Fabio Caccioli
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View article: Peer influence breaks ergodicity in an opinion dynamics model with external information
Peer influence breaks ergodicity in an opinion dynamics model with external information Open
We present a stochastic imitation-based model of opinion dynamics in which agents balance social conformity with responsiveness to an external signal. The model captures how populations evolve between two binary opinion states, driven by p…
View article: Spectral coarse graining and rescaling for preserving structural and dynamical properties in graphs
Spectral coarse graining and rescaling for preserving structural and dynamical properties in graphs Open
We introduce a graph renormalization procedure based on the coarse-grained Laplacian, which generates reduced-complexity representations across scales. This method retains both dynamics and large-scale topological structures, while reducin…
View article: Mapping Microscopic and Systemic Risks in TradFi and DeFi: a literature review
Mapping Microscopic and Systemic Risks in TradFi and DeFi: a literature review Open
This work explores the formation and propagation of systemic risks across traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), offering a comparative framework that bridges these two increasingly interconnected ecosystems. We pro…
View article: Cryptocurrencies in the Balance Sheet: Insights from (Micro)Strategy -- Bitcoin Interactions
Cryptocurrencies in the Balance Sheet: Insights from (Micro)Strategy -- Bitcoin Interactions Open
This paper investigates the evolving link between cryptocurrency and equity markets in the context of the recent wave of corporate Bitcoin (BTC) treasury strategies. We assemble a dataset of 39 publicly listed firms holding BTC, from their…
View article: DebtStreamness: An Ecological Approach to Credit Flows in Inter-Firm Networks
DebtStreamness: An Ecological Approach to Credit Flows in Inter-Firm Networks Open
Understanding how credit flows through inter-firm networks is critical for assessing financial stability and systemic risk. In this study, we introduce DebtStreamness, a novel metric inspired by trophic levels in ecological food webs, to q…
View article: Understanding Financial Contagion: A Complexity Modeling Perspective
Understanding Financial Contagion: A Complexity Modeling Perspective Open
This chapter reviews key contributions of complexity science to the study of systemic risk in financial systems. The focus is on network models of financial contagion, where I explore various mechanisms of shock propagation, such as counte…
View article: Financial instability transition under heterogeneous investments and portfolio diversification
Financial instability transition under heterogeneous investments and portfolio diversification Open
We analyze the stability of financial investment networks, where financial institutions hold overlapping portfolios of assets. We consider the effect of portfolio diversification and heterogeneous investments using a random matrix dynamica…
View article: Top eigenpair statistics of diluted Wishart matrices
Top eigenpair statistics of diluted Wishart matrices Open
Using the replica method, we compute the statistics of the top eigenpair of diluted covariance matrices of the form $\mathbf{J} = \mathbf{X}^T \mathbf{X}$, where $\mathbf{X}$ is a $N\times M$ sparse data matrix, in the limit of large $N,M$…
View article: Upstreamness and downstreamness in input–output analysis from local and aggregate information
Upstreamness and downstreamness in input–output analysis from local and aggregate information Open
Ranking sectors and countries within global value chains is of paramount importance to estimate risks and forecast growth in large economies. However, this task is often non-trivial due to the lack of complete and accurate information on t…
View article: Spectral Coarse-Graining and Rescaling for Preserving Structural and Dynamical Properties in Graphs
Spectral Coarse-Graining and Rescaling for Preserving Structural and Dynamical Properties in Graphs Open
We introduce a graph renormalization procedure based on the coarse-grained Laplacian, which generates reduced-complexity representations for characteristic scales identified through the spectral gap. This method retains both diffusion prob…
View article: Distribution of centrality measures on undirected random networks via the cavity method
Distribution of centrality measures on undirected random networks via the cavity method Open
The Katz centrality of a node in a complex network is a measure of the node’s importance as far as the flow of information across the network is concerned. For ensembles of locally tree-like undirected random graphs, this observable is a r…
View article: The academic Great Gatsby Curve
The academic Great Gatsby Curve Open
The Great Gatsby Curve measures the relationship between income inequality and intergenerational income persistence. By using genealogical data of over 245 000 mentor–mentee pairs and their academic publications from 22 different disciplin…
View article: Imitation versus serendipity in ranking dynamics
Imitation versus serendipity in ranking dynamics Open
Participants in socio-economic systems are often ranked based on their performance. Rankings conveniently reduce the complexity of such systems to ordered lists. Yet, it has been shown in many contexts that those who reach the top are not …
View article: Phase transitions in debt recycling
Phase transitions in debt recycling Open
Debt recycling is an aggressive equity extraction strategy that potentially permits faster repayment of a mortgage. While equity progressively builds up as the mortgage is repaid monthly, mortgage holders may obtain another loan they could…
View article: Distribution of centrality measures on undirected random networks via cavity method
Distribution of centrality measures on undirected random networks via cavity method Open
The Katz centrality of a node in a complex network is a measure of the node's importance as far as the flow of information across the network is concerned. For ensembles of locally tree-like and undirected random graphs, this observable is…
View article: Imitation vs serendipity in ranking dynamics
Imitation vs serendipity in ranking dynamics Open
Participants in socio-economic systems are often ranked based on their performance. Rankings conveniently reduce the complexity of such systems to ordered lists. Yet, it has been shown in many contexts that those who reach the top are not …
View article: Financial fire sales as continuous-state complex contagion
Financial fire sales as continuous-state complex contagion Open
Trading activities in financial systems create various channels through which systemic risk can propagate. An important contagion channel is financial fire sales, where a bank failure causes asset prices to fall due to asset liquidation, w…
View article: The academic Great Gatsby Curve
The academic Great Gatsby Curve Open
The Great Gatsby Curve measures the relationship between income inequality and intergenerational income persistence. By utilizing genealogical data of over 245,000 mentor-mentee pairs and their academic publications from 22 different disci…
View article: Ranking influential nodes in networks from aggregate local information
Ranking influential nodes in networks from aggregate local information Open
Many complex systems exhibit a natural hierarchy in which elements can be ranked according to a notion of “influence”. While the complete and accurate knowledge of the interactions between constituents is ordinarily required for the comput…
View article: Ranking mobility and impact inequality in early academic careers
Ranking mobility and impact inequality in early academic careers Open
How difficult is it for an early career academic to climb the ranks of their discipline? We tackle this question with a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of 57 disciplines, examining the publications of more than 5 million authors whose …
View article: ESG Reputation Risk Matters: An Event Study Based on Social Media Data
ESG Reputation Risk Matters: An Event Study Based on Social Media Data Open
We investigate the response of shareholders to Environmental, Social, and Governance-related reputational risk (ESG-risk), focusing exclusively on the impact of social media. Using a dataset of 114 million tweets about firms listed on the …
View article: Ranking mobility and impact inequality in early academic careers
Ranking mobility and impact inequality in early academic careers Open
How difficult is it for an early career academic to climb the ranks of their discipline? We tackle this question with a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of 57 disciplines, examining the publications of more than 5 million authors whose …
View article: Correlation between upstreamness and downstreamness in random global value chains
Correlation between upstreamness and downstreamness in random global value chains Open
This paper is concerned with upstreamness and downstreamness of industries and countries. Upstreamness and downstreamness measure respectively the average distance of an industrial sector from final consumption and from primary inputs. Rec…