Hamish Steptoe
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View article: Flexible Distributed Lag Models for Count Data Using <tt>mgcv</tt>
Flexible Distributed Lag Models for Count Data Using mgcv Open
In this tutorial we present the use of R package mgcv to implement Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNMs) in a flexible way. Interpretation of smoothing splines as random quantities enables approximate Bayesian inference, which in turn …
View article: A unifying modelling approach for hierarchical distributed lag models
A unifying modelling approach for hierarchical distributed lag models Open
We present a statistical modelling framework for implementing Distributed Lag Models (DLMs), encompassing several extensions of the approach to capture the temporally distributed effect from covariates via regression. We place DLMs in the …
View article: Probabilistic UK Climate Projections Conditioned on Global Warming Levels
Probabilistic UK Climate Projections Conditioned on Global Warming Levels Open
Probabilistic projections from the UK Climate Projections 2018 are presented for four global warming levels (GWLs) at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Our results show how uncertainties associated with climate models and fo…
View article: A collaborative hackathon to investigate climate change and extreme weather impacts in justice and insurance settings
A collaborative hackathon to investigate climate change and extreme weather impacts in justice and insurance settings Open
By bringing together a large group of participants with diverse skillsets, hackathons aim to make good headway into a particular research topic over a short period of time. This collaborative approach supports relationship building, cross …
View article: A new observational analysis of near surface air temperature change since the late 18th century developed for the GloSAT project
A new observational analysis of near surface air temperature change since the late 18th century developed for the GloSAT project Open
The GloSAT project is developing a new observational analysis of global air temperature change over land and ocean since the late 18th century.A new global analysis processing system has been developed that uses a computationally efficient…
View article: Proliferation of atmospheric datasets can hinder policy making: a data blending technique offers a solution
Proliferation of atmospheric datasets can hinder policy making: a data blending technique offers a solution Open
The proliferation of atmospheric datasets is a key outcome from the continued development and advancement of our collective scientific understanding. Yet often datasets describing ostensibly identical processes or atmospheric variables pro…
View article: ARRCC-CARISSA WP3 Nepal Data
ARRCC-CARISSA WP3 Nepal Data Open
Data supporting the ARRCC-CARISSA WP3 rainfall extremes over Nepal project.
View article: ARRCC-CARISSA WP3 Nepal Data
ARRCC-CARISSA WP3 Nepal Data Open
Data supporting the ARRCC-CARISSA WP3 rainfall extremes over Nepal project.
View article: Deep Learning for Tropical Cyclone Nowcasting: Experiments with Generative Adversarial and Recurrent Neural Networks
Deep Learning for Tropical Cyclone Nowcasting: Experiments with Generative Adversarial and Recurrent Neural Networks Open
<p>Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are deadly but rare events that cause considerable loss of life and property damage every year. Traditional TC forecasting and tracking methods focus on numerical forecasting models, synoptic forecasting an…
View article: Advances in numerical weather prediction, data science, and open‐source software herald a paradigm shift in catastrophe risk modeling and insurance underwriting
Advances in numerical weather prediction, data science, and open‐source software herald a paradigm shift in catastrophe risk modeling and insurance underwriting Open
Recent advances in numerical weather prediction, combined with the new generation, high‐resolution climate simulations, and open‐source loss modeling frameworks, herald a move beyond the limited statistical representation of catastrophe ri…
View article: MetOffice/IKI-Oasis-Bangladesh: Final Release
MetOffice/IKI-Oasis-Bangladesh: Final Release Open
Final release of code relating to the Oasis Platform for Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment – Asia project, a project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI), supported by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature …
View article: Extreme wind return periods from tropical cyclones in Bangladesh: insights from a high-resolution convection-permitting numerical model
Extreme wind return periods from tropical cyclones in Bangladesh: insights from a high-resolution convection-permitting numerical model Open
We use high-resolution (4.4 km) numerical simulations of tropical cyclones to produce exceedance probability estimates for extreme wind (gust) speeds over Bangladesh. For the first time, we estimate equivalent return periods up to and incl…
View article: 20CR-DS bias corrected gridded maximum temperature (Tx) over China (1851-2010)
20CR-DS bias corrected gridded maximum temperature (Tx) over China (1851-2010) Open
Bias corrected, gridded maximum temperature (Tx) data over China, spanning 1961 to 2010, based on the dynamically downscaled version of 20th century reanalysis (20CRv2c, NOAA/ESRL PSD 20th Century Reanalysis versio…
View article: 20CR-DS bias corrected gridded maximum temperature (Tx) over China (1851-2010)
20CR-DS bias corrected gridded maximum temperature (Tx) over China (1851-2010) Open
Bias corrected, gridded maximum temperature (Tx) data over China, spanning 1961 to 2010, based on the dynamically downscaled version of 20th century reanalysis (20CRv2c, NOAA/ESRL PSD 20th Century Reanalysis versio…
View article: Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution
Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution Open
