Guido Baldi
YOU?
Author Swipe
German Economy Currently Scarcely Making Headway Open
Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowi…
Global Economy: USA and China Leading the Way, Europe Lagging Behind: DIW Economic Outlook Spring 2021 Open
The resurgence of the pandemic and renewed lockdowns have slowed the recovery of the global economy, but the overall losses will be less severe than after the first coronavirus wave in spring 2020. Industry in particular continues to devel…
Global Economy Returning to Its Recovery Course after Summer Setbacks: DIW Economic Outlook Autumn 2021 Open
Recently, the coronavirus pandemic has caused economic developments in major economies to drift apart: While infection rates were declining and production was experiencing strong growth in places such as Europe and the United States in the…
Global Economy: Advanced Economies Facing a Strong Upturn: DIW Economic Outlook Summer 2021 Open
Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining…
Intangible Capital Formation, International Equity Investments, and Output Synchronization Open
We analyze the effects of intangible investment on international output synchronization. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we find that an increase in the importance of intangible capital leads to a higher degree of out…
Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in an Intangible Economy Open
Advanced economies are increasingly based on intangible capital. Intangible capital has at least two special characteristics compared to tangible capital. First, it can be simultaneously used to produce different goods. Second, it is less …
Il "Sogno d’un tramonto d’autunno": la «decadenza» e il fuoco Open
The essay connects the one-act play with Il fuoco, born in the same years, pointing out both theme consonances and differences: in the first place, the absence in the play of the superhumanly ideologization of decadence as an urge to the i…
Coronavirus Pandemic Plunging Global Economy into a Serious Recession: DIW Economic Outlook Open
The consequences of the ongoing 2020 coronavirus pandemic are leaving deep marks on the global economy. In the first quarter of 2020, global production sank by 15.5 percent over the course of the worldwide lockdown. Since containment measu…
Coronavirus Causing Major Economic Shock to the Global Economy: DIW Economic Outlook Open
The ongoing corona pandemic is causing a major shock to the global economy. In the coming months, many countries are expected to suffer severe economic downturns. Sealing off entire regions disrupts supply chains, resulting in production l…
Coronavirus causing major economic shock to the global economy Open
The ongoing corona pandemic is causing a major shock to the global economy. In the coming months, many countries are expected to suffer severe economic downturns. Sealing off entire regions disrupts supply chains, resulting in production l…
The Interest Rate Sensitivity of Investment Open
The interest rate sensitivity of investment has often played an important role in macroeconomic models. However, many vector autoregressive (VAR) models do not include investment to the list of variables. In this paper, we empirically inve…
Political Budget Cycles: Evidence from Swiss Cantons Open
Models of political budget cycles assume that politicians use fiscal policy to increase their chances of re-election. However, empirical results for advanced economies provide ambiguous support for the existence of such electoral cycles. A…
The Evolution of Factor Shares: Evidence from Switzerland Open
While the labor share of income has decreased in most advanced economies since the 1980s, it has remained relatively stable in Switzerland. However, this does not imply that the capital share of income has also remained stable. Our results…
The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Weak International Trade, Robust Domestic Demand: DIW Economic Outlook Open
The current global economic environment remains harsh. Global growth rates stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2018, particularly affected by foreign trade. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2019 and …
Global Economy Continues to Suffer Weak Growth Momentum: DIW Economic Outlook Open
Favorable labor market conditions and the resulting increase in private consumption are still sustaining the global economy. Trade disputes and political uncertainties, however, continue to slow investment activity, with the result that ec…
Global Economy and the Euro Area: Protectionism Weighing on Trade and Investment: DIW Economic Outlook Open
The global economy is holding steady amidst uncertainty, although subdued export and investment growth in some places is already proving the extent to which protectionism and the unresolved trade conflicts are negatively affecting the econ…
Intangible Investments and International Business Cycles Open
Intangible capital is an increasingly important factor of production in advanced economies. Governments in Europe and elsewhere promote investment in intangible assets. However, the potential role of intangibles for business cycles and the…
The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Increased Uncertainty Is Dampening Growth Open
The political conditions for growth are currently dominated by increased uncertainty; this is particularly weighing on investment activity and slowing down the global economy. DIW Berlin is lowering its forecast slightly for this year and …
Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighs on Trade and Investment: DIW Economic Outlook Open
The global expansion weakened somewhat in the third quarter while the downside risks have increased. DIW Berlin’s forecast— almost unchanged—indicates an expansion in global economic production of 4.3 percent for 2018 and 3.9 percent for 2…
The Global Economy and the Euro Area: So Far Trade Disputes Have Had Only Limited Effects on Global Growth: DIW Economic Outlook Open
After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the g…