Jonathan M. Gregory
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View article: Understanding the Climate Response to Different Vertical Patterns of Radiative Forcing
Understanding the Climate Response to Different Vertical Patterns of Radiative Forcing Open
The dependence of climate response on the vertical structure of radiative forcing is studied using a set of idealized experiments, with horizontally uniform and vertically confined forcings. We find for a given effective forcing magnitude,…
View article: Spatial and Temporal Variation in Wave Overtopping Across a Coastal Structure Based on One Year of Field Observations
Spatial and Temporal Variation in Wave Overtopping Across a Coastal Structure Based on One Year of Field Observations Open
Coastal managers worldwide must prepare for changes in annual wave overtopping events due to climate change and sea-level rise. Research often assesses overtopping discharges by extreme events at a sea wall crest, typically using data from…
View article: Mean ocean temperature change and decomposition of the benthic <i>δ</i> <sup>18</sup> O record over the past 4.5 million years
Mean ocean temperature change and decomposition of the benthic <i>δ</i> <sup>18</sup> O record over the past 4.5 million years Open
We use a recent reconstruction of global mean sea surface temperature change relative to preindustrial (ΔGMSST) over the last 4.5 Myr together with independent proxy-based reconstructions of bottom water (ΔBWT) or deep-ocean (ΔDOT) tempera…
View article: Time-varying global energy budget since 1880 from a reconstruction of ocean warming
Time-varying global energy budget since 1880 from a reconstruction of ocean warming Open
This dataset was produced as part of the research presented in the paper "Time-varying global energy budget since 1880 from a reconstruction of ocean warming" published in PNAS. For detailed methodology, analysis, and interpretation of the…
View article: Time-varying global energy budget since 1880 from a reconstruction of ocean warming
Time-varying global energy budget since 1880 from a reconstruction of ocean warming Open
The global energy budget is fundamental for understanding climate change. It states that the top-of-atmosphere imbalance between radiative forcing (which drives climate change) and radiative response (which resists the forcing) equals ener…
View article: Advancing ProFSea: a spatially-resolved sea-level change emulator for long-term impacts&#160;
Advancing ProFSea: a spatially-resolved sea-level change emulator for long-term impacts  Open
Sea-level rise simulation has previously been limited to Earth system models and global emulators - restricting spatially-resolved sea-level projections to those based on ageing emissions pathways with inflexible and expensive frameworks f…
View article: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP): Reviewing project history, evolution, infrastructure and implementation
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP): Reviewing project history, evolution, infrastructure and implementation Open
The CMIP6 project was the most expansive and ambitious Model Intercomparison Project (MIP), the latest in a long history, extending back four decades. CMIP has captivated and engaged a broad, growing community focused on improving our clim…
View article: Mean ocean temperature change and decomposition of the benthic δ <sup>18</sup> O record over the last 4.5 Myr
Mean ocean temperature change and decomposition of the benthic δ <sup>18</sup> O record over the last 4.5 Myr Open
We use a recent compilation of global mean sea surface temperature changes (ΔGMSST) over the last 4.5 Myr together with independent proxy-based reconstructions of bottom water or deep ocean temperatures to infer changes in mean ocean tempe…
View article: Large-ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation–ice sheet model
Large-ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation–ice sheet model Open
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was characterised by huge ice sheets covering the Northern Hemisphere, especially over North America, and by its cold climate. Previous authors have performed numerical simulations of the LGM to better unders…
View article: A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise
A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise Open
We present a framework for developing storylines of UK sea level rise to aid risk communication and coastal adaptation planning. Our approach builds on the UK national climate projections (UKCP18) and maintains the same physically consiste…
View article: Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity
Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity Open
The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)—key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing…
View article: Assessing the Impact of Surface Energy Inputs on Radiative Feedbacks in Tropical and Extra-tropical Regions: Strength, Evolution, and Timescales
Assessing the Impact of Surface Energy Inputs on Radiative Feedbacks in Tropical and Extra-tropical Regions: Strength, Evolution, and Timescales Open
In recent years, radiative feedbacks in the earth system have been strongly tied to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This “pattern effect” has been strongly tied to the strength of cloud radiative feedbac…
View article: Sea-level projections in recent IPCC reports: how we got here, where we are and where we&#8217;re going&#160;