View article: Improving our understanding of wind extremes from Bangladesh tropical cyclones: insights from a high-resolution convection-permitting numerical model
Improving our understanding of wind extremes from Bangladesh tropical cyclones: insights from a high-resolution convection-permitting numerical model Open
We use high resolution (4.4 km) numerical simulations of tropical cyclones to produce exceedance probability estimates for extreme wind (gust) speeds over Bangladesh. For the first time, we estimate equivalent return periods up to and incl…
View article: Refining projections of future temperature change in West Africa
Refining projections of future temperature change in West Africa Open
Future warming in West Africa will have a detrimental effect on the communities living there. To support assessments of climate change impacts, we propose a method for refining regional temperature projections and demonstrate its applicati…
View article: Report on the Workshop on Sustainable Software Sustainability 2019 (WOSSS19)
Report on the Workshop on Sustainable Software Sustainability 2019 (WOSSS19) Open
This report is based on the discussions and presentations that took place at the Workshop on Sustainable Software Sustainability (www.software.ac.uk/wosss19) in April 2019 (WOSSS19). It captures the state of the art for a range of Software…
View article: Improving our understanding of Bangladesh tropical cyclone risk: decision making insights using kilometre scale numerical modelling and Bayesian data analysis
Improving our understanding of Bangladesh tropical cyclone risk: decision making insights using kilometre scale numerical modelling and Bayesian data analysis Open
<p>We present results from state-of-the-art kilometre scale numerical models of tropical cyclones over Bangladesh.  We demonstrate how the latest generation of numerical models are filling the data gap in regions of the worl…
View article: Exploring Inter-Basin Correlations of Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Cyclone Losses
Exploring Inter-Basin Correlations of Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Cyclone Losses Open
<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most costly natural hazards on Earth, and there is a desire to mitigate this risk. It is securely established that TC activity relates to ENSO in all oceanic basins (e.g. N. Atlantic). Howeve…
View article: Bangladesh - Tropical Cyclone Historical Catalogue
Bangladesh - Tropical Cyclone Historical Catalogue Open
Gridded data for major historical tropical cyclones over Bangladesh. Each tropical cyclone has a 9 member ensemble, and comprises of time series and footprints at resolutions of 4.4km and 1.5km based on the Met Office Unif…
View article: Bangladesh - Tropical Cyclone Historical Catalogue
Bangladesh - Tropical Cyclone Historical Catalogue Open
Gridded data for major historical tropical cyclones over Bangladesh. Each tropical cyclone has a 9 member ensemble, and comprises of time series and footprints at resolutions of 4.4km and 1.5km based on the Met Office Unif…
View article: Downscaled ERA-Interim gridded historical climate data over China (1980-2010)
Downscaled ERA-Interim gridded historical climate data over China (1980-2010) Open
Gridded historical climate data over China, spanning 1981 to 2010. Dynamically downscaled to 25km resolution using the PRECIS2.0 (HadRM3P) Met Office regional climate model, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Centre…
View article: Downscaled ERA-Interim gridded historical climate data over China (1980-2010)
Downscaled ERA-Interim gridded historical climate data over China (1980-2010) Open
Gridded historical climate data over China, spanning 1981 to 2010. Dynamically downscaled to 25km resolution using the PRECIS2.0 (HadRM3P) Met Office regional climate model, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Centre…
View article: Downscaled 20CRv2c (#37) gridded historical climate data over China (1851-2010)
Downscaled 20CRv2c (#37) gridded historical climate data over China (1851-2010) Open
Gridded historical climate data over China, spanning 1851 to 2010. Dynamically downscaled to 25km resolution using the PRECIS2.0 (HadRM3P) Met Office regional climate model, driven by 20th century reanalysis (20CRv…
View article: Downscaled 20CRv2c (#37) gridded historical climate data over China (1851-2010)
Downscaled 20CRv2c (#37) gridded historical climate data over China (1851-2010) Open
Gridded historical climate data over China, spanning 1851 to 2010. Dynamically downscaled to 25km resolution using the PRECIS2.0 (HadRM3P) Met Office regional climate model, driven by 20th century reanalysis (20CRv…
View article: Can Atmospheric Science Improve Global Disaster Resilience?
Can Atmospheric Science Improve Global Disaster Resilience? Open
Scientific understanding of atmospheric hazards and their interconnectivity can contribute to international policy and disaster risk management.
View article: Is there a robust effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the Southern Annular Mode?
Is there a robust effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the Southern Annular Mode? Open
Historical anthropogenic aerosol (AA) changes are found to have caused a statistically significant negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) trend (associated with an equatorward jet shift) in 14 out of 35 individual CMIP5 ensemble members sinc…
View article: Full‐waveform inversion of the Japanese Islands region
Full‐waveform inversion of the Japanese Islands region Open
We present a full‐waveform tomographic model of the crust and upper mantle beneath the Japanese Islands region. This is based on the combination of GPU‐accelerated spectral‐element wavefield simulations, adjoint techniques, and nonlinear o…
View article: Full Seismic Waveform Inversion for the Japanese Islands
Full Seismic Waveform Inversion for the Japanese Islands Open
ISSN:1029-7006