Grigory Nikulin
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View article: Analysis of the 2024 Hajj heat event and future temperature extremes in Mecca
Analysis of the 2024 Hajj heat event and future temperature extremes in Mecca Open
Extreme heat events in the Middle East have become increasingly frequent and intense due to human-driven climate change. During the Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, in June 2024, temperatures soared to a record-breaking 51.8 °C, res…
View article: Projected climate change in Fennoscandia – and its relation to ensemble spread and global trends
Projected climate change in Fennoscandia – and its relation to ensemble spread and global trends Open
The need for information about climate change is constantly increasing. This information is usually based on climate model data — data that often have systematic biases. Furthermore, there are questions about how climate model ensembles ar…
View article: Delivering an Improved Framework for the New Generation of CMIP6-Driven EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations
Delivering an Improved Framework for the New Generation of CMIP6-Driven EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations Open
The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a coordinated international activity that has produced ensembles of regional climate simulations with domains that cover all land areas of the world. These ensembles are used by a…
View article: The impact of lateral boundary forcing in the CORDEX-Africa ensemble over southern Africa
The impact of lateral boundary forcing in the CORDEX-Africa ensemble over southern Africa Open
The region of southern Africa (SAF) is among the most exposed climate change hotspots and is projected to experience severe impacts across multiple economical and societal sectors. For this reason, producing reliable projections of the exp…
View article: Modeling present-day and future extreme events in the Lake Victoria Basin
Modeling present-day and future extreme events in the Lake Victoria Basin Open
The population in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) is affected by extreme weather both on land, where flooding regularly occurs and on the lake, where nightly storms often catch fishermen by surprise. The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study ELVIC inv…
View article: The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas
The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas Open
The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across th…
View article: Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection-permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa)
Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection-permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa) Open
The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study ELVIC (climate Extremes in the Lake VICtoria basin) was recently established to investigate how extreme weather events will evolve in this region of the world and to provide improved information for the clim…
View article: A multi-model ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa)
A multi-model ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa) Open
Data produced by all CORDEX FPS - ELVIC models (COSMO-CLM, HCLIM38, WRF, RegCM, UKMO), covering the larger region surrounding Lake Victoria - East-Africa. This data accompanies ELVIC's evaluation paper (van Lipzig et al., 2022, submitted).…
View article: A multi-model ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa)
A multi-model ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa) Open
Data produced by all CORDEX FPS - ELVIC models (COSMO-CLM, HCLIM38, WRF, RegCM, UKMO), covering the larger region surrounding Lake Victoria - East-Africa. This data accompanies ELVIC's evaluation paper (van Lipzig et al., 2022, submitted).…
View article: The impact of lateral boundary forcing in the CORDEX-Africa ensemble over southern Africa
The impact of lateral boundary forcing in the CORDEX-Africa ensemble over southern Africa Open
The region of southern Africa (SAF) is among the most exposed climate change hotspots and is projected to experience severe impacts on multiple economical and societal sectors. For this reason, producing reliable projections of the expecte…
View article: What Can We Know About Recent Past Precipitation Over Africa? Daily Characteristics of African Precipitation From a Large Ensemble of Observational Products for Model Evaluation
What Can We Know About Recent Past Precipitation Over Africa? Daily Characteristics of African Precipitation From a Large Ensemble of Observational Products for Model Evaluation Open
We assess the daily characteristics of recent past precipitation over Africa by means of a large ensemble of observational products, including reanalysis, gauge‐based, and satellite‐based products. The spatial distribution of seasonal mean…
View article: Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and <scp>SSPs</scp>: A <scp>CORDEX</scp>‐based study
Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and <span>SSPs</span>: A <span>CORDEX</span>‐based study Open
Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures ex…
View article: Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa Open
Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is require…
View article: Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection- permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa)
Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection- permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa) Open
<p>Extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation, hail storms, heat waves, droughts and strong wind gusts have a detrimental impact on East African societies. The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) is especially vulnerable, due to a lar…
View article: Evaluation of the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Model Ensemble
Evaluation of the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Model Ensemble Open
The use of regional climate model (RCM)‐based projections for providing regional climate information in a research and climate service contexts is currently expanding very fast. This has been possible thanks to a considerable effort in dev…
View article: Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble
Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble Open
This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO‐CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (…
View article: European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)
European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) Open
In this study, we evaluate a set of high-resolution (25–50 km horizontal grid spacing) global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), developed as part of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA (Process-…
View article: Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa
Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa Open
West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact …
View article: Peer Review #2 of "Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa (v0.1)"
Peer Review #2 of "Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa (v0.1)" Open
West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and
View article: The impact of regional climate model formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa
The impact of regional climate model formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa Open
We investigate the impact of model formulation and horizontal resolution on the ability of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation in Africa. Two RCMs (SMHI-RCA4 and HCLIM38-ALADIN) are utilized for downscaling the ERA-Int…
View article: HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales
HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales Open
This paper presents a new version of HCLIM, a regional climate modelling system based on the ALADIN–HIRLAM numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. HCLIM uses atmospheric physics packages from three NWP model configurations, HARMONIE–ARO…
View article: A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models
A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models Open
The results of a large ensemble of regional climate models lead to two contrasting but plausible scenarios for the precipitation change over West Africa, one where mean precipitation is projected to decrease significantly over the Gulf of …
View article: Multi-model decadal predictions of probabilities for seasonal mean temperature and precipitation extremes
Multi-model decadal predictions of probabilities for seasonal mean temperature and precipitation extremes Open
<p>There is great interest from a wide range of stakeholders in near-term climate prediction ranging from seasonal to decadal timescales. While seasonal forecasting is done operationally since more than 20 years now, decadal climate …
View article: Climate Extremes in the Lake Victoria Basin: The ELVIC CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study
Climate Extremes in the Lake Victoria Basin: The ELVIC CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study Open
<p>Extreme weather events, like heavy precipitation, heat waves, droughts and wind storms have a detrimental impact on East African societies. The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) is especially vulnerable, since nightly storms on the lake c…