Sea-level projections in recent IPCC reports: how we got here, where we are and where we’re going  Open
Sea-level science has seen many recent developments in observations and modelling of the different contributions and the total mean sea-level change. Here, we focus on sea-level projections in the recent IPCC reports, and discuss (1) the e…
View article: The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol
The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol Open
The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it ha…
View article: The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change Open
Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertaint…
View article: Data for "The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol"
Data for "The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol" Open
Data used in the analysis for the GFMIP Protocol paper, in the form of .jld2 files, to be used in conjunction with https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7697344
View article: Data for "The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol"
Data for "The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol" Open
Data used in the analysis for the GFMIP Protocol paper, in the form of .jld2 files, to be used in conjunction with https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7697344
View article: Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty Open
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estim…
View article: Anthropogenic Aerosols Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s
Anthropogenic Aerosols Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s Open
Greenhouse gases and aerosols play a major role in controlling global climate change. Greenhouse gases drive a radiative imbalance which warms the ocean, while aerosols cool the ocean. Since 1980, the effective radiation felt by the planet…
View article: Uncertainties in the Arctic Ocean response to CO$$_2$$: a process-based analysis
Uncertainties in the Arctic Ocean response to CO$$_2$$: a process-based analysis Open
Using an ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) in an idealized climate change experiment, this study evaluates the contribution of different ocean processes to Arctic Ocean warming. On the AOGCM-mean, the Arctic …
View article: Background Pycnocline Depth Constrains Future Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency
Background Pycnocline Depth Constrains Future Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Open
The Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency (OHUE) quantifies the ocean's ability to mitigate surface warming through deep heat sequestration. Despite its importance, the main controls on OHUE, and on its two‐fold spread across contemporary climate m…
View article: Large ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation-ice sheet model
Large ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation-ice sheet model Open
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is characterised by huge ice sheets covering the Northern Hemisphere, especially over North America, and by its cold climate. Numerical simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the LGM have been performed…
View article: Supplementary material to "Large ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation-ice sheet model"
Supplementary material to "Large ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation-ice sheet model" Open
Fig. S1 Initial conditions and spin-up in stand-alone ice sheet model simulations.(a) ice topography from Tarasov et al. (2012, m) and (b) bedrock topography [m].Differences of bedrock between 21ka and 0ka in Tarasov et al. (2012) are adde…
View article: Time‐Evolving Radiative Feedbacks in the Historical Period
Time‐Evolving Radiative Feedbacks in the Historical Period Open
We investigate the time‐dependence of radiative feedback in the historical period (since the late 19th century), by analyzing experiments using coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models with historical greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol, …
View article: Insights on the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Insights on the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty Open
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from -5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estim…
View article: An observationally based estimate of global ocean heat uptake since 1880
An observationally based estimate of global ocean heat uptake since 1880 Open
Data for reproducing the Green's function estimate of historical ocean heat uptake.
View article: Background Pycnocline depth constrains Future Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency
Background Pycnocline depth constrains Future Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Open
The Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency (OHUE) quantifies the ocean's ability to mitigate surface warming through deep heat sequestration. Despite its importance, the main controls on OHUE, as well as its nearly two-fold spread across contemporar…
View article: Anthropogenic aerosols offsetting ocean warming less efficiently since the 1980s
Anthropogenic aerosols offsetting ocean warming less efficiently since the 1980s Open
Greenhouse gases and aerosols play a major role in controlling global climate change. Greenhouse gases drive a radiative imbalance which warms the ocean, while aerosols cool the ocean. Since 1980, the effective radiation felt by the planet…