Andrew J. G. Cairns
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View article: Cancer disparities: Projection, COVID-19, and scenario-based diagnosis delay impact
Cancer disparities: Projection, COVID-19, and scenario-based diagnosis delay impact Open
There has been limited research on how disparities in cancer mortality may evolve in the future, although relevant socio-economic and regional disparities in cancer risk are well-documented. We studied future trends in breast cancer (BC) a…
View article: Cancer insurance pricing under different scenarios associated with diagnosis and treatment
Cancer insurance pricing under different scenarios associated with diagnosis and treatment Open
We consider pricing of a specialised critical illness and life insurance contract for breast cancer (BC) risk. We compare (a) an industry-based Markov model with (b) a recently developed semi-Markov model, which accounts for unobserved BC …
View article: The power of prevention – a lifeline for the NHS?
The power of prevention – a lifeline for the NHS? Open
Governments all over the world are struggling to control the spiralling costs of healthcare – the UK government is no exception. Its long-term strategy includes a much greater focus on prevention: to keep people as healthy and productive a…
View article: Covid-19 mortality: the Proportionality Hypothesis
Covid-19 mortality: the Proportionality Hypothesis Open
We introduce and provide evidence to support the Proportionality Hypothesis which states that Covid-19 infection fatality rates are approximately proportional to all-cause death rates by age and subgroup (e.g., socio-economic class). We al…
View article: The effect of the COVID-19 health disruptions on breast cancer mortality for older women: a semi-Markov modelling approach
The effect of the COVID-19 health disruptions on breast cancer mortality for older women: a semi-Markov modelling approach Open
Public health measures necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic have affected cancer pathways by halting screening, delaying diagnostic tests and reducing the numbers starting treatment. Specifically, this moves individuals from observed and …
View article: Cancer mortality projection: disparities, COVID-19, and late diagnosis impact
Cancer mortality projection: disparities, COVID-19, and late diagnosis impact Open
This paper investigates projection of two major causes of cancer mortality, breast cancer and lung cancer, by using a Bayesian modelling framework. We investigate patterns in 2001-2018 (as baseline) in cause-specific cancer mortality and p…
View article: The great health challenge: levelling up the U.K.
The great health challenge: levelling up the U.K. Open
Around the world, there are persistent and growing health inequalities both between and within countries. The U.K. Government’s flagship policy for addressing inequalities is called ‘Levelling Up’. One of its missions is to narrow the gap …
View article: Drivers of mortality: risk factors and inequality
Drivers of mortality: risk factors and inequality Open
This paper takes a detailed look at socio-economic variation in mortality across England. Generic metrics such as the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) can be effective at the aggregate level of national deciles, but we demonstrate that …
View article: The Impact of Covid-19 on Higher-Age Mortality
The Impact of Covid-19 on Higher-Age Mortality Open
We propose a simple model for accelerated deaths that draws on the observation that many of those who died from Covid-19 were often, but not always, much less healthy than the average for their age group; further, the vast majority who die…
View article: Insurance pricing for breast cancer under different multiple state models
Insurance pricing for breast cancer under different multiple state models Open
In this paper we consider pricing of insurance contracts for breast cancer risk based on three multiple state models. Using population data in England and data from the medical literature, we calibrate a collection of semi-Markov and Marko…
View article: Modelling socio-economic mortality at neighbourhood level
Modelling socio-economic mortality at neighbourhood level Open
In this study, we quantify the relationship between socio-economic status and life expectancy and identify combinations of socio-economic variables that are particularly useful for explaining mortality differences between neighbourhoods in…
View article: The effect of the COVID-19 health disruptions on breast cancer mortality for older women: A semi-Markov modelling approach
The effect of the COVID-19 health disruptions on breast cancer mortality for older women: A semi-Markov modelling approach Open
We propose a methodology to quantify the impact on breast cancer mortality of diagnostic delays caused by public health measures introduced as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These measures affected cancer pathways by halting cancer s…
View article: A general framework for analysing the mortality experience of a large portfolio of lives: with an application to the UK universities superannuation scheme
A general framework for analysing the mortality experience of a large portfolio of lives: with an application to the UK universities superannuation scheme Open
We propose a general framework that can be used to analyse the mortality experience of a large portfolio of lives. The objective of the framework is to provide a firm evidence base to support the setting of future mortality assumptions for…
View article: Socioeconomic disparities in cancer incidence and mortality in England and the impact of age-at-diagnosis on cancer mortality
Socioeconomic disparities in cancer incidence and mortality in England and the impact of age-at-diagnosis on cancer mortality Open
Background We identify socioeconomic disparities by region in cancer morbidity and mortality in England for all-cancer and type-specific cancers, and use incidence data to quantify the impact of cancer diagnosis delays on cancer deaths bet…
View article: Longevity risk and capital markets: the 2018–19 update
Longevity risk and capital markets: the 2018–19 update Open
This Special Issue of the Annals of Actuarial Science contains 12 contributions to the academic literature all dealing with longevity risk and capital markets. Draft versions of the papers were presented at Longevity 14: The Fourteenth Int…
View article: CBDX: a workhorse mortality model from the Cairns–Blake–Dowd family
CBDX: a workhorse mortality model from the Cairns–Blake–Dowd family Open
The purpose of this paper is to identify a workhorse mortality model for the adult age range (i.e., excluding the accident hump and younger ages). It applies the “general procedure” (GP) of Hunt & Blake [(2014), North American Actuarial Jo…
View article: Hedging Annuity Risks with the Age-Period-Cohort Two-Population Gravity Model
Hedging Annuity Risks with the Age-Period-Cohort Two-Population Gravity Model Open
We consider the effectiveness of an illustrative annuity hedging problem in which a forward annuity predicated on one population is hedged by a position in a forward annuity predicated on another population. Our analysis makes use of the a…
View article: MODELLING SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENCES IN MORTALITY USING A NEW AFFLUENCE INDEX
MODELLING SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENCES IN MORTALITY USING A NEW AFFLUENCE INDEX Open
We introduce a new modelling framework to explain socio-economic differences in mortality in terms of an affluence index that combines information on individual wealth and income. The model is illustrated using data on older Danish males o…
View article: Intrinsic Flexibility of the EMT Zeolite Framework Under Pressure
Intrinsic Flexibility of the EMT Zeolite Framework Under Pressure Open
The roles of organic additives in the assembly and crystallisation of zeolites is still not fully understood. This is important when attempting to prepare novel frameworks to produce new zeolites. We consider 18-crown-6 ether as an additiv…
View article: Intrinsic Flexibility of the EMT Zeolite Framework Under Pressure
Intrinsic Flexibility of the EMT Zeolite Framework Under Pressure Open
The roles of organic additives in the assembly and crystallisation of zeolites is still not fully understood. This is important when attempting to prepare novel frameworks to produce new zeolites. We consider 18-crown-6 ether as an additiv…
View article: Still living with mortality: the longevity risk transfer market after one decade
Still living with mortality: the longevity risk transfer market after one decade Open
This paper updates Living with Mortality published in 2006. It describes how the longevity risk transfer market has developed over the intervening period, and, in particular, how insurance-based solutions – buy-outs, buy-ins and longevity …