Domenico Giannone
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View article: The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations on the Debt Distribution
The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations on the Debt Distribution Open
This paper estimates the effects of fiscal expenditure consolidations on the entire distribution of public debt-to-GDP for an unbalanced sample of 192 countries over the period 1991-2021. Employing panel location-scale models, we show that…
View article: Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk
Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk Open
We introduce methodology to bridge scenario analysis and model-based risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. Our Bayesian framework addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental narrative…
View article: Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk
Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk Open
We develop methodology to bridge scenario analysis and risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. The methodology, rooted in Bayesian analysis, addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental …
View article: Debt-at-Risk
Debt-at-Risk Open
This paper proposes a novel framework for analyzing the risks surrounding the public debt outlook, the “Debt-at-Risk.” It employs a quantile panel regression framework to assess how current macrofinancial and political conditions impact th…
View article: Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth
Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth Open
We study the relationship between bank capital ratios and the distribution of future real GDP growth. Growth in the aggregate bank capital ratio corresponds to a smaller left tail of GDP—smaller crisis probability—but at the cost of a smal…
View article: MOSAIC at the ELT: a unique instrument for the largest ground-based telescope
MOSAIC at the ELT: a unique instrument for the largest ground-based telescope Open
Pelló, Roser et al.-- Full list of authors: Pelló, Roser; Puech, Mathieu; Prieto, Éric; Rodrigues, Myriam; Sanchez-Janssen, Rubén.; Dalton, Gavin B.; Ducret, Franck; El Hadi, Kacem; García-Vargas, María. L.; Lynn, Jeff; Bharmal, Nazim A.; …
View article: ANDES, the high-resolution spectrograph for the ELT: RIZ Spectrograph preliminary design
ANDES, the high-resolution spectrograph for the ELT: RIZ Spectrograph preliminary design Open
We present here the preliminary design of the RIZ module, one of the visible spectrographs of the ANDES instrument 1. It is a fiber-fed high-resolution, high-stability spectrograph. Its design follows the guidelines of successful predecess…
View article: 4MOST: the 4-metre multi-object spectroscopic telescope project in the assembly, integration, and test phase
4MOST: the 4-metre multi-object spectroscopic telescope project in the assembly, integration, and test phase Open
4MOST is a new high-multiplex, wide-field spectroscopic survey facility under construction for ESO's 4m-VISTA telescope at Paranal, Chile. Its key specifications are: a large field of view of 4.4 square degrees, a high multiplex fibre posi…
View article: Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model
Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model Open
We build a model for simultaneously now-casting economic conditions in the euro area and its three largest member countries|Germany, France, and Italy. The model formalizes how market participants and policymakers monitor the euro area by …
View article: MULTIMODALITY IN MACROFINANCIAL DYNAMICS
MULTIMODALITY IN MACROFINANCIAL DYNAMICS Open
We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions. Although the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the em…
View article: Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity
Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity Open
We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics, and finance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. …
View article: Alternative Economic Indicators
Alternative Economic Indicators Open
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed report…
View article: First demonstration of OH suppression in a high-efficiency near-infrared spectrograph
First demonstration of OH suppression in a high-efficiency near-infrared spectrograph Open
Ground-based near-infrared (NIR) astronomy is severely hampered by the forest of atmospheric emission lines resulting from the rovibrational decay of OH molecules in the upper atmosphere. The extreme brightness of these lines, as well as t…
View article: Replication data for: Vulnerable Growth
Replication data for: Vulnerable Growth Open
We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean …
View article: Global Trends in Interest Rates
Global Trends in Interest Rates Open
The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades.This decline has been common among advanced economies, as…
View article: Priors for the Long Run
Priors for the Long Run Open
We propose a class of prior distributions that discipline the long-run behavior of vector autoregressions (VARs). These priors can be naturally elicited using economic theory, which provides guidance on the joint dynamics of macroeconomic …
View article: Global Trends in Interest Rates
Global Trends in Interest Rates Open
The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades.This decline has been common among advanced economies, as…