar nodal cycle. However, the…
View article: Characterising the short- and long-term impacts of tropical cyclones on mangroves using the Landsat archive
Characterising the short- and long-term impacts of tropical cyclones on mangroves using the Landsat archive Open
Tropical cyclones can significantly impact mangrove forests, with some recovering rapidly, whilst others may change permanently. Inconsistent approaches to quantifying these impacts limit the capacity to identify patterns of damage and rec…
View article: On the robustness of reciprocal associations between personality and religiosity in a German sample
On the robustness of reciprocal associations between personality and religiosity in a German sample Open
Objective Entringer et al. used longitudinal data from a German panel study to examine reciprocal causal effects between personality and religiosity, along with cultural moderators of these effects. The current paper examines the robustnes…
View article: Detecting Spurious Effects in Cross-Lagged Panel Models: Triangulation is Not a Valid Test
Detecting Spurious Effects in Cross-Lagged Panel Models: Triangulation is Not a Valid Test Open
The cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) is an analytic technique used to examine the reciprocal causal effects of two or more variables assessed on two or more occasions. Although widely used, the CLPM has been criticized for relying on implau…
View article: Life events and life satisfaction: Estimating effects of multiple life events in combined models
Life events and life satisfaction: Estimating effects of multiple life events in combined models Open
How do life events affect life satisfaction? Previous studies focused on a single event or separate analyses of several events. However, life events are often grouped non-randomly over the lifespan, occur in close succession, and are causa…
View article: Assessing Validity and Bias of Within-Person Variability in Affect and Personality
Assessing Validity and Bias of Within-Person Variability in Affect and Personality Open
Within-person variability in affect (e.g., Neuroticism) and personality have been linked to well-being. These are measured either by asking people to report how variable they are or to give multiple reports on the construct and calculating…
View article: Does Perceived Similarity Between Present and Future Self Predict Well-Being? A Re-Analysis and Replication of Reiff et al. (2020).
Does Perceived Similarity Between Present and Future Self Predict Well-Being? A Re-Analysis and Replication of Reiff et al. (2020). Open
Similarity to one’s future self has been associated with positive behavior and higher well-being in past literature. Reiff and colleagues (2019) found that perceived similarity between one’s present and future self is positively associated…
View article: Life events and life satisfaction: Estimating effects of multiple life events in combined models
Life events and life satisfaction: Estimating effects of multiple life events in combined models Open
How do life events affect life satisfaction? Previous studies focused on a single event or separate analyses of several events. However, life events are often grouped non-randomly over the lifespan, occur in close succession, and are causa…
View article: On the Robustness of Reciprocal Associations Between Personality and Religiosity in a German Sample
On the Robustness of Reciprocal Associations Between Personality and Religiosity in a German Sample Open
Objective: Entringer, Gebauer, and Kroeger (2023) used longitudinal data from a German panel study to examine reciprocal causal effects between personality and religiosity, along with cultural moderators of these effects. The current paper…
View article: Mapping groundcover of clover species in hill pastures in Wairarapa
Mapping groundcover of clover species in hill pastures in Wairarapa Open
Tokaroa Farm (608 ha) with sheep and beef in the Wairarapa has predominantly sunny, north-facing slopes. Average annual rainfall is 810 mm with three months summer-dry. High quality pasture is needed in late winter/early spring for lactati…
View article: Assessing validity and bias of within-person variability in affect and personality
Assessing validity and bias of within-person variability in affect and personality Open
Within-person variability in affect and personality have both been linked to well-being. Variability in negative affect is considered a particularly important individual difference, given that it is a core component of Neuroticism from the…
View article: Characterising the impact of tropical cyclones on mangroves using a multi-decadal Landsat archive
Characterising the impact of tropical cyclones on mangroves using a multi-decadal Landsat archive Open
Tropical cyclones exert a strong driving force for change in mangrove systems. The potential increase in cyclone intensity globally is concerning as this may lead to significant changes in species composition, forest complexity and loss of…
View article: Why the Cross-Lagged Panel Model Is Almost Never the Right Choice
Why the Cross-Lagged Panel Model Is Almost Never the Right Choice Open
The cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) is a widely used technique for examining reciprocal causal effects using longitudinal data. Critics of the CLPM have noted that by failing to account for certain person-level associations, estimates of t…
View article: Trajectories of adolescent life satisfaction
Trajectories of adolescent life satisfaction Open
Increasing global policy interest in measuring and improving population wellbeing has prompted academic investigations into the dynamics of lifespan life satisfaction. Yet little research has assessed the complete adolescent age range, alt…
View article: Why the Cross-Lagged Panel Model is Almost Never the Right Choice
Why the Cross-Lagged Panel Model is Almost Never the Right Choice Open
The cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) is a widely used technique for examining reciprocal causal effects using longitudinal data. Critics of the CLPM have noted that by failing to account for certain person-level associations, estimates of t…
View article: Experienced Well-Being and Labor Market Status: The Role of Pleasure and Meaning
Experienced Well-Being and Labor Market Status: The Role of Pleasure and Meaning Open
This paper examines the experienced well-being of employed and unemployed workers. We use the survey-adapted Day Reconstruction Method of the Innovation Sample of the German Socio-Economic Panel Study to analyze the role of the employment …
View article: Editorial.
Editorial. Open
In this brief article, the new editor-in-chief of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (JPSP): Personality Processes and Individual Differences (PPID) states that he looks forward to building on the success of his predecessor i…
View article: Perception of Major Life Events and Personality Trait Change
Perception of Major Life Events and Personality Trait Change Open
Major life events can trigger personality trait change. However, a clear, replicable pattern of event-related personality trait change has yet to be identified. We examined whether the perception of major life events is associated with per…
View article: Why has personality psychology played an outsized role in the credibility revolution?
Why has personality psychology played an outsized role in the credibility revolution? Open
Personality is not the most popular subfield of psychology. But, in one way or another, personality psychologists have played an outsized role in the ongoing “credibility revolution” in psychology. Not only have individual personality psyc…
View article: Characterizing Geographic Variation in Well-Being Using Tweets
Characterizing Geographic Variation in Well-Being Using Tweets Open
The language used in tweets from 1,300 different US counties was found to be predictive of the subjective well-being of people living in those counties as measured by representative surveys. Topics, sets of co-occurring words derived from …
View article: Why Has Personality Psychology Played an Outsized Role in the Credibility Revolution?
Why Has Personality Psychology Played an Outsized Role in the Credibility Revolution? Open
Personality is not the most popular subfield of psychology. But, in one way or another, personality psychologists have played an outsized role in the ongoing “credibility revolution” in psychology. Not only have individual personality psyc…
View article: Personality trait stability and change
Personality trait stability and change Open
Personality traits continue to change throughout the lifespan. However, we still know little about when, why, and how personality traits change. In this paper, we review the current state of scientific evidence regarding the nature, source…
View article: Comparing global reports of subjective well-being to experiential measures
Comparing global reports of subjective well-being to experiential measures Open
Subjective well-being (SWB) is an overall evaluation of the quality of a person’slife from his or her own perspective. One common method of assessing thisconstruct requires respondents to think about their life as a whole and to providea “…