Ignacio Presno
YOU?
Author Swipe
View article: Oil Price Shocks and Inflation in a DSGE Model of the Global Economy
Oil Price Shocks and Inflation in a DSGE Model of the Global Economy Open
The 2022 inflation surge has renewed interest in the drivers of inflation, with special attention on the role of oil and other commodity prices given the large increase in these prices post-pandemic. In this note, we use a DSGE model of th…
View article: Exchange Rate Disconnect and the Trade Balance
Exchange Rate Disconnect and the Trade Balance Open
We propose a model with costly international financial intermediation that links exchange rate movements to shifts in the demand for domestically produced goods relative to the demand for imported goods (trade rebalancing). Our model is co…
View article: Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar
Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar Open
We develop a two-country macroeconomic model that we fit to a set of aggregate prices and quantities for the U.S. and the rest of the world. In addition to a standard array of shocks, the model includes time variation in agents’ preference…
View article: Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar
Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar Open
We develop a two-country macroeconomic model that we fit to a set of aggregate prices and quantities for the U.S. and the rest of the world. In addition to a standard array of shocks, the model includes time variation in agents’ preference…
View article: Replication Data for: Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk
Replication Data for: Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk Open
This is the replication package for "Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk," accepted in 2022 by the Journal of Political Economy.
View article: Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets
Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets Open
How are the optimal tax and debt policies affected if the government has the option to default on its debt? We address this question from a normative perspective in an economy with noncontingent government debt, domestic default and labor …
View article: Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk
Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk Open
What is the optimal fiscal policy response to a recession when the government is subject to sovereign risk? We study this question in a model of endogenous sovereign default with nominal rigidities. Increasing spending in a recession reduc…
View article: Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk
Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk Open
What is the optimal fiscal policy response to a recession when the government is subject to sovereign risk?We study this question in a model of endogenous sovereign default with nominal rigidities.Increasing spending in a recession reduces…
View article: Fiscal Stimulus Under Sovereign Risk
Fiscal Stimulus Under Sovereign Risk Open
The excess procyclicality of fiscal policy is commonly viewed as a central malaise in emerging economies. We document that procyclicality is more pervasive in countries with higher sovereign risk and provide a model of optimal fiscal polic…
View article: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Small Open Economy
Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Small Open Economy Open
Is there a link between capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a country with a floating currency? Shocks to capital flows into a small open economy lead to volatility in asset prices and credit supply. To lessen the impact of ca…
View article: Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia
Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia Open
This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the probabili…
View article: Replication data for: Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia
Replication data for: Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia Open
This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the probabili…