Collin Payne
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View article: Healthy longevity in the Asia–Pacific: a cross-national population-based modeling study
Healthy longevity in the Asia–Pacific: a cross-national population-based modeling study Open
Population aging in the Asia–Pacific will not proceed along the paths already followed by more developed countries, but differences in later-life health across the Asia–Pacific region are poorly understood. Using data from five harmonized …
View article: The role of education composition in shaping the burden of obesity and diabetes in Indonesia: a microsimulation-based projection study
The role of education composition in shaping the burden of obesity and diabetes in Indonesia: a microsimulation-based projection study Open
Incorporating population educational composition into projections of the burden of excess body weight and diabetes provides valuable insights into social disparities in diabetes over time. This can inform policy decisions by helping to pri…
View article: Changing educational attainment as a driver of cohort changes in healthy longevity: a decomposition analysis of US birth cohorts
Changing educational attainment as a driver of cohort changes in healthy longevity: a decomposition analysis of US birth cohorts Open
An anticipated health boost from the increasing educational attainment of the US population has not materialized, with life expectancy and healthy longevity both stagnating over the past decade. We seek to understand how changes in the lev…
View article: The relationship between lifecourse traumatic events and pain in an older rural South African population: A cross-sectional study
The relationship between lifecourse traumatic events and pain in an older rural South African population: A cross-sectional study Open
Background Pain in older adults is an increasing concern in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with literature suggesting an association with past traumatic events (TEs) in high-income settings. We aim to investigate this relationsh…
View article: Dynamics of Health Expectancy: An Introduction to the Multiple Multistate Method (MMM)
Dynamics of Health Expectancy: An Introduction to the Multiple Multistate Method (MMM) Open
Many studies have compared individual measures of health expectancy across older populations by time-invariant characteristics. However, very few have included time-varying variables when calculating health expectancy. Even among older adu…
View article: Frailty progression in adults aged 40 years and older in rural Burkina Faso: a longitudinal, population-based study
Frailty progression in adults aged 40 years and older in rural Burkina Faso: a longitudinal, population-based study Open
Alexander Von Humboldt Foundation, Institute for Global Innovation, University of Birmingham, and Wellcome Trust.
View article: National Population Growth Rate, Its Components, and Subnational Contributions: A Research Note
National Population Growth Rate, Its Components, and Subnational Contributions: A Research Note Open
A population's current growth rate is determined jointly by changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. This overall growth rate is also the average of age-specific growth rates, which can be decomposed into the result of historical ch…
View article: Renal mass imaging modalities: does body mass index (BMI) matter?
Renal mass imaging modalities: does body mass index (BMI) matter? Open
Purpose Accurate measurement of renal mass size is crucial in the management of renal cancer. With the burdensome cost of imaging yet its need for management, a better understanding of the variability among patients when determining mass s…
View article: Inequalities in Mortality in the Asia-Pacific: A Cross-National Comparison of Socioeconomic Gradients
Inequalities in Mortality in the Asia-Pacific: A Cross-National Comparison of Socioeconomic Gradients Open
Objectives Social inequalities in mortality are poorly studied in much of the Asia-Pacific. Using data from harmonized nationally representative longitudinal health and aging surveys our study systematically assesses mortality disparities …
View article: Decomposition of Differentials in Health Expectancies From Multistate Life Tables: A Research Note
Decomposition of Differentials in Health Expectancies From Multistate Life Tables: A Research Note Open
Multistate modeling is a commonly used method to compute healthy life expectancy. However, there is currently no analytical method to decompose the components of differentials in summary measures calculated from multistate models. In this …
View article: How do sex-specific BMI trajectories shape diabetes risk? A longitudinal analysis of Indonesian adults
How do sex-specific BMI trajectories shape diabetes risk? A longitudinal analysis of Indonesian adults Open
Introduction Sex is a critical predictor of body mass index (BMI) trajectory over the life span, playing a role in disparities in the risk of diabetes. While there is some evidence of the effect of BMI on the risk of diabetes, little is kn…
View article: Disability and morbidity among US birth cohorts, 1998–2018: A multidimensional test of dynamic equilibrium theory
Disability and morbidity among US birth cohorts, 1998–2018: A multidimensional test of dynamic equilibrium theory Open
View article: Decomposition of Differentials in Health Expectancies From Multistate Life Tables: A Research Note
Decomposition of Differentials in Health Expectancies From Multistate Life Tables: A Research Note Open
Multistate modeling is a commonly used method to compute healthy life expectancy. However, there is currently no analytical method to decompose the components of change in summary measures calculated from multistate models. In this paper, …
View article: Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: A prospective longitudinal analysis
Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: A prospective longitudinal analysis Open
View article: Differences in healthy longevity by HIV status and viral load among older South African adults: an observational cohort modelling study
Differences in healthy longevity by HIV status and viral load among older South African adults: an observational cohort modelling study Open
View article: Demography and COVID-19: risks, responses and impacts
Demography and COVID-19: risks, responses and impacts Open
View article: Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: a prospective longitudinal analysis
Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: a prospective longitudinal analysis Open
