Hossein Tabari
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Future precipitation whiplash over Belgium from a high-resolution regional climate model Open
Precipitation whiplash events, characterized by rapid transitions between dry and wet extremes, are expected to intensify under climate change. However, current understanding of these events relies largely on coarse-scale climate models th…
Inequality in human exposure to future climate extremes Open
Future climate extremes are expected to worsen existing inequalities in human exposure, yet the specific disparities across income groups are not well understood. We investigate how future floods, heatwaves, droughts, and compound hot-dry …
Self-Attentive Transformer for Fast and Accurate Postprocessing of Temperature and Wind Speed Forecasts Open
Current postprocessing techniques often require separate models for each lead time and disregard possible interensemble relationships by either correcting each member separately or by employing distributional approaches. In this work, we t…
Predictability of Wind Ramping Events in the Belgian Offshore Zone: Insights from NWP Models and Post-processing Open
Offshore wind capacity in the Belgian Offshore Zone (BOZ) is currently 2262 MW. The increasing reliance on wind energy highlights the need for accurate forecasting and effective energy dispatch. Rapid changes in wind power, known as wind p…
Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecasting: A Comprehensive Evaluation of Weather Forecast Models and Post-Processing Methods for Belgium Open
As renewable energy sources continue to account for an increasing proportion of Belgium's energy production, decision making in renewable energy production increasingly relies on accurate numerical weather prediction forecasts. For general…
Avoided impacts of climate change on compound hot-dry events under sustainable development versus fossil-fueled development Open
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of compound hot-dry events, which can have significant impacts on human life, economic systems, and agriculture. The extent of this impact depends on the socioeconomic path…
Contrasting responses of drought and floods to background aridity in a changing climate across global terrestrial ecosystems Open
The aridity of a region plays a pivotal role in shaping a diverse range of hydrological processes, encompassing critical aspects such as the sensitivity of evaporation to variations in temperature and precipitation, water use efficiency, a…
Attention-based postprocessing of ensemble weather forecasts for renewable energy applications by leveraging inter-ensemble relationships of multiple predictors Open
Indirect models for renewable energy forecasting rely heavily on accurate weather predictions. Operational weather forecasting today is mainly based on numerical weather prediction models, often employing ensembles to estimate the day-to-d…
Unveiling the backbone of the renewable energy forecasting process: Exploring direct and indirect methods and their applications Open
A myriad of techniques regarding renewable energy forecasting have been proposed in recent literature, commonly classified as physical, statistical, machine learning based or a hybrid form thereof. The renewable energy forecasting process …
Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, Ecuador Open
Study region: Quito, Ecuador Study focus: The study region faces two water-related challenges, which, to date, have only been studied to a minimal extent: extreme precipitation events and water shortage in the dry season. This study invest…
Sustainable development substantially reduces the risk of future drought impacts Open
Drought is a major natural hazard that can cause cascading impacts on socioeconomic sectors, and its risk is expected to increase under future climate change and socioeconomic developments. However, a comprehensive cross-disciplinary droug…
Editorial: Risk analysis of hydrological extremes — spatio-temporal dynamics, interdependence, and uncertainty Open
EDITORIAL article Front. Water, 16 May 2023Sec. Water and Climate Volume 5 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2023.1205502
Climate change impacts on IDF curves, urban flooding, and river discharge in Quito,Ecuador Open
Quito, the capital of Ecuador, is an Andean city experiencing two water challenges: urban flooding driven by extreme precipitation events and water scarcity in the dry season. Climate change is expected to increase the probability of the o…
Trivariate Analysis of Changes in Drought Characteristics in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble at Global Warming Levels of 1.5°, 2°, and 3°C Open
Drought is a major natural hazard with far-reaching social, economic, and environmental impacts whose characteristics are highly interdependent across different spatial and temporal scales. Traditional global warming impact assessments on …
Uncertainty of uncertainty decomposition approaches for projections of hydrological extremes Open
The quantitative description of uncertainty in future projections of hydrometeorological variables provides valuable information for a better interpretation of climate change impact for informed policy decisions and actions to mitigate the…
How do different drought types respond to climate change? Open
More frequent, longer, and more intense droughts are expected in many regions of the world because of climate change. Although drought can propagate from precipitation to runoff and soil moisture, the anticipated climate change impact, how…
Evaluation of High-Resolution Precipitation Products over the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda) Open
The Rwenzori Mountains, in southwest Uganda, are prone to precipitation-related hazards such as flash floods and landslides. These natural hazards highly impact the lives and livelihoods of the people living in the region. However, our und…
Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change Open
The economic stress and damage from natural hazards are escalating at an alarming rate, calling for anticipatory risk management. Yet few studies have projected flood and drought risk, owing to large uncertainties, strong non‐linearities, …
Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections Open
We used CMIP6 GCMs to quantify climate change impacts on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) across water management zones (WMZs) in Uganda. Future changes are assessed based on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) sce…
Comparison of statistical downscaling methods for climate change impact analysis on precipitation-driven drought Open
General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary tools for evaluating the possible impacts of climate change; however, their results are coarse in temporal and spatial dimensions. In addition, they often show systematic biases compared to…
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Over Iran Open
Climate change affects the energy demand in different sectors of the society. To investigate this possible impact, in this research, temporal trends and change points in heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD), and their simul…
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Sub-daily extreme precipitation over Europe Open
The paper presents 10-year sub-daily rainfall return levels over Europe based on climate model simulations from the 50-member ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5).The model estimates are evaluated based on obse…