Objective We seek to understand the coexisting effects of population aging and a rising burden of diabetes on healthy longevity in South Africa. Research Design and Methods We used longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the “Hea…
View article: Expansion, Compression, Neither, Both? Divergent Patterns in Healthy, Disability-Free, and Morbidity-Free Life Expectancy Across U.S. Birth Cohorts, 1998–2016
Expansion, Compression, Neither, Both? Divergent Patterns in Healthy, Disability-Free, and Morbidity-Free Life Expectancy Across U.S. Birth Cohorts, 1998–2016 Open
This article explores how patterns of health, morbidity, and disability have changed across successive generations of older adults in the United States. Using a novel method for comparing state-specific partial life expectancies—that is, t…
View article: Life Course Socioeconomic Status and Healthy Longevity in China
Life Course Socioeconomic Status and Healthy Longevity in China Open
In 2020, China's population aged 60 or older exceeded 264 million, representing 25% of the global population in that age-group. Older adults in China experienced periods of dramatic political and social unrest in early life, as well as eco…
View article: Differences in healthy longevity by HIV status and viral load among older South African adults: an observational cohort modelling study
Differences in healthy longevity by HIV status and viral load among older South African adults: an observational cohort modelling study Open
BackgroundThe population of people living with HIV in South Africa is rapidly ageing. The co-incidence of demographic ageing and a high HIV burden means that understanding the combined impacts of HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) on hea…
View article: The Components of Change in Population Growth Rates
The Components of Change in Population Growth Rates Open
The demographic balance equation relates the population growth rate with crude rates of fertility, mortality, and net migration. All these rates refer to changes occurring between two time points, say, t and t + h. However, this fundamenta…
View article: Changes in Life Expectancy and Disability-Free Life Expectancy in Successive Birth Cohorts of Older Cancer Survivors: A Longitudinal Modeling Analysis of the US Health and Retirement Study
Changes in Life Expectancy and Disability-Free Life Expectancy in Successive Birth Cohorts of Older Cancer Survivors: A Longitudinal Modeling Analysis of the US Health and Retirement Study Open
The population of older cancer survivors in the United States is rapidly growing. However, little is currently known about how the health of older cancer survivors has changed over time and across successive birth cohorts. Using data from …
View article: Multimorbidity and mortality in an older, rural black South African population cohort with high prevalence of HIV findings from the HAALSI Study
Multimorbidity and mortality in an older, rural black South African population cohort with high prevalence of HIV findings from the HAALSI Study Open
Objectives Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in high-income countries. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between multimorbidity (≥2 of the following chronic medical conditions: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemi…
View article: The role of reductions in old-age mortality in old-age population growth
The role of reductions in old-age mortality in old-age population growth Open
Background: The variable-r model provides demographers with a way to explore the contributions of demographic components (fertility, mortality, migration) to changes in populations’ age structures. However, traditional variable-r methods r…
View article: Developing and evaluating a frailty index for older South Africans—findings from the HAALSI study
Developing and evaluating a frailty index for older South Africans—findings from the HAALSI study Open
Background despite rapid population ageing, few studies have investigated frailty in older people in sub-Saharan Africa. We tested a cumulative deficit frailty index in a population of older people from rural South Africa. Methods analysis…
View article: Decision letter: Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol
Decision letter: Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol Open
Article Figures and data Abstract eLife digest Introduction Materials and methods Results Discussion Appendix 1 Data availability References Decision letter Author response Article and author information Metrics Abstract Introduction: In E…
View article: Impairment in Activities of Daily Living and Unmet Need for Care Among Older Adults: A Population-Based Study From Burkina Faso
Impairment in Activities of Daily Living and Unmet Need for Care Among Older Adults: A Population-Based Study From Burkina Faso Open
Objectives The importance of impairment in performing activities of daily living (ADL) is likely to increase in sub-Saharan Africa because few care options for affected people exist. This study investigated the prevalence of ADL impairment…
View article: Depressive symptoms and cardiovascular disease: a population-based study of older adults in rural Burkina Faso
Depressive symptoms and cardiovascular disease: a population-based study of older adults in rural Burkina Faso Open
Objectives To contribute to the current understanding of depressive disorders in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries by examining the association of depressive symptoms with cardiovascular and cardiometabolic conditions in a population-bas…
View article: Cohort profile: the mature adults cohort of the Malawi longitudinal study of families and health (MLSFH-MAC)
Cohort profile: the mature adults cohort of the Malawi longitudinal study of families and health (MLSFH-MAC) Open
Purpose The Mature Adults Cohort of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH-MAC) contributes to global ageing studies by providing a rare opportunity to study the processes of individual and population ageing, the publi…
View article: Education and adult mortality in middle-income countries: Surprising gradients in six nationally-representative longitudinal surveys
Education and adult mortality in middle-income countries: Surprising gradients in six nationally-representative longitudinal surveys Open
We find that adult mortality and risk factor gradients in MICs can be much different than the established patterns seen in modern HICs. Our results highlight that adult mortality gradients are not an inevitability and are not found in all …